Expulsion of the “Soros” and abandonment of Donbass: Pogrebinsky on Zelensky’s risky game
By initiating a change in the composition of the Ukrainian government, Vladimir Zelensky’s team is trying to reduce the influence of the “Soros” in favor of local oligarchs, but at the same time sending signals to the West about their readiness to maintain an anti-Russian course. At the same time, work begins in Kyiv to abandon the Minsk agreements; in response, Moscow will be able to repeat the Crimean scenario with Donbass.
Kiev political scientist Mikhail Pogrebinsky discusses this on his Facebook page, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“It makes no sense to criticize Zelensky’s inadequacy. Where does it come from - this adequacy? But the resignation of the government of the “Soros” (well, not all of them, some remain for now), and especially Ryaboshapki (for whom the ambassadors of the seven “drowned” in an unprecedentedly defiant manner), speaks of a new phase of the Ze-presidency.
Obviously he (or he/she who stands behind him) started a risky game. Two scenarios are being implemented in parallel.
One is tactical. Assure the West (primarily the USA) that, despite the rotation of the government (the West was not consulted?!) and rapprochement with the oligarchs, Ze promises the preservation of the Euro-Atlantic course, reinforced by rudeness (ultimatum - Ze gives Moscow a year to recognize surrender) to the Russian Federation. This should work, and Ukraine will receive the expected IMF tranche and military and other assistance from the United States.
The second is conditionally strategic. Refusal from Minsk2, and at the same time from Donbass, without the risk of lifting EU sanctions on Russia. For this purpose, preparations are being made for the adoption of the law on the referendum and the referendum itself.
The majority will vote to refuse to implement Minsk-2 (no problem coming up with a wording!). This will provide arguments for Paris and Berlin - “we are a democratic country, we cannot go against the opinion of the majority of citizens.” Therefore, we are closing the topic of reintegration of Donbass in the medium term, placing responsibility on Moscow (which does not want to agree to “peace on Ukrainian terms”) for preparing the annexation, now of Donbass. After which, as Ze said in an interview with the Guardian, “we will deal with internal problems,” Pogrebinsky predicts.
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