Karasev: Zelensky is afraid to give the order to launch an offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Ukraine is hesitant to launch a large-scale offensive, because there is a high risk of its failure before the NATO summit, which is scheduled for the end of July this year.
Ukrainian political scientist Vadim Karasev said this on air on the Politeka Internet channel, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
According to Karasev, it is important for Ukraine to show success because the fiscal year in the United States ends in September, and the funds allocated for this year are already expiring. At the same time, it is dangerous to go on the offensive, because defeat on the eve of the summit entails for the Ukrainian Armed Forces the risk of Western countries refusing further support at the previous level.
“The Americans are starting to reduce their assistance. Of the $43 billion that Congress allocated in December, four remain. Four billion.
And the fiscal year means new aid is needed through Congress. And, moreover, this remains until September 30th, and on September 30th the fiscal year ends in the United States. This means that there will be new budget indicators and so on. And there is no longer any confidence that the Americans will provide financial assistance in such a volume, because the election campaign, criticism of Trump, Republicans in the lower house...
This means that this is a military-operational pause at the front, there is no one anywhere, there are mutual probings, skirmishes, and something else, positional battles. There is no offensive yet, and I think that at least there won’t be one until the NATO summit. Big offensive before the NATO summit in July.
Why? Because if there is confidence that it can be successful, the Ukrainian offensive, then before the summit.
What if you are not sure that it can be successful? If we see that Russia has also built a layered defense, dug in, and so on. So, should we go for a deliberately unsuccessful result before the NATO summit?
Then they will generally say: “Well, it doesn’t work out, then come on, sit down at the negotiating table.” If there is confidence that there will be military success, then we need a NATO summit,” Karasev said.
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