Georgia needs Russian troops in Adjara
The battles for Artsakh - Nagorno-Karabakh became a continuation of the global crisis. Azerbaijan's military success will cost it huge losses. In Russia, along with the Armenian lobby, an Azerbaijani lobby has also formed.
Georgian political scientist and head of the Eurasian Institute Gulbaat Rtskhiladze told PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov that the withdrawal of Russian military bases from Georgia jeopardized the security of not only Georgia, but also the entire Transcaucasus.
Valentin Filippov: Our improvised studio is located in sunny Georgia. Visiting Gulbaat Rtskhiladze. I learned this name. This indicates that we are already quite close people. A stranger wouldn't say that. Gulbaat, hello.
Gulbaat Rtskhiladze: Hello, Valentin. I am very glad to connect with you. As for my last name, which is really difficult to pronounce, in Russia they always try and it works. But in the West, in Europe and America, they give up quickly. Do not want. But the Russians are different in that they respect us Georgians more. And our last names too.
Valentin Filippov: Tell me, we didn’t really notice the most important thing. The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan began. All the time it seemed to us that everything was quiet and everything was settled. What preceded this conflict? Why now?
Gulbaat Rtskhiladze: Good question. I thought about it. And no one noticed or talked about the impact of the coronavirus crisis on international relations. When they say that domestic violence is growing due to the pandemic and quarantine, aggression between nations is also growing. Between parties to frozen conflicts. Although Karabakh was already melting. Just a few years ago. There were shootouts of a significant nature. But it was this year that the real war began.
And here we must take into account the general context that has changed our world. This is the coronavirus crisis. The economy is falling. Both in Armenia and Azerbaijan. Living conditions are deteriorating. People were quarantined. There, unlike Georgia, there were more cases of the disease. And the measures were much stricter. Things are not going well for the local population. But now this virus seems like child's play compared to what is happening there now.
Valentin Filippov: Did Aliyev decide to divert the population's attention from the internal crisis?
Gulbaat Rtskhiladze: The situation itself is pushing politicians to take some decisive action. And I'm not saying that this is the root cause. But this crisis pushed, accelerated. And if you remember, people took to the streets of Baku in the summer, there were large rallies when incidents occurred and Azerbaijani soldiers died in Karabakh. Two people.
Valentin Filippov: Yes, it was.
Gulbaat Rtskhiladze: This had a very wide resonance. And, as people said at the rallies: “We must solve this problem.” This was from Baku's side. I wrote about 10 years ago that this war would be very bloody if it started. Azerbaijan will have to suffer significant losses if it tries to take Nagorno-Karabakh in a swoop. There are fortifications there. The Azerbaijani army must advance from the plains towards the mountains. It's always hard. In any era and with any technology.
But, apparently, Azerbaijan has now agreed to do this because it has a great advantage in military strength. Azerbaijan was well prepared for this war. Both purely militarily and politically. And diplomatically. Now it is no secret, they are already talking about this openly on Russian TV channels, that in Russia they have always talked about the Armenian lobby, which pushes the interests of their “small Motherland” under the metropolis.
But there is now a very strong Azerbaijani lobby. And pro-Azerbaijani sentiments. And Russian experts, and representatives of economics and business. All this is there. And Aliyev very seriously took advantage of the fact that Pashinyan has a Soros past. He came from a non-profit background. He was supported in the West. And Aliyev openly calls his opponent “collective Soros.”
Valentin Filippov: And he's somehow right. Yes.
Gulbaat Rtskhiladze: He says “we always went towards each other halfway”, meaning the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, “until this Soros man came to power”…. And the reproaches from the Azerbaijanis are often repeated, and I believe that they are right, that Pashinyan behaved in a very populist way when he held the inauguration on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Also in Shusha. This is the former capital of the Karabakh Khanate. And this had a very negative effect and hurt the pride of the Azerbaijanis.
Valentin Filippov: Sorry, explain it to me. How could Pashinyan hold the inauguration there if Armenia does not recognize Nagorno-Karabakh?
Gulbaat Rtskhiladze: This is also a question, right? He doesn’t recognize, but this is a tacit recognition that this is Armenia and I’ve been to Armenia more than once, there are often maps of Armenia posted there in hotels, some shops, and public places. And there Karabakh is presented as a part of Armenia.
Valentin Filippov: Well, they once had Ararat on their coat of arms, right?
