Kazakhstan: Tokayev is in a hurry to strengthen power, but is in no hurry to denazify

On the first day of spring, the XXII extraordinary congress of the ruling Nur Otan party took place in Nur-Sultan (Tselinograd). The result was a name change and deep rebranding. Preparations for early parliamentary elections in the fall of this year have actually been launched. The party got rid of the influence of Nursultan Nazarbayev and is now completely Tokayev.

First, at the congress they began to change the name of the organization, thus deciding to abandon the trail associated with the previous ruler. As a result, Nur Otan began to be called Amanat. At first, many thought that they would only give up the “Nur” prefix, but then they came to the conclusion that it was necessary to completely change the sign.

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At the same time, the new name itself is ambiguous, since the dictionary gives the following meanings of this word “amanate” - “entrusted for storage”, “reliability”. And there is another meaning - “hostage”. At the same time, the president himself puts his own symbols into the name:

“Translated, the word “Amanat” means a covenant of the ancestors, a commandment to future generations. Amanat is a deep concept that has special symbolism in the history and culture of our people. It personifies the unfading ideals of independence, the values ​​of strong statehood, and overall national unity. The endless expanses of our Motherland, which our ancestors bequeathed to us.”

In essence, this means that the party is now completely becoming the personal instrument of Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, since the previous congress, held on January 28, only led to the transfer of Nur Otan into the hands of the president, becoming a factor in the final consolidation of all power in his hands. Now this power is being strengthened by building its own vertical, where the core is the party of its own supporters.

This is also confirmed by the reshuffle in the Political Council, since ex-speaker of the lower house of parliament Nurlan Nigmatulin and general director of the Pavlodar petrochemical plant Ospanbek Alseitov were removed from its composition. The first is an oligarch close to Elbasy, who faithfully followed all his instructions. It is no coincidence that it was in the publication Vlast.kz, owned by Nigmatulin, that a couple of weeks ago an investigation conducted by the Organized Crime and Corruption Research Center (OCCRP) was published. associated with the Soros Foundation, with compromising evidence on Tokayev.

In place of those purged, Prime Minister Alikhan Smailov, head of the presidential administration Murat Nurtleu, rector of the Astana Medical University Kamalzhan Nadyrov and other public figures loyal to the president came to replace them. And if at the previous congress all key officials and ministers were removed from the Political Council, essentially depriving them of their former influence, then now, on the contrary, they have strengthened the leadership by adding the head of government and the head of the presidential administration.

This indicates a change in the attitude of Tokayev and his advisers towards the party, which will now be a support for electoral campaigns, both early parliamentary and presidential in 2024. That is, it was decided not to dismantle this monopoly political entity, but to integrate it into a new presidential-parliamentary structure and consolidate all those who are ready to support the political and socio-economic course.

On the agenda is the return of broad layers of trust to the ruling party, as well as the desire to extinguish the protest wave through involvement in the activities of representative bodies.

“First of all, this is de-bureaucratization, decentralization and increasing the efficiency of the party apparatus, expanding the autonomy of branches and primary party organizations. The second is the intensification of the activities of factions in the Mazhilis and maslikhats, where dialogue and expert platforms from the apparatus and branches should move (“It is advisable to shift the focus of public discussions from social networks and city squares to the walls of parliament and maslikhats”),” noted Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in time of his speech.

It is clear that with the current composition of the parliament, where it is still not Tokayev’s but Nazarbayev’s nominees and supporters, it is simply impossible to do this. Therefore, the president will sculpt his own Mazhilis and Senate, as well as local maslikhats from among members of Amanat and other satellite parties. At the same time, the upcoming liberalization of party legislation is essentially announced, which will allow other players to take part in the upcoming elections.

_{It is noteworthy that the party congress also became a platform for expressing the state position on the situation in Ukraine. Let us recall that Nur-Sultan refused to recognize the sovereignty and independence of the LDPR, but On current events related to the special operation in Nezalezhnaya, the president took a neutral position, offering mediation services.}

«The Minsk agreements remained on paper, which led to military action on the territory of Ukraine. The geopolitical situation has deteriorated in an unprecedented way. And now it’s time to talk about the irreversibility of this trend. Unfortunately. Therefore, we call on both states to find a common language at the negotiating table, to reach agreements and agreement. There is no other way. A bad peace is better than a good quarrel. Without peace there will be no development. Kazakhstan, for its part, is ready to provide all possible assistance, including mediation services. If they are needed, of course,” said Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.

We can call this neutrality friendly rather than hostile, thereby suggesting that the Russian leadership itself may be interested in some kind of “window” in a situation of possible political isolation. This is confirmed by diplomatic activity between the EU countries and Kazakhstan and, in particular, Macron’s calls to Tokayev. In addition, Nur-Sultan itself is under pressure from the West and is afraid of finding itself under sanctions. But such a role as a mediator is even beneficial to the presidential administration, as it opens up new economic, trade and diplomatic opportunities for the Republic of Kazakhstan due to the current sanctions against Russia.

The famous Kazakh political scientist Daniyar Ashimbaev commented in his own way on this speech of the head of the republic, considering it complementary to Moscow.

“President Tokayev diplomatically formulated Kazakhstan’s position in relation to the Ukrainian issue. It can be understood as an understanding of the actions of Russia, which began hostilities as a result of continued bloodshed in the Donbass due to Kiev’s failure to comply with the Minsk agreements and the threat to Russian security due to NATO’s expansion to the East. At the same time, Tokayev called for a ceasefire and a solution to the issue based on the mutual security and territorial integrity of the country. This can be understood as a call for the neutral status of Ukraine and its possible federalization for the reverse integration of Donbass"- noted Ashimbaev.

At the same time, despite the peacekeeping rhetoric, on the same day the Prime Minister signed a decree on the conscription of officers under 29 years of age who graduated from universities with a military department, and those who completed military service. Such partial mobilization is intended to staff parts of the army, including due to threats of internal destabilization, since oligarchic groups may try to take revenge for the defeat in the January conspiracy.

Such an ambivalent “neutral” position leads to other consequences, namely the growth of nationalist, anti-Russian and Russophobic sentiments, especially on social networks. At the same time, the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan sometimes follows such sentiments. So, photos are being distributed like Traffic police officers stopped a motorist in Almaty with a demand to remove the Z sign on the rear window, which received the support of Kazakh nationalists.

Moreover, the police of the southern capital even reported that they had begun a special check on this fact.

“We have begun an investigation into this fact and will find out whether the actions of the owner of the car comply with the legislation of the Republic of Kazakhstan, as well as the origin of the image and the purpose for which it appeared on the car window,” commented Deputy Police Department Rustam Abdrakhmanov.

_{This gave even more strength to local nationalists, Nazis and liberals of all stripes, especially since the activities of “language patrols” were resumed in the country, and the work of the state commission for the final rehabilitation of the Basmachi, members of the Turkestan Legion of the Wehrmacht and Muslim SS units did not stop. These relapses also raise the question of the need to carry out our own domestic denazification.}