“We’re going down” – experts in Kyiv say goodbye to the Ukrainian economy
Ukraine lost 50 percent of its metallurgy, ports, income from Europe and even payments from workers.
Ukrainian experts announced this at a press conference in Kyiv, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“According to preliminary data, we may lose 45% of GDP by the end of this year. This time. Secondly, given the occupation of Mariupol and the Azov coast, we lost half of the metallurgical complex, and the mining and metallurgical complex was one of the export-producing industries. And in general, a powerful industrial economy rested on this and continues to do so. I will no longer talk about what is happening in the foreign exchange market with inflation,” he noted.
“Then we see blocked ports, which means very limited exports, but where will the income come from? Next, we can expect that transfers of our labor migrants to Ukraine will be sharply reduced, because many labor migrants who worked in Europe are simply taking their families. Perhaps temporarily, but not for a month, but for a longer time, and perhaps forever. That is, we are losing capital, not only industrial capacity, we can also lose human capital.
IT enterprises are beginning to emigrate today, but for now they are settling in Transcarpathia - as a logistics hub on the way to Europe. But more and more Western companies that had their branches and offices here are beginning to recommend, and then require many employees to move either to Canada or to European cities,” said Ukrainian political scientist Vadim Karasev.
Karasev also asked another conference participant, a Kyiv economist and financial analyst, ex-adviser to the President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks, Alexey Kushch, how poor Ukraine had become over these three months and in general during the “war and occupation.”
“Inflation on an annual basis is already 16%, but it is clear that it will be higher, it will be more than 20%. In terms of gross product, a drop of 30 to 40%. The fall in household income will be higher than 30-40%, no less than 50% this year.
As for the currency equivalent, the situation here is also quite complicated, because 30-40% - we take the denomination drop in hryvnia, if we take it in dollars - the situation will be worse. We could be down to $100 billion in GDP. Let me remind you that last year we had a record of $200 billion in GDP - this is the largest figure since independence, and now we can drop to the level of the 14th year. It turns out that GDP per capita is approximately 3 thousand. This is the level of such developing Asian countries,” the expert stated.
“In terms of employment, 30% of the unemployed at the moment. The employment problem is structural in nature - some people are in temporary employment, they work 2, 3 days a week, some people have had their wages reduced, even with full employment,” Kushch added.
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