Iraqi Kurdistan. In the crucible of controlled chaos
On Monday, September 25, a referendum on independence was held in Iraqi Kurdistan. According to preliminary calculations by the Independent High Commission, almost 93,3% of the votes were cast in favor of separating the territory from Iraq and creating a sovereign Kurdish state, with a turnout of more than 80%.
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Initially, the referendum was planned to be held in 2014, but due to the conflict of interests of the central government of Iraq with the regional self-government of the Kurds, it was decided to postpone the topic of the Kurdish plebiscite until better times. The best of times did not come due to the invasion of ISIS troops into Northern Iraq, as a result of which the referendum on the status of Iraqi Kurdistan became relevant again. From 2014 to 2017, the Kurdish leadership repeatedly announced that a referendum was about to take place, but the topic was removed from the agenda, since the armed units of the Kurdish militia (Peshmerga) were allies of Baghdad in the war with ISIS and in the operation to liberate Mosul. On June 7, 2017, it was finally announced that the vote would take place on September 25, and it took place on time.
In January 2005, an unofficial referendum on the separation of the territory was held in the Kurdish Autonomous Region (the official name of Iraqi Kurdistan), and almost 99% of voters were in favor of this decision. True, this referendum did not have any legal consequences.
Meanwhile, few doubted that the result of the new plebescite would be very different from the preliminary unofficial vote. And few doubt that the current Kurdish referendum will have serious consequences.
First, the 2005 plebscite was held on a voluntary basis, whereas the September 25, 2017 vote was organized by the government of Iraqi Kurdistan and established political parties. Secondly, over 12 years, the Kurds gained control of additional territories as a result of the fighting against ISIS. Thirdly, in 2005 the international situation was not conducive to Kurdish sovereignty.
As one would expect, the referendum in Northern Kurdistan was sharply opposed in Ankara and Tehran, and many other countries were wary of the real possibility of a new state emerging in a region where there has been no stability for the last 26 years. First of all, of course, Iraq, but also Syria and Russia.
President Sultan Erdogan has already called the Kurdish referendum on independence a mistake. And it’s clear why. The transformation of the Kurdish Autonomous Region of Iraq into the sovereign state of Iraqi Kurdistan will become an example for the Turkish Kurds, for whom the Turks for many decades have not come up with anything better than forced assimilation. Taking into account the fact that during the years of the war with ISIS, the Kurds showed themselves to be persistent and skillful warriors, and even capable of managing a complex territory in difficult times, getting a national liberation war of the Kurds in Turkey in order to increase the territories of independent Kurdistan is not a weak day and night nightmare for the Turkish elites and society.
In addition, the Kurdish Autonomous Region has grown into the province of Kirkuk, an Iraqi oil storehouse that Erdogash himself was licking his lips at. There is nothing to say about what the Iraqi government thinks about Kurdish Kirkuk. Despite protests from official Baghdad that Kirkuk has nothing to do with the Kurdish Autonomous Region, Iraqi Kurdish leaders respond: Kirkuk is populated predominantly by Kurds, while Arabs and Turkomans in this territory constitute a small minority.
Alas, Iraq, which has thrown its last strength into the war against ISIS, is unable to somehow influence the leaders of the Iraqi Kurds or return the seized territories.
The sovereign state of Iraqi Kurdistan poses a threat of split not only for Turkey, but also for Syria, which has been heavily damaged by the war with ISIS. Even though Damascus made big concessions to the Syrian Kurds, giving them autonomy in order to enlist their support in the war of liberation with the Basmachi.
With all due respect to the Kurdish people, who have every right to self-determination, we are not just talking about creating a Greater Kurdistan in the territories of Syria, Iraq and Turkey. The situation is such that the Kurds are deliberately going to create a puppet state under the protectorate of the United States.
Despite the hypocritical statement of the State Department that they do not support the separation of the Kurdish autonomy from Iraq, the US plans to divide Iraq into a territory of controlled chaos according to ethnic and religious principles: Kurdish, Sunni, Shiite.
The trick is that the destabilization of Iraq benefits several regional and one global player. The United States receives the coveted geopolitical dominance in the region with the ability to influence Iraq’s neighbors, receiving Kirkuk’s big oil and, if very lucky, Deir ez-Zor as bonuses. The Saudis will realize their great “green dream” - to completely convert the Iraqi Sunnis to their rotten Wahhabism. Living in a hostile Arab environment for decades, Israel will be able to divert the attention of the Arab world from itself through the destruction and destabilization of Iraq.
But it's potential. What is possible now is an escalation of hostilities in the region, spurred by the Kurds’ desire for self-determination. Over the many years of American-NATO destabilization of the Middle East and the war with ISIS, the situation is such that the use of military force by any of the conflicting parties does not seem excessive.
Russia is also concerned about the Kurds singing with the United States. Kurds, whether anarchists or Marxists, will not miss the chance to found their own state, even under American protectorate. If in order to create an American stronghold for control over the Balkans, the Americans had to carry out a complex and long multi-step strategy - to destroy Yugoslavia, demonize the Serbs, inciting the Croats and Albanians against them, subject Belgrade to “humanitarian bombing”, resulting in the Kosovo base “Camp Bondsteel”, then in the zone They don’t even need to fight ISIS – in Kurdish-controlled territories in Syria alone, they have created a dozen military bases and CIA/DIA reconnaissance posts of various calibers. Moreover, in territories where a rifle replaces the law, no legitimation of the American presence is needed in principle.
No matter how great the possible losses in Iraq, the main danger threatens Syria. Greater Kurdistan (with American help) plans to seize its three northeastern provinces. What is currently happening in the vicinity of Raqqa and the oil fields of Deir ez-Zor is eloquent evidence of this.
However, so far everything is not so scary. According to a number of informed observers, the expression of the will of the Kurds of Northern Iraq is not yet a legal act, but a demonstration by them of a tough position based on the results of the referendum. The Kurds, the largest people in the world without their own state, have waited so long that even now they are unlikely to rush things. It is unlikely that Erbil (the capital of the Kurdish autonomy) tomorrow or in a month will demand in the form of an ultimatum from Baghdad the creation of a sovereign Iraqi Kurdistan. The referendum and its result are a strong trump card in the upcoming long and difficult negotiations.
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