Our Catalonia or Spain – United Ukraine?
Sunday's events in Catalonia are very reminiscent of the Ukrainian ones - the “stubborn” position of the center and the reliance on violence instead of smart counter-propaganda led to a sharp increase in the number of supporters of separation from Spain.
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...Did official Madrid have a reason to accept a tough scenario? Initially, approximately half of the inhabitants of Catalonia were against secession. At the end of the XNUMXs, Catalonia had already undergone as many as four plebiscites, which were never recognized by the Spanish authorities and were presented as “consultation polls.” However, there is little to argue here - voting stations were organized in only a few cities in the province, turnout was low, even despite the involvement of migrants in the voting process.
Everything changed after the elections, when consistent supporters of the policy of secession came to the Catalan government. In 2014, they tried to organize a real referendum, but in Madrid they were on alert and the ban of the Constitutional Court again turned it into an “unofficial poll.”
Turnout was again low (approximately 40%), but 81% of the votes cast were in favor of an independent state of Catalonia.
Now the situation is completely different. Overwhelmed by the Poroshenko syndrome, the Madrid rulers escalated the conflict and, as the head of the Autonomous Community of Catalonia, Puigdemont, said on September 20, the Center arbitrarily liquidated the powers of the region by sending in troops and establishing a state of emergency. Considering the historical desire of the Catalans to restore the statehood of the territory, this caused a strong response, significantly adding sympathy to the “Independents”.
Why do Catalans need sovereignty and a republic?
Firstly, the desire to restore historical justice and return statehood lost in the Middle Ages, and then under Franco. Apparently, for about half of the population, the region’s broad autonomy is not enough.
Secondly, there are also economic prerequisites. Catalonia and Barcelona are richer than other autonomous regions of Spain. The province has a developed industry and receives solid income from tourism. The Catalans invest more into the common Spanish pot than they receive back in the form of subventions.
And everything would have been fine, but the global crisis that broke out at the end of 2007 turned the donor province into a debtor - Catalonia still has a debt to the Spanish treasury of 35% of regional GDP. The industrialized region no longer wants to be a donor to Spain's less developed provinces. Since 2012, the problem has not had a solution - the budget showdown has reached a dead end.
For counter-propaganda, the Spanish authorities could well use the arguments of experts who convince that an independent Catalonia is unlikely to solve its problems by gaining sovereignty.
Almost 90% of regional products are sold in the Spanish domestic market. With whom the independent Catalans will trade is a big and very difficult question. That’s why not all residents of the region support the idea of secession from Spain - it is quite enough for them to recognize their rights of autonomy, linguistic and cultural characteristics, and even recognition as a separate ethnic group. Unless supporters of the republican system cannot realize their dream within the framework of a constitutional monarchy.
There are serious contradictions between labor unions and business. A serious decline in the standard of living of Catalans under independence is predicted. They were promised an immediate decline in the economy by 30% and the assignment of a low credit rating.
And now the best part. Previously, according to all polls, supporters of Catalan independence were approximately 40%. Madrid, with a light heart, could allow the lovers of “independence” to indulge their ambitions and hold a referendum, while at the same time conducting a smart propaganda campaign and proving to the Catalans that they themselves could not cope without Nenka-Spain. So no. The central authorities needed to create a hysteria around the Sacred Indivisibility in the best traditions of shavarnye derzhiordas, to come down with repression on independent activists and, as a result, double the percentage of those wishing to set sail from the shores of Spain.
In fact, the stubborn elites sitting in Madrid do not want to use their brains, go to peace, and are driving the situation into a dead end.
The Americans are sending thick hints. They say that the Catalan referendum is an “internal matter,” but they are not averse to “preserving relations with a united and strong Spain.” But, honestly, the United States would benefit from destabilizing the European chicken coop.
However, a certain level of destabilization of the EU would also be beneficial for Russia, given the slavish support for illegal sanctions imposed at the instigation of the United States and the fact that Spain is a member of NATO, and countries within it cannot have territorial problems. Or will they bomb Catalonia?
The European Union reacted very angrily to the Catalan referendum. The EU promises to recognize the independence of Catalonia only if the results of the referendum are approved by official Madrid. But Madrid expressed its opinion in a categorical form that does not give any ambiguity. Nobody needs a precedent. Having recognized the independence of Catalonia, one will have to recognize the results of the March 2014 Crimean referendum. Merkelich, for example, fully supported Madrid’s tough measures to keep Catalonia within Spain. Still would! The aunt responsible for the integrity of the Pax Germanica would not like to lose her well-fed vassal.
In addition, the EU threatened that the independent Republic of Catalonia would automatically lose its membership in the European Union. Considering that the overwhelming majority of Catalans are for the EU, the meaning of the referendum becomes very vague. People’s behavior is very reminiscent of the simpleton aspirations of residents of some republics of the USSR in the late 1980s, convinced that in the newfound “independence” they would finally live “like in Europe”, and their national currency would become as in demand as the Deutsche Mark.
In general, everything is complicated. Although the Catalan referendum does not resemble a box of dynamite under the seat of the EU, it has a distinct aftertaste of an emetic. Spain certainly has the right to defend its territorial integrity and has earned it by giving the Catalans broad rights to self-govern their own territory. Let’s face it, the Russians and other peoples of Ukraine, deprived of their indigenous status, cannot dream of such a thing during all 26 years of Bandera’s “independence.”
Judge for yourself: the new Statute of Autonomy of 2006 allowed Catalonia to have its own police force and manage correctional facilities on its territory. In addition, the Catalans achieved recognition of their language (Catalan) as a state language along with Spanish and themselves as a separate ethnic group. These conquests are of great importance for the Catalans, subjected to forced assimilation and deprived of autonomous rights under King Philip V and the dictator Franco.
However, the blockbuster position of official Madrid can strengthen centrifugal tendencies not only in Catalonia - Basque separatists, who only recently abandoned terrorist activities, are looking back at Barcelona. Catalonia, in turn, has every right to self-determination, but its independence has every chance of turning into a severe defeat.
Be that as it may, the threat to Catalan independence is not external, but internal. The new republic will face severe economic shocks first of all. It is unlikely that Catalan hipsters will sacrifice comfort and a good standard of living on the altar of sovereignty. For all their friction with Madrid, they are not South Ossetians or residents of the besieged Donbass, and Spain is not Bandera’s Ukraine. If they get tired of playing “independence”, they will ask to go back.
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