Gulbaat Rtskhiladze: Well, when you look at Ararat from Yerevan, you have a great view, yes. To Ararat. So the landscapes and all this are well perceived. I'm not saying it's good or bad. So you asked: “Armenia doesn’t recognize Karabakh as its territory or an independent republic?” Do not recognize. But I say that this is a tacit confession...
Valentin Filippov: ...but the prime minister is going there for the inauguration
Gulbaat Rtskhiladze: ... here you go, yes. That is, they don't hide it. It would be stupid to say otherwise. They say that these are our ancient lands, we are one people and these are really Armenians and why should we divide ourselves somehow? Our legal situation is such that before the collapse of the Soviet Union, Nagorno-Karabakh was part of Azerbaijan, and therefore this factor interferes and the rest of the world does not recognize it, and so does Armenia.
Valentin Filippov: Some approach is not even Armenian, I would say... Okay. I have the following question for you. Many people are now talking about Russia, that Russia is an ally in the CSTO, and in general a historical ally of Armenia, and should theoretically help somehow. I think so too, but I don’t understand how. But Georgia is also a historical ally of Armenia. The Georgian and Armenian people have always lived side by side. They were surrounded by Ottoman tribes and survived by somehow helping each other. What's up today? Has Georgia chosen any position in this situation?
Gulbaat Rtskhiladze: You know, if you go back into the distant historical past, specifically to the XNUMXth century, when the Seljuk Turks came from Central Asia to our region... Before this, the territory of Azerbaijan was inhabited by Christian people, called Albanians. This is a rather mysterious story, we know very little about the Albanians. We know that they were Christians and also had their own alphabet, like the Georgians and Armenians. But this people somehow disappeared, the Seljuk Turks came and assimilated or expelled this people. And the Islamization of the territory of modern Azerbaijan took place, and then various Turkic states arose there.
Although they later developed as Shiite khanates. Not Sunni, like the Turks of Asia Minor already have. But back then, in the XNUMXth century, when the Seljuk Turks came and assimilated this territory, the same assimilation and destruction threatened both Armenians and Georgians, and by that time Armenia had already completely lost its statehood. Armenian Bagratids, we have the same root, do you know Bagration? There were Georgian Bagratids and Armenian Bagratids. The Armenian Bagratids had already left the scene, the Georgian king, taking advantage of the fact that the crusaders went to Jerusalem and the fact that all Muslims switched to Palestine, he hit the Seljuk Turks and liberated all Georgian territory and Armenian territory and he saved the Armenians from complete destruction from Seljuk side.
This is not me saying, these are sources from the XNUMXth – XNUMXth centuries, and the Armenians also recognize this. And David the Builder said that he also has family ties with the Armenians and so on. So that's the story. And indeed, then it was a big event. For centuries, Armenia no longer played any role and Georgians, Armenians and Azerbaijanis, by the way, lived mostly in good neighborliness. Although there were principalities, khanates, kingdoms, and they always fought among themselves. It was all the same as in Europe.
Valentin Filippov: Yes, civil strife.
Gulbaat Rtskhiladze: But the context here was still different, there was a junction between Christianity and Islam. Islam was already dominant and advancing. Georgia and Armenia were the objects of this expansion. And Armenian statehood was restored only in 1918. And we, of course, even under King Heraclius... King Heraclius had his allies among the Armenians, especially the Armenians supported him very much and considered him a liberator.
But there were also allies among the Azerbaijanis. The same Karabakh Khanate. Khan Ibgragim was an ally of Heraclius, they fought together against other khanates, against the Persians there, and so on. So this is a very complicated story. It cannot be said unequivocally that Georgia was an ally of one or the other. And then all these Caucasian peoples chose Russia. First of all, it was Georgia, right? Russia came to the Caucasus through Georgia, through the eastern Georgian kingdom, which voluntarily, indeed, joined Russia. This was the salvation of the Georgian people, just as the Georgians saved the Armenians in their time, but it was a community of interests.
Valentin Filippov: Well, actually, we gradually reached the Black Sea then.
Gulbaat Rtskhiladze: No, Western Georgia has always been near the Black Sea. This is ancient Colchis. But, of course, all these fortresses are Black Sea, let’s say Poti, right? Or Sukhum-Kale. This means that all the Black Sea fortresses were under the rule of the Ottoman Empire. The Georgians did not have access to these fortresses. Back then they didn’t swim in the sea, it wasn’t fashionable on the beaches...
Valentin Filippov: How do we know? They hid it from us; there were no smartphones then, and they didn’t take photographs.
