The hryvnia faces an “unpredictable journey”
Panic over the threat of a Russian invasion led to a fall in the hryvnia, which may continue and the exchange rate will not return to its previous level.
Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Honored Economist of Ukraine Alexey Plotnikov stated this at a press conference in Kyiv, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“The factors that influence the hryvnia exchange rate lie not in the economic plane, but in the plane of “whether it will start or not, and if it starts, then how.” To what extent panic rumors will be whipped up, to what extent Western countries will tell their citizens to leave Ukraine, to curtail their businesses - all these things are significant,” the economist said.
According to him, there are two forecast options.
“Either the rate will settle at 29,0-29,5, or it will go beyond 30 and then this journey will be very doubtful and unpredictable. But in any case, the situation will not be the same as before. It is unlikely that the hryvnia will strengthen, and the appearance of stability is unlikely to return. It is necessary to reconsider government bonds - it is not clear how to implement them, at what percentage and where. Here there are completely different conditions for Ukraine to enter the commercial markets of the West. That is, the situation has changed, and this was, in principle, predicted. They have always said that the hryvnia is stable until a certain time. Unfortunately, that time has come,” Plotnikov concluded.
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