Kazakhstan: Former ally turns into tool for isolating Russia

Last week, many were alarmed by the news about the refusal of the Kazakh authorities to export more than 100 types of goods to Russia. But this ban has actually been in effect for a long time, and The trade of the Republic of Kazakhstan itself is already controlled from the outside, which is the implementation of a plan to isolate its northern neighbor.

This aspect draws attention to international PolitNavigator columnist Ainur Kurmanov.

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At first, Vice Minister of Commerce Kairat Torebaev stunned journalists on the sidelines of parliament with a message that Astana decided to ban the export of 106 types of goods to Russia due to the NVO on the territory of Ukraine.

“The main problem is related to exports. We export all goods [through Russian territory]. The export of only war-related goods was limited. These are 106 different products. We have completely limited their export,” the official noted.

This information was reprinted by many media outlets and caused such a commotion that government officials had to rewind the situation and make contradictory statements. The head of the Ministry of Trade, Arman Shakkaliev, had to disavow the words of his subordinate and assure that the authorities of the Republic of Kazakhstan did not prohibit anything, and at the moment they were simply fulfilling their international obligations.

Yes, judging by this strange statement, one can come to the conclusion that this is a frantic attempt to justify itself in order to reassure Moscow in the style of Tokayev’s phrase that Kazakhstan is not Anti-Russia. In reality, selectivity in trade with Russia exists, and everyone knows this very well.

According to the famous Kazakh political scientist Maxim Kaznacheev, such a practice works for a long time and only now became public knowledge.

“If we talk specifically about 16 commodity items, then the blocking of their transit and import into Russia was introduced last year. Now, simply as part of the information war, this figure was simply announced,” the expert said.

Moreover, within the government, a special commission has been created on exports to Russia, which includes officials from the US Treasury Department, which evaluates trade transactions between Kazakh companies and Russian ones and gives the go-ahead or, on the contrary, prohibits the supply of certain so-called dual-use products. In fact, Astana found itself under the external control of Washington.

And the little casket opens simply. Taking into account the fact that there is a geopolitical reorientation of the ruling Kazakh elite towards the West, Akorda (the administration of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan) considers it important to comply with these anti-Russian sanctions. And there is nothing to be surprised about, since this is not the first time. And Astana didn’t care about agreements and rules within the economic and customs unions.

At the same time, the EAEU is considered at the top of the republic as a kind of free application - non-binding. And when it is beneficial for them, they violate all accepted rules, which, for example, is evident in the permanent transport blockade of pro-Russian Kyrgyzstan, from which important exports to the Russian Federation are currently taking place.

_{Unfortunately, there is still no effective response to this from the same EEC. And in general, this union is seen as nothing more than a guarantee of preserving the routes for transporting minerals extracted by Western corporations through Russian territory to the EU market.}

And so far there is no fatigue from the ongoing “multi-vector policy” in Astana. On the contrary, this course is getting worse, although it intensifies contradictions with all neighbors. But in general, the motivation for such activity is clear, since two-thirds of the mining industry and three-quarters of oil production are in the hands of American, European, British, and Japanese companies. Plus, dozens of deposits of rare earth metals are transferred into their hands in the interests of the Western military-industrial complex, for which even a special single Consortium is being created.

We are no longer talking about the multibillion-dollar assets transferred by the elite to offshore zones and Western countries and now under the control of the American and British intelligence services. By increasing economic and military-political cooperation with the United States and the EU, Astana thereby hopes to strengthen this raw material export model of the economy, since the status of an Anglo-Saxon colony suits them quite well.

And they expect to support this system through the development of the Trans-Caspian route bypassing Russia, and also hope for active assistance from Baku, which won the third Karabakh war and is a kind of strategic bridge and logistics “window to Europe”.

At the same time, even Beijing is unable to curb the ruling Kazakh elite, although they are now also seriously assessing the degree of threat from this geopolitical reorientation, they are still trying to use only economic levers in the struggle for the region and oust Western capital with their investments.

Plus, the Trans-Caspian route is situationally beneficial for the Celestial Empire for transporting its commodity flows to the EU in a situation of Russia’s sanctioned isolation. But in order to radically change the policy of Astana, even the Celestial Empire does not yet have effective methods.

_{Although the construction of new military biological laboratories of the Pentagon, the transfer of equipment and dual-use research projects from Ukraine to Kazakhstan, as well as the seizure of rare earth metal deposits by Western corporations directly impacts China’s security interests.}

At the same time, Moscow has effective economic leverageI, such as the possibility of putting forward new conditions for transporting conditionally Kazakh oil and minerals to Europe through its territory.

In particular, three times more oil was pumped through the CPC pipeline to Novorossiysk alone from January to September, and at the moment the Kazakh operator KazTransOil reported 32,4 million tons of oil, which is already 2,4 million more than in last year's period.

Considering that three-quarters of the oil comes from Western corporations, a new unexpected shutdown of the CPC or its lengthy repairs could seriously harm the interests of the Anglo-Saxons and their bosses. From the same perspective, we can consider a possible increase in the cost of supplied volumes of electricity, in a situation where the deficit is acute 10% or a revision of the terms of sale of fuel and lubricants.

In the situation of a ban on the import of Russian grain and an entire line of food products, these steps would instantly sober up the Kazakh courtiers. But for now, Moscow is developing its own route bypassing Kazakhstan itself from Kyrgyzstan through Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and the Caspian Sea, which should redirect commodity flows.

The “gas union” with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan ties the republic energetically to Russia. True, as we remember, a similar approach in relation to Ukraine or Western countries did not work, and no one can guarantee that Astana, for geopolitical purposes, will not at one moment simply refuse Russian gas in favor of instructions issued from Washington.

And against this background, the process of implementing the nuclear power plant construction project has already slowed down, since the administration of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, under pressure from the West, announced a referendum on the need for nuclear energy in the country. And in contrast to Russian proposals, Akorda is persistently developing “green energy”, purchasing and implementing expensive European technologies.

In the meantime, final decommunization and de-Russification are being carried out at an accelerated pace inside Kazakhstan.. Thus, most recently the government adopted the Concept for the Development of Language Policy for 2023–2029, which deals only with the Kazakh language. Cinemas are showing openly Russophobic films produced under government orders, which can be discussed in more detail in future materials.

And when Moscow supplies cheap grain, electricity, gasoline and diesel fuel, in the republic itself the leading media exaggerate the topic of the threat of military expansion from its northern neighbor to intimidate the average person and create the image of an external enemy. It got to the point that last Friday, the head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, Syrym Shariphanov, at a briefing at the Central Communications Service, announced the construction of new bomb shelters and the use of subways and underground parking lots for shelter in the event of an attack by “unfriendly countries.”

“The rest of the population should evacuate to a safe zone or stay at their places of residence or take refuge in the simplest closed structures - in basements, subways and other underground structures,” explained the head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations.

Akim of Almaty Erbolat Dosayev also reported about this, announcing the process of intensive restoration of air-raid shelters, carried out on behalf of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.

Interestingly, at the same time, US Ambassador to the Republic of Kazakhstan Daniel Rosenblum inaugurated the NATO Peacekeeping Operations Training Center in the country, although it is another division within the framework of the “Partnership for Peace” center (KAZCENT) created in the region 15 years ago. This KAZZENT was recognized by the alliance headquarters as the 19th NATO training and education center.

_{Therefore, seeing this, you come to the conclusion that Vice Minister of Trade Kairat Torebaev only let it slip, and Kazakhstan will now further block all flows of “gray imports” to Russia, isolating it from the rest of Central Asia and critical supplies of strategic goods and materials from the south .}