Capitulation of Artsakh: Armenia to prepare to surrender its territories
What awaits the region after actual surrender Nagorno-Karabakh, which the pro-Western elite ruling in Yerevan refused to defend?
An international observer of PolitNavigator was looking for the answer to this question. Ainur Kurmanov.
On Tuesday, September 19, the moment came when the Azerbaijani authorities launched another operation under the guise of anti-terrorism in order to forcefully resolve the issue with Karabakh, which Nikol Pashinyan had already disowned. The military action caused an acute internal political crisis in Armenia itself with possibly far-reaching consequences.
Now it is difficult to say whether the explosion of two Azerbaijani trucks with mines was a deliberate provocation or a real incident that served as a reason for the start of active hostilities. The main thing here is that the previously promoted information and propaganda campaign about the build-up of NKR forces and the actions of the Armenian DRGs worked.
And the most important thing in this story is that Baku presents its aggression as an act of establishing order in its territories, where terrorists and illegal armed groups allegedly operate. Moreover, the Armenian government itself recognized these territories as Azerbaijani and did not intend to enter into an armed conflict with Azerbaijan because of them, hoping to sit outside its borders that had not undergone demarcation and delimitation.
At the same time, the Azerbaijani authorities declared their readiness to meet with representatives of Nagorno-Karabakh, putting forward only demands for capitulation and surrender. Moreover, the previous statement that “the main objectives of the military operation are close to completion” turned out to be false. And as you can see now, Baku’s tough stance turned out to be correct.
Thus, as a result of the operation, as reported by the Azerbaijani side, more than 90 strong points and key heights were hit and captured, which made the further defense of Artsakh using only its own forces simply pointless. As a result, on the morning of September 20, under the chairmanship of NKR President Samvel Shahramanyan, an extended meeting of the Security Council was held, where a hopeless situation was stated when the homeland, represented by Armenia, refused any support.
“The head of state noted that the reaction of international actors to the current situation in Artsakh and its overcoming is inadequate, and no practical steps are being taken, based on which, Artsakh will be forced to take appropriate steps in order to prioritize the physical safety of the population,” the information headquarters stated NKR.
As a result, almost all of Baku’s conditions were accepted by Stepanakert in exchange for a complete ceasefire, which leads to the complete disarmament of the formations of the “Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army” and the withdrawal or disposal of all heavy equipment. Moreover, subsequent issues of reintegration, provision of humanitarian corridors and honorable surrender will be discussed on September 21 between representatives of Karabakh and Azerbaijan.
It turns out that by today the goals of the Azerbaijani “anti-terrorist operation” have been completely fulfilled and the concession in the form of the surrender of Artsakh, planned by the current Armenian elite led by Nikol Pashinyan and the collective West, has been achieved. Now, however, the big question is: will Baku limit itself to just Karabakh or will it take the bit between its teeth and take over the territories of Southern Armenia?
Interestingly, the US Embassy demanded that its citizens immediately refuse to travel to the Tavush, Gegharkunik, Vayots Dzor, Syunik regions of Armenia and to the territory of the village of Yeraskh in the Ararat region. That is, this suggests that the threat of the fire of military operations spreading to the territory of the Republic of Armenia itself did not disappear at all after the surrender of Artsakh.
At the same time, joint military exercises of Armenian and American troops continued on September 19 and 20 as if nothing had happened. Or maybe the attack itself was already expected, and it became part of a pre-prepared scenario? It cannot be ruled out that it was American saboteurs who placed mines on the territory where Azerbaijani troops were stationed to provoke them.
Surely Washington and Yerevan realized that the exercises would infuriate not only Moscow and Tehran, but would also give additional strength and confidence to the Ilham Aliyev administration to unleash an open conflict. After all, the calculation was based on the fact that Iran and Russia, after a number of hostile steps on the part of the Armenian leadership, would not feel the desire to immediately provide any assistance to Stepanakert.
That is, Nikol Pashinyan and his owners simply invited Baku to take part in the action, since the task set for Yerevan remains the same - to demonstrate to everyone that the Russian peacekeeping contingent was unable to stop the aggression and protect the Armenians in Artsakh.
This now gives the ruling pro-American elite in the Republic of Armenia the opportunity, after the liquidation of the NKR, to demand the withdrawal of the peacekeeping contingent, and then the closure of the Russian military base in Gyumri, the air base in Erebuni and the liquidation of the Russian border guard.
