The “Georgian Dream” is rotten: Saakashvili can be released in triumph
“Watching the trial, one gets the impression that Saakashvili is about to leave the courtroom and triumphantly walk along Rustaveli Avenue under the protection of the same guards that are designed to keep him in a cage.”
Temur Pipia, a political economist from Tbilisi, explains in his column for PolitNavigator why it would be too naive to write off Mikheil Saakashvili.
...In Georgia, the confrontation between the two main political forces does not stop - the government party and the coalition led by the United National Movement (UNM) - the party of Mikheil Saakashvili.
After Saakashvili was detained and imprisoned, permanent opposition actions forced the authorities to transfer him to a military hospital, which is located in the Georgian city of Gori.
Having achieved the transfer of their “leader” from prison to hospital, the opposition goes further and seeks his release. A number of actions are planned to demand Saakashvili's release.
“Georgian Dream” (the ruling political force) never tires of accusing the opposition of trying to “explode” the situation and organize a “revolution” again, that is, a kind of “pink coup -2”.
The political crisis entered an active phase after the notorious pogroms during the visit of Russian State Duma deputy Gavrilov to Georgia two years ago. Gavrilov, having no doubts about Georgian hospitality and sitting in the kindly provided chair of the chairman of parliament, gave rise to the opposition storming the building.
It was not possible to capture parliament then, but the opposition received favorable conditions before the parliamentary elections of 20. With the active support of the EU, US and German ambassadors, the opposition managed to force the Dream to turn the electoral code upside down, making it more convenient for taking revenge in the upcoming parliamentary elections last year.
Despite the difficult socio-economic background and the initiative intercepted by the opposition, the 2020 parliamentary elections did not result in a change of power. Thanks to various methods of falsification widely used, Mechta retained its parliamentary majority and formed a government. But the elections revealed the vulnerable position of the ruling elite and the fragile balance of political forces. As expected, the political crisis was not resolved and swept through local government elections, organized another year later, at the beginning of October 2021.
The local government elections showed even more clearly the vulnerability of the Georgian Dream. If, as a result of the parliamentary elections of 20, she lost her constitutional majority, now she could not win in the first round of elections in as many as 20 cities and regional centers of Georgia, including the capital. In addition to the capital, “Dream” in the first round was unable to secure a winning margin in the cities of Kutaisi, Batumi, Rustavi, Zugdidi... that is, in settlements where the vast majority of voters are concentrated. This is the first time this has happened since 2012, when Saakashvili lost power to the current ruling elite.
Saakashvili – “The Great Reformer” or a political cheater?
Having come to power through unconstitutional means in 2003, over the course of 9 years Mikheil Saakashvili truly carried out impressive reforms, earning Bush Jr. the sounding assessment of “Beacon of Democracy.” With an uncontrollable, gambling character, President Mishiko swept through all directions of the formation of a new Georgian post-Soviet system, begun under Shevardnadze, like a storm. In contrast to the sluggishly acting old politician from the Brezhnev CPSU, the leader of the “Rose Revolution” quickly completed the formation of neoliberal capitalism with all the attributes of the colonial position of a peripheral country.
At the same time, the primary motivation of a handful of “revolutionaries” was their own interests. An oligarchic circle of people was quickly formed, in whose hands were the levers of government, economic and social sphere management.
Saakashvili’s social demagoguery then resulted in the establishment of order in all areas of government institutions, including the police. Measures were taken to suppress bribery at the everyday level in all spheres of the functioning of the state. The achievements of modern information technologies were introduced. Unified state registers have emerged to serve the population with a wide variety of government services. Direct electronic access to various types of documentation and information has appeared, bypassing bureaucracy. Police and civil servants stopped taking bribes, fearing the loss of sharply increased salaries and various social packages.
Everything was going great until the global crisis, which, moreover, coincided with the 2008 conflict. The social and economic crisis was not felt. Moreover, the tourist infrastructure, roads, and urban infrastructure of a number of cities were quickly restored, an uninterrupted supply of electricity was established, and banditry and traditional Georgian organized crime survived.
