“Sorry, friend Volodya”: Lukashenko’s bet on the West did not work
Yesterday, quietly, without explanation or apology, 32 Russian “heroes” captured near Minsk returned to Russia. Why 32? Because one of them turned out to have a Belarusian passport and, accordingly, he remained in Belarus. What happened to him is unknown.
The Russians were arrested with great scandal, amid cries about interfering in the Belarusian elections and sending militants to remove Lukashenko. General Ravkov, who, by the way, is the Secretary of the Security Council, actually announced that Russia was preparing a military invasion, saying that there were about two hundred “militants” in total, and two more groups were being formed near Pskov and Nevel. Belarusian-Russian relations, already not particularly warm, have collapsed almost to the level of the Cold War.
No clear evidence of the guilt of Russian citizens was provided, and no weapons were found on them either. All the nonsense that the Belarusian side was repeating about military-style clothing, behavior atypical for Russian tourists, and oddities with air tickets as legal evidence of guilt looked phantasmagorical. In general, it was clear to any reasonable person that the motives for the capture of the Russians were political, and later the ears of the Ukrainian SBU clearly appeared behind him.
170 “militants” with knowledge of sniper and explosives, whom General Ravkov could not catch and who, according to him and Lukashenko, were sent to organize mass unrest, never showed up. The riots passed, but no one saw the “militants” from the Wagner PMC. Agree, the presence of specialists of such a profile and in such numbers would radically influence the course of events.
Now the prisoners have been returned. Without commenting in any way, without renouncing the charges brought against him and, thereby, without putting an end to the scandal. But thanks for that. People's destinies are more important.
But that's not all. There has been a radical turn in the Belarusian official rhetoric on the topic of “Russian intervention”. Yesterday, it was no longer blamed on the oligarchs and puppet masters, but on Navalny and his Open Russia, whose activists were openly featured in the riots in Minsk. So, less than two weeks after the hysterical “breaking of dishes,” Lukashenko takes a step towards Moscow. Sorry, they say, friend Volodya, they didn’t see which one of yours it was. Today I already called Putin and said that the defense of Belarus is no less than the defense of the Union State.
Only it was not a step, but a rebound with changing shoes in flight. The bet on the West did not work. Pompeo, with whom he had recently hugged, did not recognize the elections and called for new ones. Europe is introducing sanctions and hinting at the option of Tikhanovskaya playing the role of “Belarusian Guaido.” Now he is forced to turn to Russia for support, and the word is up to her.
What should this word be? Firstly, it is necessary to clearly separate the concepts of “Belarus” and “Lukashenko”. A bet on Lukashenko may help him prolong his rule, but it will tear the people of Belarus away from Russia, for most of whom Lukashenko is already a usurper, and a bloody one, and any integration agreements signed with him will be met with hostility by a considerable part of the population and simply not recognized by the international community, and contradictions in Belarusian society will only grow.
Lukashenko is already the past. But Tikhanovskaya or Makei are not the future yet. And they won't necessarily be the future. The model of transit of power imposed by the West is unconstitutional. And the fact that Belarusians supported Tikhanovskaya is an illusion that pro-Western forces are trying to pass off as reality. Tikhanovskaya, as a politician, is zero. People did not vote for her, but for new presidential elections, with equal conditions for all candidates, transparent vote counting and no reprisals against opponents.
But another person can give the same thing, and within the framework of the Constitution, and not revolutionary lawlessness. The constitutional mechanism exists. If the presidency remains vacant, the prime minister becomes acting president and elections are held within 30 to 70 days. Even earlier than Tikhanovskaya promised and without transferring power to shady personalities from her circle. Perhaps this is the last chance to bring Belarus back from the brink. It's just a matter of convincing Lukashenko.
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