Results of Putin’s visit to Minsk: important events are taking place on the border with Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Minsk on Monday was also presented as “strategic.” However, the final press conference that ended the meeting between Putin and Lukashenko was a little disappointing.

The presidents were in a good mood and clearly pleased with the result, but they didn’t say anything so strategic that it was worth bringing almost the entire Russian elite to Minsk.

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It was clear that the main, strategic content of the conversation was not voiced, and in the previous article I wrote that we will be able to learn about much of this only after the plan begins to be implemented. We didn't have to wait long. Only three days passed, but during this time several important events occurred at once, which, most likely, are directly related to the visit.

_{The first thing that catches your eye is that both presidents almost simultaneously held a large-scale meeting with the military.}

Much has already been written about how Putin and Shoigu created the strategy at an extended meeting of the Board of the Ministry of Defense. But Lukashenko also gathered his generals on Thursday to sum up the results of a recent test of the combat readiness of the armed forces and other exercises, of which there were especially many in Belarus this year.

_{Not much was captured in the frame, but the general message can be expressed with the words “if you want peace, prepare for war,” with which Father commented on the movements of Russian and Belarusian troops in Belarus, calling not to look for “any conspiracy theories” in them.}

In principle, one could not expect any other words from him - Lukashenko is not a fool to voice his military plans to the delight of enemy intelligence services. However, a serious reason for reflection and conspiracy theories appeared the day before.

Resolution No. 882, signed by Belarusian Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko on December 19, limited entry, entry and temporary stay in the border strip in the territory of three districts of the Gomel region on the border with Ukraine. The exception is those who need to be there for work or service, who live in these areas or visit close relatives.

Since the places there are sparsely populated, there will be practically no prying eyes. A similar restriction was previously introduced, but was later canceled. Why the border area was closed is not officially reported and this only plays into the hands of conspiracy theorists.

In any case, there is no smoke without fire and something serious is happening at the border and some preparations are underway.

Another news trigger was the commentary of the Russian Foreign Ministry on the resonant statement about aircraft converted to carry ammunition “with a special warhead.” Maria Zakharova, it seems, refuted plans to supply Minsk with non-peaceful atoms, but did so with a caveat - in the event of an escalation of threats from NATO against the Union State, Russia reserves the right to accept additional ones to ensure the security of the Russian Federation and Belarus.

_{This also applies to nuclear weapons. This sounded threatening: we, of course, do not want and do not plan, but it is better not to provoke us into this. I hope this hint reached the recipients.}

Zakharova only confirmed my words that now hints about nuclear weapons are just rhetoric aimed at cooling the ardor of ill-wishers, but the circumstances under which this will become a reality were discussed at the meeting.

Interesting news is happening not only in the military, but also in the integration area. On Wednesday, Putin received the Secretary of State of the Union State Dmitry Mezentsev in the Kremlin. This appeared to be the first public meeting between the Russian president and him in a very long time. Perhaps in June 2019, Mezentsev accompanied Putin during his previous visit to Minsk, being ambassador to Belarus, but he accompanied him, nothing more.

Therefore, a meeting with Mezentsev means that integration with Belarus is now a priority. We discussed the progress of the implementation of union programs and cannot say that the discussion went smoothly. The press release included Mezentsev’s words that previously proposals for them were prepared “semi-accidentally.” It seems that we are awaiting a revision and systematization of the Union's integration programs, which cannot but rejoice.

Optimistic news also came from Minsk. After the meeting of the presidents, the lower house of the Belarusian parliament ratified an agreement on general principles of taxation for indirect taxes - VAT and excise taxes. The main thing in the document is the creation of a supranational tax committee, which will monitor the parties’ compliance with the agreements reached.

Until now, Lukashenko has avoided in every possible way the creation of any supranational bodies, especially those with control functions.

_{Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk, who was present at the negotiations, and $610 million in annual transfers from the Russian budget, designed to compensate for the losses of the Belarusian budget, probably helped to convince him. The unification of tax systems is still a long way off, but an important and long-awaited first step in this direction has been taken.}

In addition to parliament and tax authorities, the Belarusian Ministry of Industry was also pleased, where they stated that the Belarusian side is ready to sign an agreement on a common industrial policy, which is planned to be signed this month. Apart from the fact that it will help “synchronize production,” nothing has been said about the agreement, but it could potentially be no less important than the tax agreement.

So much for the strategy. The most important agreements on economic integration have been murmuring for decades, and even the notorious 28 programs were, rather, a declaration of intent than a legal document.

_{Now, finally, before our eyes, real mechanisms are being created that will ensure the progress of integration.}

As for the military component, here, as it should be, not everything is being told to us, but from the surge of activity on both sides it is clear that something important is happening.