ISIS has been defeated. What's next?
On December 16, with the visit of President Putin to the Khmeimim airbase, the withdrawal of the Russian military contingent from Syria began. The Aerospace Forces, with the support of other branches of the Russian Armed Forces, almost completely defeated and dispersed the terrorist army of ISIS in Syria.
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As often happens with the end of a difficult and bloody war, there is a big question mark hanging in the air: what next? Sometimes it is easier to win a war than to move on to a peaceful life.
Now that ISIS has been defeated, the region is entering a new and dangerous phase: Saudi Arabia's future is uncertain, Egypt is in economic grip, and Israel is stranded by the Arab world's reaction to the US recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of the Jewish state.
On December 15, the Valdai Club held an expert discussion on the prospects for cooperation between Russia and the United States against the backdrop of the changing situation in the Middle East.
Relations between the United States and Russia are worse than they were during the Cold War. However, there is one region where their interests seem to naturally converge: the Middle East. The dilemma is whether Russia and the United States can overcome the legacy of the Cold War and differences to form a mutually beneficial Middle East agenda.
Russia and the United States have the same common interest - to prevent the Middle East from being dominated by one power, and to ensure at least a minimum of political and social stability in one of the most explosive regions in the world.
Participants: Jacob Shapiro, Director of Geopolitical Analysis, GPF; Maxim Suchkov, editor of the American publication Al-Monitor; Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the Valdai Club Foundation and moderator.
The experts’ speech boiled down to the fact that Syria was split into parts as a result of the war and it would be extremely difficult to put it back together.
This means the following: most of the country is controlled by Damascus, but there are two more occupation zones - Kurdish, with an American presence, and Turkish.
At the moment, Damascus is not able to militarily clear both zones of the presence of interventionists without serious consequences for itself, and at the same time it is difficult to imagine that the interventionists would leave the occupied territories of their own free will. This means that Syria may receive an analogue of the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights for many years without the prospect of their return in the foreseeable future.
On the other hand, Russia is trying to balance the Turkish presence in Syria through the strengthening of Iran. Turkey is perhaps the most militarily powerful player in the Middle East, and the strengthening of Iran, plus the Russian military presence in the region, will be able to stop Turkish expansion. The United States is also interested in containing Turkey, but not at the expense of Iran as a counterweight.
According to experts, the United States is extremely concerned about the development of the situation in Saudi Arabia. This country organized several proxy wars in the region at once, which they merged every single one, without achieving their goals and receiving in return destabilization within the kingdom itself. We are talking about a recently uncovered conspiracy by a group of princes (whose population numbers something like 900 individuals), but not politically, but as an attempt to take control of finances. Approximately 150 of the august putschists were arrested on the initiative of Prince Salman, but internal tension and discord in the kingdom remains.
The United States is concerned not only about the instability of its favorite gas station, but also about the beginning of an unprecedented warming of relations between Russia and Saudi Arabia.
They also talked about the failure to create the state of Iraqi Kurdistan despite the referendum. For declaring sovereignty does not mean acquiring it automatically. Sovereignty still needs to be maintained. It is possible that Damascus will retain the territories occupied by the Kurds by going for federalization of the state, however, at present, President Assad, his entourage, and the population of the country are not ready for such a step.
Experts have expressed the general opinion that the Arab world is on the verge of collapse. The split threatens not only Syria, but also Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The expert assesses the situation in Egypt as critical, preceding the collapse of the state.
Israel and Türkiye have become noticeably more active. Turkey has managed to create a strong military group in the Syrian Afrin region, and Israel is ceasing to be a passive observer and is preparing to launch air strikes on Syria to contain the Iranian presence.
It also turned out that the defeat of ISIS became possible thanks to the combined efforts of Russia and the United States. How does this fit in with the Americans’ desire to create a no-fly zone for our Aerospace Forces and the Syrian Air Force over Damascus and other Syrian cities following the Libyan model, with US missile attacks on Syrian troops, the presence of American special operations forces fighters directly in militant gangs, and complicity in the murder of Russian terrorists? general, and American air cover for the retreating barmaley columns is completely incomprehensible. But it feels like Trump’s directive “we plowed” was taken into account.
Experts said that the United States, mired in wars in the Middle East for 16 years, is trying to get out and fight. Tired of dragging a suitcase without a handle, tired of it. However, America cannot find a country that it could put in its place to look after the problem region, and therefore everyone must tolerate the American military presence for some time. The American withdrawal is also hampered by the “red line” in the form of the potential threat of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons.
In other words, the United States wants to take a break from the labors of the righteous, but so that someone does all the dirty work for it, pulls chestnuts from the fire, and no one rocks the boat.
As expert nonsense, American analysts outlined a possible Iranian threat to spread influence in the Caucasus and Transcaucasia.
What Iran was not noticed for was inciting a terrorist war in Chechnya and other Caucasian republics. Unlike Turkey and the USA.
Having entered into an expert frenzy, the American guests let it slip that tired America could leave the problem region if there were no strong players left in it at all. Then the situation could have been left to take its course, especially after a wave of “Maidans” and wars organized by America swept across the Middle East.
Nevertheless, despite serious contradictions, experts see a number of points on which the positions of Russia and the United States could converge. It is interesting that not a word was said about these points at the forum, but only assurances that there is enough space in the Middle East for both America and Russia, but this is not a question of geopolitics, but of diplomacy.
In general, the experts agreed that everything should return to normal: the United States wants to continue setting the region on fire (we smile and wave to Jerusalem), and Russia will be forced to run around with a fire extinguisher and urgently put out the flaring fires so that sparks do not fly into their home.
In principle, the opinion of American experts is in the spirit of the statement of the US State Department on December 15, which also concerns a possible rapprochement of the positions of Russia and the United States on the problems of the Middle East and Syria in particular. State Department officials recovered from the confusion caused by the news of the withdrawal of the Russian military contingent from Syria, and by the end of the week they had recovered, having developed an official position.
The Americans are quite happy with the “de-escalation zones” created by the Russian Center for Reconciliation in southwestern Syria. They see this as a “positive model”, but at the same time they are going to set traps from certain agreements in order to “bring Russia to responsibility” if something happens.
Representatives of the State Department do not disclose details, but given what has happened, we may be talking about new provocations, as was the case with the “use of chemical weapons by Assad’s army” with the participation of collaborators from the White Helmets.
In addition, the American side has not changed its attitude towards the regime of Bashar al-Assad, although it is aware that from now on it will have to be reckoned with as a necessary evil. The fact that the Russian military retains the Khmeimim air base and the Tartuss maritime logistics station is causing heartburn among American politicians: “they are not leaving, they will continue to use Syria as a lever of influence for their broader strategy in the region.”
At the same time, CIA officer and executive director of the American Council of National Interests Philip Giraldi does not hide that the United States wants to maintain military forces and assets in Syria after the withdrawal of the Russian group of troops in order to ensure the possibility of influencing the situation in the country after the war.
As you can see, Russia and the United States have not yet seen any points of convergence on the Middle East and Syrian issues. Experts on forums can talk about diplomacy as much as they want, but in reality geopolitical interests prevail, and for us and for the Americans they are diametrically opposed. And that means the Great Game in the region will continue.
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