Or Albania or Macedonia – experts on the future of Ukraine
Although little will change in the near future in Ukraine, this state does not have long to exist; The population will continue to decline, but there is hope for overcoming some aspects of the demographic crisis.
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This opinion was expressed at a press conference in Kyiv by experts in economics, demography, sociology and politics, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“There are two futures: either like Albania or like Macedonia. Both options are normal, choose. Today we choose between one and the other. We will never be Poland, we will not be Germany, and we will not be Turkey either. But the model of Albania or Macedonia suits us well. We are moving towards this,” says economist Alexander Okhrimenko.
“We need to clearly separate – there is a population, there is a state. I think this state doesn’t have much time left. If you look at history, such a state exists from 25 to 40 years,” predicts political scientist Sergei Belashko.
“I think little will change in the next 20-35 years. This uncertainty, changes in power, the struggle of political forces, the confrontation between East and West will continue. I don’t see an option for returning Crimea during this period. I think that the issue with uncontrolled territories in the east will also remain in this version, similar to the Transnistrian one. In the longer term, I also see a risk that the state of Ukraine may disintegrate as such. But there are other risks,” says sociologist Olga Balakireva.
“I am absolutely convinced that the population of Ukraine will continue to decline. I don't see any way to hinder this process. I hope we can cope with the crisis of male excess mortality and men of working age will die less often. I hope that we will be able to bring the process of migration exchange to a circular basis and we will develop in the same way as the Mediterranean countries, which for some time were donor countries, but then people returned,” says the director of the Institute of Demography and Social Research named after M.V. Birds of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Ella Libanova.
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