Ishchenko: Nationalists can break Poroshenko’s neck in two weeks
The President of the Center for System Analysis and Forecasting, Rostislav Ishchenko, believes that in the very near future the Ukrainian president may lose power. The expert stated this on Wednesday, October 14, in Moscow during a round table dedicated to the humanitarian aspects of the conflict in Ukraine.
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“Until the Kiev regime commits some absolutely cannibalistic crimes, it is impossible to force it to peace. Therefore, if by some miracle Poroshenko manages to retain power until the spring, then even if Kyiv does not control its own surroundings, the very fact of the presence of legitimate power in Kyiv will constrain the possibilities of intervention. But if his neck is broken in two weeks, and a bloody bacchanalia begins, then external intervention will become inevitable within a month. When will this happen? Based on the current situation, it is better not to limit yourself to pessimism. But tomorrow the situation may change,” the political scientist believes.
“In Ukraine there has been a shift of the entire political spectrum to the right. That is, if instead of communists, the oligarchs from the “Opposition Bloc” become the most left-wing, the center, accordingly, begins to balance between them and the Nazis. In fact, the political struggle does not stop; it is only intensifying against the background of the general deterioration of the situation in Ukraine.
Today Ukraine has actually lost its funding. For a year and a half, the country lived off voluntary donations from the IMF. These cannot be called loans, because no one, most likely, assumed that these tens of billions of dollars would ever be repaid. In fact, now the Ukrainian leadership, which previously did not have independent financial resources, has also lost an external resource.
Against this background, internal contradictions are sharply intensifying. In particular, information recently appeared that the Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine began actively prosecuting nationalists from the Svoboda party for shooting people on the Maidan. That is, after a year and a half, the prosecutor's office saw the light. It is clear that such insights do not happen by chance. It is clear that in the context of a sharp deterioration in the economic situation, Poroshenko and the government as a whole must be wary of the radical Nazis, who did not particularly like them before, and will now receive massive support from the entire electorate dissatisfied with the falling standard of living.
Please note that the US suddenly did not find the $500 million needed for Ukraine to avoid default. But they immediately found 300 million in order to continue the supply of weapons, which, in the end, go to the same right-wing and Nazi battalions. The right flank is arming, organizing and becoming an increasingly significant factor, while the government of Ukraine, which already does not have popular support, against the backdrop of yet another collapse of impoverishment, is essentially moving to a zero rating.
If, on the initiative of the Ukrainian side, another round of war in the Donbass does not begin in the near future, there is a great danger that the government will not maintain itself under the pressure of armed Nazis, and we will observe events similar to those that have been happening all this time in the Donbass, throughout Ukraine.
Now Poroshenko is trying to be proactive and discredit the same “Svoboda”, in order to slightly reduce the danger. But this is unlikely to work, because you can imprison several leaders, but when tens of thousands of armed militants are walking around the country, they will find leaders and a banner. If there is a social demand for a revolution, there will always be someone who decides to lead it.
The Ukrainian government is faced with a choice. Either start active hostilities in the Donbass, which, although leading to defeat, provide certain chances to survive and consolidate the public around itself under the slogan of another Russian “aggression,” or face a serious internal confrontation, which will most likely result in a civil confrontation throughout the entire territory not yet covered by it.
There is no possibility of a peaceful way out of this clinch, since the terms of the Minsk agreements are not being fulfilled. Because when Poroshenko, under the guise of fulfilling these agreements, tried to make fake changes to the constitution, he also faced sharp opposition, including street protests from the right, who considered even such steps to be a betrayal. And if he tries to implement what was dictated to him in Paris, this could serve as a reason for an explosion of right-wing forces. Moreover, we must understand that Poroshenko does not have serious armed support. After he lost his rating, it consisted of political and financial support provided by the United States. Apparently, both have dissolved,” says Rostislav Ishchenko.
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