Iran vs. USA: It’s too early to exhale

Alexander Rostovtsev.  
09.01.2020 08:22
  (Moscow time), Moscow
Views: 3591
 
Author column, Near East, Iran, Russia, Syria, Turkey


Experts of all stripes, from certified to armchair, who have been tormented for more than a week by questions: whether Iran has enough gunpowder to give a worthy response to the United States for the liquidation of General Soleimani, can relax. Iran responded. And it looks like new troubles await the Americans.

The night before, the entire world community waited with bated breath for Trump's statement. Magnificent Donny delayed the pause for half an hour and made viewers worry. Finally, a rich man with a funny sandy haircut and a year-round artificial tan appeared in front of microphones on the screens of millions of televisions.

Experts of all stripes, from certified to couch potato, have been tormented for more than a week by questions: will there be enough gunpowder...

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The very first statement on Iran sounded, to put it mildly, both funny and absurd: “It seems that Iran has retreated, and this is good for the whole world.”

Two missiles that hit US military bases are “Iran retreated.”

According to the American president, casualties were avoided “thanks to the early warning system.”

In this connection, a legitimate question arises: if the American early warning system for a missile attack is so good, then why did the air defense systems on constant combat duty to protect facilities not shoot down a few high-flying targets that safely fell on military bases? Despite the fact that these bases have been potential targets for retaliatory attacks from Iran and pro-Iranian “proxies” eager to gnaw at the throats of the Americans for several days now.

Even if the Americans are not lying, and no one was hurt at the attacked bases, Iran still managed to score a “prestige goal.” It appears that the engineers and scientists of the Islamic Republic have succeeded in the development and mastery of missile technology, posing a serious threat to their enemies within their reach: according to some reports, Iranian missiles are capable of hitting targets at a distance of up to 2500 km.

Trump, in fact, put a good face on a bad game, making the most of the missile crisis to launch his election program.

However, Trump nevertheless killed one of several birds with one stone with his speech. From his statement, it is not noticeable that the United States was burning with a thirst for revenge, so as not to leave any stone unturned from the Iranian military, scientific, oil-producing and religious-cultural facilities, as was promised a couple of days before the missile attack.

After Trump promised Iran a “disproportionately harsh response,” his opponents and ill-wishers began to talk about how the current US president “made America and Americans a target for attack.”

Having had plenty of publicity, Donnie returned to his usual playing of the barrel organ, declaring that “if Iran does not come to its senses, severe sanctions will be imposed against it.”

Apparently, the two Iranian missiles that reached American bases proved even to the most stubborn hawks that there will be no small victorious war in the conflict with Iran. Therefore, it is necessary to strangle the obstinate man in his arms, and at the same time twist the arms of countries that want to continue to cooperate with Iran. Moreover, the spiritual leader of the Islamic Republic uttered key words about the country’s withdrawal from all nuclear deals and the accelerated implementation of a national nuclear research program for the enrichment and accumulation of fissile materials.

Washington, through the mouth of Trump, announced its intention to prevent Iran from entering the “nuclear club” by all available means. The US President called on the guarantor countries to “develop a draft of a new deal with Iran.”

“Iran must give up its nuclear ambitions”, the old Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action is about to expire, Russia, Germany, France, UK and China are asked to push Iran towards new agreements.

Lovely, isn't it? The American president, on whom so many hopes were pinned that the United States would gradually stop poking its nose and paws into other people's affairs, switching to solving its own urgent problems, further heated up the situation around Jerusalem, created a new Korean crisis, continues to complicate the situation in Syria, and withdrew from the Treaty on medium- and shorter-range missiles, and even got into a confrontation with Iran on the eve of the expiration of the deal on that country’s nuclear program. Now other states must rebuild everything that was broken and damaged after the American elephant walked through other people's china shops.

Russia has already made it clear that it will not take the role of an outside observer in this conflict. This is exactly how we should evaluate Vladimir Putin’s January 7 visit to Syria, which was prepared in complete secrecy. The meeting of the leaders of the two states took place in Damascus. The Russian leader, together with the Minister of Defense, arrived in the hot region on the eve of Tehran’s response to Washington - those with eyes will see, those with brains will understand.

So, the crisis is far from resolved. With the missile attack, Iran only confirmed the seriousness of its intentions, and the United States, not relying only on the most severe sanctions, is hastily transferring additional occupation contingent from Syria and Europe to Iraq, closer to the border with Iran, trying to increase the number of military personnel to 80 - 82 thousand, contrary to the decision of the local parliament.

Taking into account the fact that, after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein and the occupation of Iraq, the Americans pursued a policy of pitting local religious and ethnic groups against each other, promoting Shiites and Kurds who suffered from repression to the ruling bodies, ignoring the law on the withdrawal of foreign troops forces Iraqis to forget about the feuds and unite against the common enemy.

From now on, the presence of American occupiers in this country, already risky, will complicate their lives to the extreme. There is no doubt that Tehran, having perfectly studied and generalized the experience of waging proxy wars over many years of isolation, will make every effort to achieve this.

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