“The result will be the dismantling of the current government of Ukraine and a return to the fold of Russian civilization”

What will 2017 bring to Donbass and Ukraine? Will the regime of Petro Poroshenko change, will the Ukrainian authorities begin to implement the Minsk agreements and transform the country into a federation, or will Kyiv finally become ours thanks to the successes of the militia? On the prospects for resolving the Ukrainian crisis "PolitNavigator" interviewed experts.

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Vitaly Leibin, editor-in-chief of the Russian Reporter magazine:

“I think that next year the Minsk agreements will not be implemented again. This is impossible under the current Kyiv regime. Something tells me that the Kiev regime will not collapse next year. But even republics have limits to their patience. If there is an aggravation of the same level as at the turn of 14-15 in Debaltsevo, then this time, I think, the armies of the republics will reach at least the borders of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. But we can’t expect denazification of Ukraine next year.”

Denis Denisov, expert at the Institute of CIS Countries:

“In connection with global processes, the situation will naturally change in Donbass. First of all, this is due to changes in the leadership of the State Department and the figure of the US President, the upcoming elections of the President of France and the Chancellor of Germany next year.

Apparently, the general situation will develop in a positive way for the Donbass republics, because potentially the people who are most likely to come to power in the United States and European countries are much more loyal to the situation in Donbass in terms of understanding the interests and goals of the republics.

At the moment, the LDPR simply does not have real resources and the need to seize new territories by armed means. It must be admitted that for now the situation will remain in the “status quo” regime that exists at the moment.

Another thing is that with the change in the international situation, there will be parallel international pressure on Ukraine demanding compliance with the Minsk agreements. And this will have a positive impact on the life of the republics. After all, the key idea of ​​the existence of the Donbass republics is to change today’s Ukraine, reformat it, and turn the anti-Russian project into at least a loyal, or even friendly, project. This is a key task for the next year.”

Alexey Karyakin, ex-speaker of the LPR parliament:

“Today there is a positive trend in that European countries are beginning to understand what is happening in Ukraine and Donbass. Accordingly, they are beginning to demonstrate pressure on Kyiv. I think that in the coming year the Minsk Process will move forward.

Today, clear harbingers of the agony of the Kyiv regime are already visible. In fact, these are the last gasps of the Poroshenko regime.

And if suddenly, due to the fault of Kyiv, hostilities begin again, our army has already proven that it has learned to fight, and we can not only defend ourselves, but also successfully attack. Let me remind you that here we stand for our homes, and this idea lives in us. They are occupiers on our land, so they die here out of stupidity.”

Armen Gasparyan, analyst, radio host:

“It is obvious that the current Ukrainian political government is least interested in holding any negotiations. The proof of this is the constant torpedoing of the “Minsk format” - what we have observed throughout the past year, attempts to set some strange conditions, without fulfilling anything at all. Everything indicates a total reluctance to look at things soberly and evaluate everything that has happened to the country over the past three years.

Next year, of course, there may be a change in political power, because the country is being shaken by a very severe economic crisis. Thanks to the activities of the gentlemen who came to power, Ukraine is turning from an industrial-agrarian country into a feudal one. Another question is what the new Ukrainian government will be like. It is obvious that at some stage the ultranationalists will try to come to power themselves, but then they will simply be swept away by the people, because it is clear that in the form in which they now exist, there can be no prospects.

I really want to believe in the triumph of reason of the Ukrainian authorities, the realization that it is time to sit down at the negotiating table and implement the Minsk format. This is in the interests of everyone, it’s not too late to come to your senses.

In general, Ukrainian history moves in full accordance with the historical past. Everything that has been happening since 2014 is a repetition of the events of 1917-1920. It is clear that the result of this will be the absolute dismantling of the current Ukrainian government and the return of the country to the fold of its own civilization, Russian civilization. Another question is when this will happen.”

Alexander Chalenko, journalist:

“These things cannot be predicted. They seem to be in the air, but they can come true at any moment. Maybe today, or maybe in 20 years. Who, for example, could have predicted on August 18, 1991 that a week later the Supreme Soviet of the Ukrainian SSR, which was controlled by the communists, would proclaim independence? Nobody. Independent Ukraine could have collapsed as early as 1991, but managed to hold out for 25 years. Could Buzina and I have in October 2013, when he called me in the evening and cursed Yanukovych for a whole hour because he wanted to sign the European association, that in less than six months Crimea would become Russian, and the yellow cards would disappear forever from the official institutions of Donetsk and Lugansk? black flags?

We knew this would happen. Some day. But they didn’t know that very soon.

Therefore, if Kyiv is liberated in 2017, I will not be surprised. It must be liberated because it is a temporarily occupied Russian city. I really want this. This may or may not happen. But it is a fact that this will eventually happen. And, believe me, 95% of Kiev residents will happily receive Russian passports. And after 5 years, the PolitNavigator website will not be able to find a single person in Kyiv who would admit that he supported either the first or the second Maidan.

The most important thing is that we, Russians, understand that we are liberating Kyiv not as the “capital of Ukraine,” but as a temporarily occupied Russian city.”