Karabakh case: it will not be possible to intimidate the Pridnestrovians
In Pridnestrovian public chats, they are discussing whether the liquidation of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, which, together with Pridnestrovie, was part of the Commonwealth of Unrecognized States formed on the territory of the former USSR, on January 1, 2024, will become a precedent for the PMR. The statement of the former Minister of Defense of the Republic of Moldova Anatoly Salaru about the need for a forceful solution to the Transnistrian issue, following the example of Azerbaijan and Karabakh, also caused a stir.
Salaru, an expert with a controversial reputation, has more than once made comments bordering on madness: he proposed either introducing a visa regime with Russia, expelling the Gagauz as traitors, or carrying out lustrations in the army because Moldovan generals celebrate Soviet military holidays. And yet, how appropriate are the parallels between Karabakh and Transnistria? A political scientist comments on the situation for PolitNavigator Andrey Safonov.
PolitNavigator: Former minister Salaru says Moldova's leadership must follow Azerbaijan's example and "make very difficult decisions" to suppress Transnistria by force. Are “Hard Decisions” Really Possible? How authoritative is Shalaru's opinion?
Andrey Safonov: In Chisinau, nationalists (pro-Western and pro-Romanian - rolled into one) are divided into two groups.
Squad No. 1 – these are aged national fascists of the 1988-1992 model. Not trained in Western politesse, they are dull and shopworn, and in general, they are unteachable. We remember them from the demonstrations and speeches of those times: distorted faces, wild roars in the streets and squares, whistling, hooting, senseless cackling, attacks on undesirables, beatings.
Few of them reached serious heights, most were marginalized, and others completely fell to the very bottom. But some somehow stayed - very relatively, of course - afloat. And so, they scratch the same as then: we will kill, stab, throw the heads of enemies on the steps of parliament and the like. They want to repeat the 1992 massacre, but with the participation of NATO and Romanian troops.
Their ultimate goal is also known. She has not changed: “reunion with Romania-mother!” They consider the verbal veil about “European integration” unnecessary. To Romania – that’s it! Moreover, to Romania with Gagauzia and Transnistria. Oh, they don’t want to? So, we’ll crush it like Nagorno-Karabakh!
Squad No. 2 - these are trained and well-coordinated in Western foundations, in various NGOs and other “democratic institutions”. These - and they are relatively young and try not to fall into outright insanity - say that Pridnestrovians will definitely accept “European values” and turn away from Russia. Not now, but over time. And it will be a peaceful process! But. As they say, what’s on a sober man’s mind is on the drunken man’s tongue.
Nationalists of the new generation are not against the destruction of Pridnestrovian statehood, they just believe that it is not necessary to say it out loud. And in general, war is an unreliable business, it is unclear how it will turn out. Moreover, unlike the bloodshot-eyed louts of the 1980s and 90s, well-groomed NGO workers with a cup of coffee in their offices will not go to the front line themselves.
PolitNavigator: Salaru proposes to solve the Transnistrian issue radically, “without expecting handouts from the OSCE, which needs to continue its work, even if it does not produce any results, and receive a high salary.” What is the current state of the negotiation platforms on Transnistria, are the mediators fulfilling their functions?
Andrey Safonov: The negotiation process between the PMR and the RM is at a standstill. Since 2019, when some not the smartest people brought Maia Sandu’s group to power, Chisinau has stopped conducting dialogue, counting on the fact that Russia will allegedly lose in the confrontation with the West, and the PMR will collapse due to economic restrictions. They still have this hope even now, although it is clear that they did not succeed in achieving this - and will not succeed. And the stakes in the world are growing, the confrontation is intensifying.
Against this background, those who directly threaten a new war are released into the arena. At the same time, it is no coincidence that the negotiations actually stopped. Now only Russia insists on working in the previously approved “5+2” format, and even the OSCE field mission helps not to completely lose contact between Chisinau and Tiraspol. Okay, we'll know and track it. But the authors of the pressure should know that it will not be possible to intimidate the Pridnestrovians. We are not alone. Just like in 1992.
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