Hryvnia will sharply return to 2018 levels - ex-minister
The policy of artificially strengthening the hryvnia is finishing off Ukrainian industry and the government must stop it.
Former Minister of Economy of Ukraine Viktor Suslov stated this on TV channel 112 Ukraine, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“Nobody knows (what the course will be). More precisely, Smoliy, the head of the NBU and Makarov, knows. Perhaps they informed the President.
What will happen to the exchange rate depends on how the Ministry of Finance behaves after the New Year holidays. If it continues to sell large volumes of debt at very high interest rates, then there may be a continued influx of foreign currency from non-residents.
Then the hryvnia exchange rate may remain high or even strengthen. But this will finally finish off the industry.
By the way, I don’t understand why our industrialists behave so quietly. Many industrial enterprises have already stopped or are stopping work. Industry production volumes fell by 7,5% in the past year.
There are huge problems for exporters in general. Industrialists must have their say, the president must hear them and must make both the National Bank and the Ministry of Finance hear them.
The fundamental factor is the trade balance. We have a sharply negative trade balance. The negative balance is growing, already about $11 billion.
That is, economically, the hryvnia should devalue. Therefore, the policy of artificially strengthening the hryvnia must of course be stopped. And then the dollar will begin to rise. It's unavoidable.
I think that next year the dollar will return to the positions it had a year ago,” the economist predicts.
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