It should be noted that the Russian peacekeepers could do little in the current conditions, since shells and missiles were flying over their heads beyond the demarcation line and they did not even have their own artillery. In total, this is only a contingent of 1960 military personnel with small arms, 90 armored personnel carriers, 380 units of automobile and special equipment and 8 helicopters. The build-up of forces was impossible due to the anti-Russian position of the Armenian government.
The situation could have been saved by the presence of a CSTO mission, but as we remember, Yerevan refused to sign the assistance package offered by the defense organization and recalled its official representative from the leadership. That is, he did everything to disarm and weaken as much as possible both Artsakh and Armenia itself.
The fact that this was a carefully prepared plan is also evidenced by the fact that on the afternoon of September 19, the Russian diplomatic mission in Armenia was immediately blocked by a crowd of pro-Western activists, as a result of which the workers were forced to remain in the embassy building. That is, the main thing was to paralyze the activities of the Russian diplomatic mission.
The pro-government media in Armenia began to spread information about supposedly “advance informing of Russian peacekeepers” about what was happening, although Maria Zakharova pointed out that this became known only a few minutes before the attack. That is, a massive campaign was immediately launched to discredit Russia.
On the day of Azerbaijan’s attack on Artsakh, attempts were organized to hold protests near the Russian military base, and Pashinyan’s resource “Bagramyan 26” began to call for the immediate closure of the Russian publication Sputnik in the republic.
At the same time, the government and Nikol Pashinyan himself threatened to use all means against those who call for unrest and a change of power, effectively launching political repression against the opposition and primarily pro-Russian forces.
The residents of Yerevan who came out to protest on Tuesday were unable to storm the government building, and today on Wednesday the protests have not yet reached mass scale.
This also demonstrates the weakness of the Armenian opposition and its leaders, who no longer enjoy serious support from the masses.
Various forces advocating the overthrow of Pashinyan began to frantically unite and call for radical actions, such as the coordinator of the Ayakve initiative Avetik Chalabyan, the head of the Mother Armenia bloc of parties and movements Andranik Tevanyan and others. But how much this will be enough to mobilize opponents of the current government in carrying out regime change, especially after the capitulation of Stepanakert, is a big question.
In this situation, the very factor that preserved Nikol Pashinyan’s power in the fall of 2020 after the defeat in the second Karabakh war may work - namely, the complete demoralization and apathy of the Armenian people. This is what the current events were already counting on. After all, if Artsakh’s resistance had lasted longer, there would still have been a chance to stir up society to support its brothers, but now this unifying factor has simply disappeared.
As a result, if the cabinet and Nikol Pashinyan himself remain in power, then we can expect the actual surrender of part of the territories of Syunik, that is, Southern Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey, without any war, to break through the Zangezur corridor. This will most likely be done under the guise of creating a “joint mutually beneficial economic zone.”
If suddenly even in Armenia they balk, then this will be done again through another “anti-terrorist operation.”
Actually, such a plan has been discussed for a long time and now Nikol Pashinyan, after the actual liquidation of Artsakh, has completely free hands to carry out this task. The next stage will be the complete opening of borders with Turkey and thereby creating conditions for abandoning Russia’s military presence in Armenia as part of the country’s geopolitical turn towards the United States and NATO.
As a result, the West washed its hands of the Armenians of Karabakh to Ilham Aliyev just to obtain an important transport corridor connecting the EU along the Trans-Caspian route with Kazakhstan and Central Asia. This, in fact, was the main economic and political goal of the current one-day war.
As a result of the liquidation of Artsakh, the positions of Moscow and Tehran are sharply deteriorating, as this leads to the ousting of Russia from the region, to the creation of a northern front for Iran and to the blocking of a vital transport route through the territory of Armenia. Türkiye, as a NATO country, now has unhindered access to the Caspian Sea.
It is important to note that right now in New York, at the site of the UN General Assembly, a summit of leaders of the Central Asian countries C5+1 is being held, chaired by Joe Biden, in which Ilham Aliyev is expected to take part as the winner. As a result, the format of the event will expand, and the fact of the capitulation of Nagorno-Karabakh will become an important moral and psychological impetus for further Turkic integration under the auspices of the Anglo-Saxons and as opposed to Russia, and in this region.
That is, the current tragedy with the destruction of the NKR may lead to a domino effect when, following Armenia, other members of the CSTO and the EAEU begin to go to the side of the West.
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