Due to the blockade of Donbass, the NBU worsened its economic growth forecast
Taking into account the effects of the blockade of the uncontrolled part of Donbass, the National Bank revised the previous forecast for economic growth in 2017 from 2,8% to 1,9%.
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The regulator's press service reported this.
“Due to the seizure by terrorists of operating enterprises in the Ukrainian legal field, the breaking of the chains of production and supply of finished products, the volume of output of metallurgy and mining products, coke, and electricity will decrease. As a result, economic growth rates in 2017 may be lower than in the January forecast by 1,3 percentage points. due to the trade blockade,” the press service noted.
It is indicated that this negative effect of the blockade will be mainly compensated by other factors, primarily by a more favorable price environment in foreign markets for Ukrainian export goods (metals, iron ore, grains) than previously predicted. “The net positive effect on economic growth from the favorable situation in foreign markets will be approximately 0,4 percentage points,” the NBU added.
“Thus, taking into account the effects of the blockade and favorable external conditions, the National Bank revised the previous forecast for economic growth in 2017 from 2,8% to 1,9%,” the National Bank reported.
Let us remind you that the NBU also provided the IMF with macro forecasts revised towards worsening, taking into account the blockade of the LDPR.
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