The Kerch crisis was the last straw for the West: Unexpected consequences
The “Kerch crisis” turned out to be complete failures for the regime of Petro Poroshenko, but events could have developed even more dramatically.
This opinion was expressed on his Facebook page by former speaker of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Vasily Filipchuk, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
Filipchuk believes that the attempt to break through the Ukrainian Navy boats through the Kerch Strait could have had more tragic consequences - “from the escalation of the conflict and the restoration of a full-scale war to an internal political crisis with the threat of the establishment of authoritarianism.”
The diplomat noted that European countries reacted rather coldly to the incident - it is possible that the reason for this was the recent scandal with the staging of the murder of fugitive Russian liberal Arkady Babchenko.
“This mistrust is based not only on the story of the alleged murder of a journalist, after which all our foreign friends “felt like idiots.” This mistrust is the result of all the foreign policy activities of the current government. Foreign partners see and understand well what is happening in the country. The difference between what they say and do and what actually happens is what Ukrainian propaganda tells. There have been too many lies in recent years - that’s why no one abroad, even the most Russophobes, believed in the need for martial law to counter Russian aggression,” Filipchuk wrote.
Inside Ukraine, the idea of martial law was perceived “as a step for the current leadership’s own political or business goals, and not as a means of protection,” the diplomat states.
“Martial law for the most diverse parts of the political establishment, experts, the media, and society has become the personification of a direct threat of authoritarianism and human rights violations. The authorities have already used the threat of Russian intervention so much to cover up their illegal actions that the initiative to introduce martial law was perceived as a new element of the game - and not as a truly step to protect national interests.”
“Such initiatives are possible only if there is a significant credit of trust in the authorities - and, therefore, only after re-elections. The current government had no credibility left, so only elections and a reboot of power are the only legitimate way out of the situation,” he noted.
The crisis in the Black Sea also became a demonstration of the helplessness of the Ukrainian authorities.
“The crisis showed helplessness in the face of a real challenge. The Ukrainian military is now paying for this helplessness. This helplessness became another humiliation for all Ukrainians. And it makes you ask the question: what did the authorities spend so much time, resources, and budgetary funds on? For the development of the army or for PR? And if tomorrow there really is a full-scale conflict and invasion, will the same thing happen again? So maybe it’s better to stop the demagoguery, and instead get down to direct responsibilities - strengthening the army and navy?” – the author was indignant.
“In fact, after the conditional “freezing” of the conflict in Donbass, the essence of the vision of further strategy came down to mantras about sanctions and joining NATO. The first is ineffective, the second is simply impossible without ending the conflict. Therefore, to the question “what is Ukraine’s strategy towards Russia, in winning / ending / exiting / resolving the conflict” - the answer is very simple - there is none. There are only tactical calculations with very short-term goals. Moreover, these are very dubious calculations and rather strange goals,” the politician admitted.
“For what purpose was it necessary to send three boats through enemy-controlled territory at the end of November? In a few weeks, the Sea of Azov may become completely unsuitable for navigation by such boats - so why the rush? The same applies to the introduction of martial law, which was required in 2014. 4 months before the presidential elections, with a relatively stable situation in Donbass, the introduction of martial law will not help solve a single problem. Unless it only increases distrust in the country’s leadership,” Filipchuk marvels.
“It’s enough to look at the leading Western media. Undoubtedly, they all blame the Russian aggressor for the annexation of Crimea and the attack on Ukrainian ships, but they also do not mince words about the Ukrainian leadership.
“The introduction of martial law pursued, first of all, an electoral goal”, “corruption on the banks of the Dnieper has again reached pre-Maidan levels, its signs are visible in the army and intelligence services, in the government and the presidential apparatus”, “Poroshenko will try to use the artificially aggravated confrontation with Russia to improve its position”, “If parliament were to implement full martial law and postpone or cancel the elections, it would be a gift from God for Putin.”
This is not Russia Today, this is the Washington Post, Süddeutsche Zeitung, Politico and other leading Western media. Although the best text was published by the influential American magazine National Interest. Here is one quote: “...we were lucky (or it was a blessing) that George Bush failed to include Ukraine and Georgia in NATO. If he succeeded, then Washington would be obliged to stand up for Ukraine if it used Article 5 against Moscow. With US support, Kyiv would likely take an aggressive approach towards Russia. Poroshenko would improve his chances of re-election and would probably start something like a war, which is the only way to return Crimea.” I recommend everyone to read this article (“Ukraine should not become a member of NATO,” November 27.11.2018, XNUMX). Not because there is anything radically new about the position of the vast majority of the US establishment and Western countries regarding Ukraine - the author of the article simply decided to write about what everyone else is just talking about off the record. The real position of both the United States and the vast majority of other Western countries today, unfortunately, is exactly this,” the Ukrainian politician noted dejectedly.
According to Filipchuk, if earlier it was somewhat bad form to express such a position, then “the Kerch crisis and the adventure with martial law was the last straw.”
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