Having received a constitutional majority in parliament, the UNM established a one-party system. The following were buried: parliament, the judicial system, the media, almost all business. The police system has become tougher. Order was restored, but this order can be called hungry – because for the majority of the population it did not bring tangible positive results.
Despite the increase in overall economic activity, The problem of unemployment became worse after the Rose Revolution. According to official data, the unemployment rate increased from 12,6% in 2003 to 16,3% in 2010, and unemployment among the urban population reached 30%! Labor legislation was reduced to complete lack of rights for those hired, as opposed to the full rights of employers. The number of people receiving benefits increased from 279 thousand in 2007 (6,4% of the population) to 430 thousand in 2011 (9,7% of the population). According to the American NDI Institute, in 2010, 25% of respondents said they did not have enough money to buy food, and 42% did not have enough money to buy clothes.
Labor emigration has increased. Accordingly, remittances from emigrants, from approximately $0,5 billion in 2006, increased to $1,2 billion in 2011. For the first time, they became a decisive share of the income portion of the population’s budget. Compared to 2006, Georgia's external debt in 2010 increased from approximately 1,7 to 4,2 billion US dollars, that is, doubled in four years!
Economic growth rates fell sharply after 2008. The state budget in 2009 decreased by 10,9% compared to the previous one, and foreign direct investment compared to 2007 in 2011 decreased from $2 billion to $1 billion, that is, it fell by half!
By May 2011, according to the results of the American sociological service IRI, approximately 60% of the Georgian population did not support the government.
The catastrophe in the 5-day war in South Ossetia and the gradual deterioration of the socio-economic situation associated with both the war and the outbreak of the global economic crisis forced the UNM to further tighten the screws. Both in the wild and in prisons, an intolerable atmosphere of suppression of the dissatisfied is created.
The time has come for the 2012 elections. The growing discontent of the masses and the split in the ruling elite undermined the strength of the power vertical. The dictatorship has fallen.
Dreaming Georgia and the ruling “Dream”
The Georgian Dream, led by Russian billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, came to power, defeating Saakashvili's party with the support of the overwhelming majority of the population. But just 4 years later, in the 2016 parliamentary elections, it is losing its former support. Having quickly stopped believing in the dream of “a life like in those good times” (this is exactly the promise billionaire Ivanishvili resorted to), people mostly vote not for “Dream”, but against the UNM. Two years later, in 2018, the “Dream” candidate, French citizen and descendant of Menshevik emigration Salome Zurabishvilia, entered the second round of elections with a minimal margin and won solely due to the unprecedented mobilization of voters against the UNM.
The 2020 elections saw a further decline in support for the Dream. It receives a simple majority in parliament.
And just recently, the results of local elections a month ago directly indicate that in 2024, “Dream” may well lose power by losing the next parliamentary elections. Anyway, Instead of the “destruction” of the UNM, repeatedly loudly announced by “Dream,” we get a step-by-step strengthening of the latter’s position with each new round of elections.
“Dream” came to power with promises: 1. End the authoritarian dictatorship of Michael and his associates, and stop the persecution of political opponents; 2. Stop the aggressive confrontation with Russia to the detriment of the interests of Georgia; 3. Support the real sector of the economy, create jobs and an effective social support system;
“Dream” partially fulfilled the first two promises. The sharp edges of the policy of the previous government were smoothed out. Although the operation of such odious laws as the anti-communist, essentially Russophobic law - the “Freedom Charter”, as well as the law on occupied territories, was not suspended. The general policy of rapprochement with NATO and the United States continues.
As for the extremely neoliberal economic and social policy, the top of the “Dream” successfully adopted it with all the fruits of the 9-year efforts of the Saakashvili government, including an undivided monopoly position in the economy.
