Kazakhstan is expecting a rapid tilt towards the West immediately after the presidential elections

On Sunday, November 20, early presidential elections will be held in Kazakhstan, which will certainly lead to the fact that the current head of state, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, will again sit in the presidential chair for the next seven years. At the same time, the general internal course and the external multi-vector course will not change at all, which will mean further distancing of the republic from Russia.

In general, this election process can with all responsibility be called a plebiscite, since all the other five candidates are not real opponents, because they are absolutely unknown to anyone, were previously lower-level officials, and were nominated with the participation of the authorities themselves.

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According to the amendments adopted to the Constitution in 2017 by Nazarbayev, a person who has at least five years of experience in the public service and nominated by a party or the Republican Public Association (RPO) can become a candidate.

And since there are only six such registered parties in Kazakhstan, and all of them are pro-government, and all ROOs are controlled by them, there were no surprises to be expected. Therefore, it is clear that Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will receive the support of at least 70 percent of the votes, and most likely about 80 percent, which will show the population’s absolute trust in him personally and his policies.

This is also evidenced by the data of official surveys; unofficial ones were prohibited by law several years ago. Thus, according to the information of the Institute “Public Opinion”, which, with the permission of the Central Election Commission, compiled ratings of candidates based on the results of opinion polls of citizens by telephone, the favorite of the race in the person of the current president gains 78,8%, and the second is a candidate with the interesting name Zhiguli Dayrabaev from the court party “Auyl” ” with 2,8%, and others – already less than 2%. 3,2% were against everyone, and only 9,4% abstained.

_{That is, public opinion is being prepared in advance for such a result, and now nothing will change the situation. The scattered liberal opposition, which, in fact, does not have its own party, is incapable of anything and has not been able to nominate its own candidate, and protests are unlikely due to preventive arrests and detentions of radical activists.}

There were several reasons for initiating early presidential elections in November and early parliamentary elections next spring. Firstly, holding elections in 2024 at a time of intensifying socio-economic crisis and protest sentiments was out of the question. In this regard, the deadlines were shifted, which did not allow opponents to organize and prepare.

Secondly, after a failed attempt by part of the ruling family and senior officials of the National Security Committee (NSC), with the support of British intelligence services, to carry out a coup in January, Tokayev’s team decided to replace the composition of the parliament and local maslikhats, previously selected by Nazarbayev. Plus, once again legitimize presidential power through a plebiscite while there are still high support ratings.

Therefore, the next step after the presidential elections will be the same controlled elections to the lower house of parliament, the Mazhilis, and local representative bodies of government, with the admission of perhaps two or three more new parties, also loyal to the current presidential team.

_{In this, Tokayev completely copies the technology and evolution of Elbasy, acting along the path of gradual usurpation of power. At the same time, a certain status quo remains in the ruling elite within the framework of an internal agreement, according to which Nazarbayev and his immediate relatives, as well as their assets, will not be touched. Only the former head of the National Security Committee and not a member of the family, Karim Masimov, as well as Elbasy’s nephews and part-time ex-special service generals, as well as some other relatives and middle-ranking officials, were sent to be slaughtered.}

As a result, nothing changes at all, and the old Russophobic and anti-Russian rhetoric is only intensifying.

It should be recalled that immediately after the January events, when the CSTO forces with the participation of Russia rescued Tokayev, the Mazhilis adopted the so-called law “On Signs”, which leads not only to changing the names of restaurants, pharmacies and shops, but creates the basis for the liquidation of the entire Russian toponymy. This is already reflected in the renaming of settlements in various regions, and then we should expect the renaming of regional centers.

It is no coincidence that, to please the nationalist electorate, on which Tokayev now relies, populist amendments were introduced the day before to the Law “On Citizenship of the Republic of Kazakhstan”, providing for “ignorance of the state language, the basics of history and national legislation as an additional basis for refusal of admission and reinstatement in citizenship."

And after the start of the special operation, that is, already at the end of February, subsidiaries of the state company KazMunayGas in Romania, which own refineries and process Kazakh oil, immediately began supplying fuel and lubricants to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Then there were scandals related to the supply of ammunition, weapons and components to the Kyiv regime from Kazakhstan through front Jordanian, Bulgarian and Czech companies.

_{At the same time, the British side appeared in the transactions as curators and controllers, which interacted with the Kazakh Foreign Ministry on this matter, which even allocated a special representative for this. London’s participation here is no coincidence, since even after January it continues to exert a serious influence on the Kazakh leadership’s adoption of strategic decisions in the field of economics and politics.}

Thus, former English financier and ex-chairman of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Suma Chakraborty, who is now the de facto head of the Reform Council under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, prepared for Tokayev a plan for the total privatization of the remaining assets of strategic production in the interests of American, British and European companies.

With Chakraborty

Against this background, in order to avoid “secondary sanctions,” Astana also joined the blockade of Russia, refusing trade and investment in rubles, not wanting to supply strategic raw materials and metals, introducing inflated tariffs for the same grain deliveries by rail to China. There is no need to talk about refusing to service Russian payment systems.

At the same time, orientation towards the West, both directly through increased cooperation with the EU and the USA, and indirectly through the development of the Organization of Turkic States under the auspices of Ankara, has only become even stronger. In fact, the current process can even be called the Kazakh edition of “European integration”.

Thus, shortly before the elections, the diplomatic activity of the European Union and Kazakhstan increased enormously. On October 26, the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, arrives in Astana on an official visit, and on November 8, Kazakhstan and the European Union signed a memorandum of strategic partnership, which concerns the development of cooperation in the energy sector, but implies strengthening the position of Western capital and increasing the influence of Brussels on the republic and the region in in general.

On November 16 and 17, the country is visited by the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Vice-President of the European Commission Josep Borrell, who also consolidates all agreements reached in the energy sector and in ensuring the penetration of European capital into the Republic of Kazakhstan.

With Borrell

Kassym-Jomart Tokayev does not forget Washington, which, in turn, considers Kazakhstan its main strategic partner in Central Asia. So, on November 14, the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan unexpectedly meets with US Ambassador Daniel Rosenblum. And as the press service of the head of state points out: “During the meeting, the president expressed Kazakhstan’s interest in further strengthening and expanding the strategic partnership with the United States in all areas.”

In turn, the State Department, through its envoy, stated that “Astana is a reliable partner in the region, and Washington fully supports the reforms carried out by the president.” Obviously, the visit with a bow was aimed at obtaining a label for reigning in his fiefdom and the desire to demonstrate loyalty to the White House.

_{Therefore, following the election results, we can only expect further distancing of Astana from Moscow, which will only accelerate. It seems that Akorda (the presidential administration) is even in a hurry to succeed in this, taking advantage of the fact that Russia is now busy with a special operation in Ukraine and cannot fully respond to openly unfriendly acts.}

Based on this bleak prospect, it is necessary now to seriously think about ways to reformat the previous policy towards the ruling elites of Kazakhstan and the republics of the region, who are seeking not only to sabotage the integration process, but are already playing by the rules of London and Washington.