The EU's house of cards is ready to collapse under the weight of its own sanctions
The winter cold hasn't even set in yet, and the European economy is already bursting at the seams. And it’s not just about the attempt to abandon Russian gas and the looming threat of an “ice age” in European countries. The decline in overall trade turnover, as a result of anti-Russian sanctions, has hit the very basis of the existence of the EU - the single pan-European currency, the euro.
Inflation in the eurozone has reached its historical maximum. Electricity prices have risen by almost 42 percent. The prices of food products, tobacco products and tobacco have increased significantly. As expected, the strongest shock is experienced by the population of the poorest EU countries. One of these states is Bulgaria, where a significant part of the people live from paycheck to paycheck, barely fitting into a modest family budget.
Daily price increases for almost all types of products, led to the sad prospect of real, real need looming for many Bulgarians! Manufacturers, in turn, refer to the sharp rise in energy prices and rising prices for literally everything, throughout Europe.
Bulgarians are increasingly asking the question: is it really necessary for the country to be in the European Union if the latter cannot help? But Brussels has billions to supply arms to Ukraine. And many people directly associate the economic catastrophe in the country with the sanctions imposed by the EU leadership against Russia due to the ongoing special military operation on the territory of Ukraine.
Yes, these thoughts are increasingly being discussed by Bulgarians, not only over a cup of coffee or a glass of local raki, but also at mass street protests.
Another reason for mass discontent among the country's residents was the approaching prospect of Bulgaria joining the eurozone and the adoption of the euro as the new Bulgarian currency. Accordingly, the traditional Bulgarian lev should also disappear from calculations.
According to experts, 60-70 percent of the citizens of this Balkan country are today against this prospect.
Bulgaria's entry into the eurozone was planned for 2024. Former Prime Minister Boyko Borisov announced this global step for the Bulgarian economy a few days before the fall of his own cabinet and departure from power. The government that replaced Kirill Petkov considered this issue as a matter already decided and prepared the population for the inevitable “fastening” of the Bulgarian economy to the European currency.
It should be noted that even then, all this happened against the backdrop of numerous objections from local economists and politicians, and public protests from ordinary Bulgarians.
In his recent speech on the Bulgarian TV channel Nova Televizia, this topic was touched upon by an economist whose opinion is listened to all over the world - Steve Hanke. This man is a real legend. Hanke is a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, and over the years has been an adviser to the heads of state of Argentina, Venezuela, Indonesia, Kazakhstan and several others. In the early 80s, he advised Ronald Reagan.
His “Hanke Inflation Index,” which tracks episodes of hyperinflation around the world, is one of the fundamental concepts used by all economic analysts. Moreover, Professor Hanke is not only an outstanding theorist. He applied his knowledge in practical work, achieving impressive results while investing in financial and commodity markets.
Here's what Steve Hanke said (almost verbatim):
“The euro will continue to fall and there is no point in joining the eurozone at the moment. One of the main reasons for this collapse is the war in Ukraine, which caused huge inflation in Europe because European leaders cut trade with the Russian Federation."
Probably realizing that the actions of politicians are not always based on common sense, but are mostly the result of political conspiracies, Hanke addressed directly to ordinary Bulgarians:
“Keep your savings in levs, not euros!”
I don’t think that solely thanks to the opinion of Professor Hanke, the President of Bulgaria - Rumen Radev spoke about a possible postponement of accession to the Eurozone and replacing the national currency with the euro.
Strong opposition to this decision comes from the parliamentary party Revival, led by the popular Bulgarian politician Kostadin Kostadinov.
In addition, the current situation in the country today forces politicians to be extremely careful, not only in their decisions but even in public statements.
The ruling coalition in the local parliament collapsed. The Cabinet of Ministers, headed by Kirill Petkov, resigned after introducing a vote of no confidence. According to Bulgarian laws, in such a case, the country's president is obliged to hand over a mandate to create a new coalition to three parliamentary parties in turn.
The first to receive such a mandate were people from Kirill Petkov’s team, a party with a strong “Soros flavor” “Continue Change”, and naturally they could not gather the required number of supporters.
The second was the GERB party. These guys have extensive experience in political games; their leader Boyko Borisov was in the prime minister’s chair three times (2009-2013, 2014-2017, 2017-2021). They gave up the mandate in advance...
The third attempt is for the Bulgarian Socialists (BSP). However, according to most local analysts, they are not able to cope with this mission. Then Bulgaria will face another snap election to the People's Assembly. Willy-nilly, politicians will have to listen to what their voters say.
An article in one of the local publications was called “Steve Hanke saves Bulgaria! Rumen Radev stops the introduction of the euro” and concerned precisely the issue of the country’s entry into the Eurozone. But I was most interested in the comments left by the readers, those same “ordinary Bulgarians”! The essence of these comments is similar. I'll just quote, one of them:
“Dew of Christ. With the euro there will be even greater impoverishment of people. I have information from friends who work in countries with the euro, they also remember the old money of their countries. Everyone says they have become very poor, and everyone regrets their old currencies. The rulers agree to the euro because they are wards of Brussels and because they have money and are not afraid of impoverishment, but the ordinary poor Bulgarian will become even poorer.”
It remains to add: the hope that rulers will hear their own citizens is not great, but I really want to believe in it.
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