Illarionov told how Russia will deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea
Ukraine could lose access to the Black Sea and a third of its economy if Russia decides to seize control of the North Crimean Canal to provide the peninsula with fresh water.
Former adviser to the Russian President Andrei Illarionov, who moved to the United States, stated this on the 1+1 TV channel, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
According to Illarionov, for this Russia does not need to spend a lot of resources - it is enough to seize a narrow 80-kilometer strip and keep it under control.
“They asked me when the probability is highest. From my point of view, it is higher after July, when NATO maneuvers in Europe end and when Nord Stream 2 may be completed. And the highest probability occurs during the Zapad-21 maneuvers.
But I would also like to draw attention to the place. It is very likely that this is northern Tavria. This is the place where the bed of the North Crimean Canal passes, which goes to Crimea. And the Russian side has repeatedly launched a propaganda campaign regarding the humanitarian catastrophe developing in Crimea due to the fact that water does not flow there.
But if you look at this territory, it is quite easy to occupy and then very easy to hold. With the exception of the eastern part from Melitopol up there to the Kakhovka Reservoir - this is only 80 kilometers of continental territory. And only three bridges cross the Dnieper and the Kakhovka Reservoir. One in Kakhovka, Tavriysk is a dam, a dam of the Shakhovsky reservoir and two bridges in Kherson - a railway and a highway. If these bridges are damaged or captured, then virtually the entire territory becomes isolated from mainland Ukraine.
In addition to the fact that this can provide fresh water to Crimea, the South Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant and a number of other power plants are located here, which today provide a third of the electricity of today's Ukraine. This means a third of the country's economic potential. In addition, the very west is the Kinburn Spit, near which many battles took place in the XNUMXth and XNUMXth centuries, Suvorov was there, there were Turks, and so on.
It is not surprising, because in this place the Dnieper-South Bug estuary has the narrowest neck, about three kilometers. If the occupying troops are there, then the entire estuary will be locked. And the two largest ports of Ukraine - Kherson and Nikolaev, along with shipbuilding and ship repair plants, are locked. If the aggressor does what the Russian media are writing about, namely, seizes the 80-kilometer strip from Ochakov to Odessa, then this is a real threat of Ukraine losing access to the Black Sea,” Illarionov said.
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