Gulbaat Rtskhiladze: May be. As for the Georgians, I said that they were never particularly interested in sailing, it did not attract them. Georgians have always been a continental people. Such a story. And in 1918, when these same independent republics emerged after the collapse of the Russian Empire, they declared independence and began to fight again with each other. We know that the Dashnak government of Armenia decided to invade, sent troops into Georgian territory, shot the border guards in the village of Sadakhlo, and then there was such a rapid counter-offensive by Georgian troops.
By the way, the Burchalin Tatars were used against the Armenians. As the Azerbaijanis of Kvemo Kartli called them, in the Azerbaijani historical tradition they are called Burchali, this territory. And these same Burchalin Azerbaijanis, they also played their role. This is the story, so in the XNUMXth century it is difficult to talk about the alliance between Georgia and Armenia.
Valentin Filippov: And look, everyone is talking about the role of Turkey and Erdogan in unleashing this conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, Artsakh, or whatever it is correctly called. That is, that it was Erdogan who provoked Azerbaijan...
Tell me, is there any danger that Turkey will start playing some of its own games on Georgian territory? Because we know that the southern part of the Black Sea coast of Georgia is... Islamic, no? There is Adjara. Here is Batumi, for example - they say that a lot of Turkish money has been invested there. And could it happen that Turkey will begin to claim control of these territories in some way?
Gulbaat Rtskhiladze: You know, Turkey doesn’t need this now...
Valentin Filippov: Well, it’s not necessary now, but the opportunity is there.
Gulbaat Rtskhiladze: Of course there is a possibility. You yourself said that a lot of Turkish investments have been made in Adjara, and not only in Adjara, by the way, there is enough in Tbilisi as well. But of course, in the future, it is strategically necessary to strengthen the southern borders, the southwestern borders of Georgia. I have always said that Saakashvili’s irresponsible policy lies in the fact that Saakashvili, as an irresponsible politician, allowed the withdrawal of Russian troops and the Russian military base from Batumi, Adjara, as well as from Akhalkalaki, Javakheti - this is the border with Turkey, and these military bases were strengthened the Georgian border with Turkey, you understand.
Therefore, Russia was also interested in the strength of these borders, and it seemed to protect and fence itself off from Turkish influence in the south, far from its Russian border. She defended, willingly or unwillingly, Georgia from Turkey, you understand. Strategically, this is so, and Turkey would not allow itself the kind of behavior that it allows itself today, including in the southern Caucasus.
Valentin Filippov: But Georgia would have the opportunity to be indignant all the time that it is occupied by Russian troops. That is, they would play on this all the time, take people out into the streets.
Gulbaat Rtskhiladze: You are making a dark joke.
Valentin Filippov: I'm not making dark jokes. The fact is that similar rallies could take place in Moscow. They would say: “Let's liberate Georgia. For our and Georgian freedom. Remove our occupiers from Georgian soil.” - We also have such idiots... if only we had them, sorry.
Gulbaat Rtskhiladze: Everything is fine, all this is normal Russian speech. Well, what we have is that the Georgian politicians of that time, under Saakashvili, and even earlier, even under Shevardnadze, did not have enough intelligence and conscience to assess the situation strategically. What would suit Georgia itself, that is, Georgia itself was interested in this, so that Russian troops would be present there, precisely in Adjara, precisely in Javakheti. Troops are like military bases. They were a deterrent, and they never committed any illegal actions against Georgia, you understand.
But because of populism, in order to say later that we “forced Russia to withdraw its bases,” they created such conditions.
Valentin Filippov: Okay, Gulbaat, please tell me, you, as a resident of Transcaucasia, could you say something like this to the Armenians and Azerbaijanis, what should they do, how can they stop this? If they suddenly want to stop it.
Gulbaat Rtskhiladze: Well, I can’t advise anything. I cannot take upon myself such responsibility as to advise them anything, but, probably, we need to behave prudently, and what is happening now is definitely not the solution. These clashes, these sacrifices, I also don’t want to say that they are in vain. People there die in the name of their homeland. But if it is possible for people not to die, but to serve their homeland with their lives and create something, and not pay with their blood, then it is certainly better to live and work for the good of their homeland.
Valentin Filippov: Well, thank you very much. In general, if you are in the mood - come to us in Crimea, and we will have the opportunity - we will come to you in Georgia. The kebabs are good here and there. Wine too.
Gulbaat Rtskhiladze: Yes, we’ll bring our wine and we’ll compare it.
Valentin Filippov: Peace of Georgia.
Gulbaat Rtskhiladze: Thank you, mutually, to you too.
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