What changes in the dollar exchange rate do experts predict in 2021?

The dollar exchange rate for Russians is one of the topics that never loses relevance. Even if there are no savings in the tens of thousands, the values ​​of the American currency are still monitored. And if the dollar rises in price, everyone expects an inevitable increase in prices for domestic goods. Experts from the financial portal Vyberu.ru have figured out what affects the dollar exchange rate in Russia and when to buy foreign currency.

What affects the dollar exchange rate in the Russian Federation

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Russians are as interested in the exchange rate of the American currency as they are in the cost of a barrel of oil. At the same time, several factors influence the rise or fall in price of the national currency:

1. Anti-Russian sanctions and the political situation in the world. As soon as information appears that a package of restrictions has been adopted or extended against the Russian Federation, the ruble becomes cheaper.

2. Decrease or increase in oil and gas production volumes.

3. Acceleration of inflation processes or their slowdown.

4.Increase or decrease the key rate, which is approved by the Bank of Russia.

5. Currency interventions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, that is, injections of dollars or their redemption from circulation.

6.GDP growth and the effectiveness of import substitution policy.

7. Rate of vaccination in the Russian Federation.

8.The volume of foreign investment in the Russian economy.

9. A gradual decrease in the volume of dollars in the reserves of the Russian Federation and their turnover during international payments.

10. Force majeure circumstances, such as man-made disasters and cataclysms, natural disasters, wars.

Any of these factors affects the exchange rate, so it is difficult even for experienced analysts to predict in advance whether the Russian ruble will become cheaper or more expensive. But in the long term, any currency in the world becomes cheaper, including the euro and the US dollar.

Is the dollar really growing all the time?

The dollar does not always rise in price against the ruble. If you look at the change in the ratio of the pair: US dollar - Russian ruble, you can see both periods of decline and periods of growth. But there are actually fewer periods of weakening of the American currency. The dollar in the Russian Federation shows greater stability than the ruble. This is due to several factors:

-a large share of imported raw materials in the cost of finished products of Russian goods;

- Russians’ distrust of the national currency as a means of savings;

- on the eve or anticipation of a crisis, there is a high demand for dollars among Russians;

-a stable ruble is unprofitable for the government, since a large share of the budget is formed by exporters, therefore, the more dollar revenue they receive in terms of rubles, the more taxes they will pay;

-decrease in the cost of a barrel, despite the fact that the Russian Federation is seeking to move away from the economy’s dependence on raw materials, while this factor is significant in the structure of the economy;

-international sanctions against the Russian Federation;

-fear of investors to keep money in the Russian economy given the unstable geopolitical situation in the world.

The longest period of stability of the ruble against the US dollar lasted no more than 2 years. During this period, the US currency fell by 35%. But this was followed by a collapse of the ruble by 54%. Now the situation with the national currency of the Russian Federation is relatively stable, but how long this will last is unknown.

When to buy dollars

According to Russian and world analytical centers, there is no point in expecting a serious fall in the dollar exchange rate. Therefore, for those who want to store part of their capital in foreign currency, it is more profitable to buy it constantly. For example, from each salary by 5-10% of the amount of income, then within a year you will be able to reach the average rate.

It is more objective to look at the profitability of savings in foreign currency over a period of more than two years. If during this period money from the reserve is not needed, then buying a dollar is profitable. If the period is shorter, a situation may occur when American currency is bought at 75 rubles and sold at 70. In this case, losses are inevitable.

Only some experienced and especially successful traders manage to make money on currency speculation; everyone else loses money on such transactions.

Analysts do not advise buying currency on holidays and weekends. During these periods, an unfavorable exchange rate is set for it. The exchange is not working, and banks are planning for a possible increase in the exchange rate for the next trading day. In order not to incur possible losses, financial and credit organizations increase the gap between the sale price and the purchase price of the American dollar. The link contains the current current dollar exchange rate.

Exchange rate guidelines for the dollar-ruble pair from Russian analysts

Expert opinions vary significantly. Some believe in an optimistic scenario and that the national currency of the Russian Federation will strengthen. Others are more pessimistic, and therefore predict less rosy prospects for the ruble until the end of 2021:

1.Ministry of Economic Development gave a forecast of the average ruble exchange rate for 2021 at the level of 72,4 rubles. This value is based on the thesis of maintaining demand for hydrocarbons and the gradual restoration of world economies, and therefore the strengthening of the national currency of the Russian Federation.

2.Sberbank suggested that the dollar would fall to the level of 67 rubles by the end of the year.

3.Gazprombank less optimistic, its analysts predicted a value range from 71 to 72 rubles per US dollar.

4.Alfa-Bank at the beginning of the year he indicated the value of the dollar at 80 rubles. The company's analytical center did not provide a forecast until the end of the year.

Foreign analysts, according to Bloomberg, indicated the average value of the dollar against the Russian ruble for 2021 at 73,8 rubles at the beginning of the year and 70,5 rubles at the end.

Source: www.vbr.ru.