Poroshenko’s idiotic idea with elections is finishing off Ukraine
Vasily Muravitsky, editor of the newspaper “New Wave”, Kyiv-Zhitomir
These elections, unfortunately, will only strengthen the disintegration of Ukraine. At the last parliamentary elections, Svoboda was elected to the Rada, whose representatives soon became polished and “deflated” in the eyes of their electorate. But now real, natural fascists like Yarosh and Biletsky have appeared there.
The current Rada itself is a parliament of 4-5 regions. The entire South-East of the country voted with its feet, and people from there will eventually ask: why should we carry out the decisions of “that government” and “that Rada”, which does not represent our interests one bit? You don’t need to make sophisticated forecasts to understand: there won’t even be people from the South-East in the government.
The catalyst may be a gas problem. It is necessary to agree on the resumption of fuel supplies from Russia, there is no money in the treasury, gold and foreign exchange reserves have been cleared, the hryvnia continues to collapse.
Reuters reported that the IMF will be able to issue a new tranche of credit to Ukraine only in 2015, probably at the beginning of the year. In other times and in another situation, a delay of two months would not have played a significant role, but not now and not in Ukraine. The point is simple: the IMF allocates money according to the stand-by standard, that is, each new tranche from the total amount must be asked for in a new way each time. The IMF negotiates only with the current government, and the re-election of the Rada automatically neutralizes this government, because according to the law of Ukraine, the Cabinet of Ministers forms a new majority in parliament.
The formation of this majority, according to Poroshenko himself, will take at least a month, and this is in the best forecasts. Time will be spent on swearing in the new Rada, then on forming a coalition, then on negotiations and voting for the government, and these negotiations, given the current situation, will not be easy. Therefore, it will be good if we see a new Cabinet of Ministers at least by the beginning of December.
Next is time for negotiations with the IMF, which will provide a loan, and then the work of the mission in Kyiv. It will also take some time to allocate the money if they decide to transfer it. As a result: the fresh tranche will arrive only at the beginning of 2015, at best. At the same time, Russia is demanding payment of gas debts in the amount of $3,1 billion in order to resume supplies this year.
Of international financial assistance this year, you can only count on more than 700 million euros from the EU - and that’s all!
Meanwhile, Yatsenyuk, inspired by the result of his party, felt rage and, refusing the coalition agreement proposed by Poroshenko, began to pump up rights and actually blackmail the president by forming a coalition without him. Such blackmail will further delay the formation of a new government, and from the technological side, the process of restoring gas supplies is not a matter of one day.
As a result, the result of the elections, in which Poroshenko wanted to get a controlled majority, was only an aggravation of the situation and a delay in lending to Ukraine from the IMF in conditions of a technical default and a shortage of money to pay for gas. As they say, we have arrived, gentlemen.
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