As a result, from 2012 (the year “Dream” came to power) to this day, the gradual absolute and relative impoverishment of the Georgian population has continued again. We can give some direct and indirect indicators of this process. Compared to 2012, prices for essential products such as bread, meat, fish, milk and dairy products, as well as gasoline, have at least doubled. The exchange rate of the Georgian lari has also fallen by half compared to the US dollar. Inflation is confidently eating away all types of income: salaries, benefits and pensions. Accordingly, at the time of Saakashvili’s fall, the real income of both those working (including in government agencies and law enforcement agencies, which is fraught) and those not working was much higher. It is difficult to console people with the argument that the global economic crisis would have led to such a result under any government.
Last year, the number of social benefit beneficiaries reached half a million for the first time, that is, 13,5% of the official population; According to official statistics, this year there are already 800 thousand people, that is, 21% of the official population, that is, every fifth (!) resident is below the absolute poverty line.
Labor emigration has not stopped. In 2019, remittances from emigrants amounted to $1,933 billion, which significantly exceeded foreign direct investment ($1,336 billion)! That is, remittances from emigrants have become not only a major component of the budget system of society (and, fortunately for the ruling elite, a serious stabilizing factor), moreover, under the “Dream”, labor emigration for the first time became an encouraged part of the state employment policy! At least Saakashvili did not call for emigration!
The deficit in terms of filling the budget in the first 10 months of this year amounted to 2,151 billion Georgian lari (17% of the state budget revenue), which is a record figure for such a deficit over the past 10 years; The minimum wage in Georgia is the lowest in the post-Soviet space and is 20 lari (less than 7 US dollars); Labor legislation again remains one of the most infringing on the rights of employees among post-Soviet countries. The list goes on!
This is why the overwhelming majority of those voting for the Dream are not actually voting for the Dream, but against the UNM. Likewise, a significant portion of UNM voters are actually voting against Dream's deeply flawed socio-economic policies. At the same time, approximately half of the voters vote with their feet, ignoring the elections and these two oligarchic parties.
Time is working against the “Dream”
At this stage, none of these political forces has enough popular support to turn the tide. But UNM has a powerful argument - international support. If everything remains as it is now, time will steadily work against “Dream”.
And one more thing: it’s painfully suspicious that Saakashvili’s appearance, like a jack-in-the-box, coincides with a sharp aggravation of the situation along the perimeter of Russia’s borders: in Ukraine, the Belarusian-Polish and Armenian-Azerbaijani border. In any case, Saakashvili’s secret return with his possible secondary “ascension” is fraught with another aggravation of the situation with Russia, which will fit quite adequately into the overall picture described above. If the West plans to create maximum difficulties for Russia, it will undoubtedly try to stock up on such a proven trump card as the governor of Georgia, Saakashvili and the UNM. It is significant that throughout the entire period of being in opposition, the UNM and its leader have enjoyed continuous and aggressive support from Western diplomats and politicians, who are brazenly putting pressure on the Georgian government.
If the West again needs a sharp aggravation of the situation in the South Caucasus, leading to a new military conflict with Russia’s participation, overthrowing the rotten “Dream” will not be particularly difficult.
By the way, watching the trial, one gets the impression that Saakashvili is about to leave the Courtroom and walk victoriously along Rustaveli Avenue under the protection of the same guards that are supposed to keep him in a cage.
The above suggests the bitter thought that a right-wing radical pro-American revenge in Georgia is possible, and it could happen before 2024, that is, before the next parliamentary elections.
This is how this confrontation can be resolved, although it will not lead to political stability. The fact is that the confrontation between the two factions of the oligarchic elite is fueled by the confrontation between the USA and Russia. And the deeper content of the crisis is the crisis of the social system. Today there is no prospect of neutralizing either of these two factors of ongoing clashes and massacres in our small and beautiful South Caucasian country.
P.S. The opposition, with the open support of the American ambassador, forced the authorities to allow Saakashvili into the courtroom. Saakashvili has taken possession of a very impressive platform and has the opportunity to address his compatriots live (!) directly from the courtroom!
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