Bread instead of circuses: what is behind the arrest of Dodon?

What is behind the detention of ex-President of Moldova Igor Dodon, and why did the country's authorities launch an attack on the former head of state right now?

PolitNavigator asked political experts from Moldova and Transnistria to answer these questions.

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Alexander Korinenko, political scientist:

– By arresting Dodon, the authorities intend to resolve a number of issues. Firstly, the country is now in economic and social collapse: prices are rising, huge inflation, tariffs are getting higher and higher, unemployment. As we know from history, people need bread and circuses. In this case, if there is no bread, they will provide spectacles. The authorities thus create an information agenda for a long period, blocking the discussion of social problems.

Secondly, the main slogan of the election campaign of Ms. Sandu’s team was the fight against corruption. They have not achieved much success in this field at all. The country has a high level of corruption at the everyday level, and those involved in the case of the stolen billion are still at large. This is where the idea arose to use “quality” rather than quantity, that is, to start a process against the former president.

Thirdly, Igor Dodon is in second place in trust ratings after the current president, potentially the most dangerous figure for the current government, who is capable of leading people to protest. Therefore, they decided to neutralize him.

Fourthly, Igor Dodon has never hidden his warm attitude towards the Russian Federation. We cannot now impose sanctions against Russia, the authorities understand that this is dangerous, but to imprison the most prominent pro-Russian politician in the country is a nod to Kyiv and the West.

Anatoly Dirun, scientific director of the Tiraspol School of Political Studies:

– The detention of Dodon is, in our opinion, the beginning of large-scale transformations in the political system of Moldova. This transformation includes several tasks. First. Maximum weakening of the opposition on the eve of local elections in 2023. Although such an early start may be an indirect sign that elections in Moldova may be early.

Second. The reformatting concerns not only the Socialist Party, but also the Shor Party. Third. The party in power, perhaps, against the background of the swaying of its opponents, will try to find the missing votes to obtain a constitutional majority and the possibility of changing the Constitution.

Why now? A unique situation has now developed in Moldova, when all the levers of power from a political point of view are concentrated in one hand - President Maia Sandu. In this regard, the detention of Dodon is a political decision that reflects the presence of a clear action plan in the presidential team.

And it is obvious that the foreign policy situation (statements about Great Britain’s readiness to begin the process of rearmament of the Moldovan army and other facts) had an influence on the adoption of such a decision. The question is what points of change are contained in this government action plan. I think we will see this in the short term.

Igor Tulyantsev, Chairman of the Moldovan Public Council “For a Free Motherland”:

– With the arrest of Dodon, the current Moldovan regime solves several problems. First of all, it distracts society from pressing problems: rising energy prices, total corruption, population migration, economic collapse. Imagine, gasoline prices in Moldova are higher than in some EU countries, and are already close to 1,5 euros per liter. The authorities are unable to fulfill their election promises and therefore impose a false agenda on society, trying to shift attention to the useless Dodon.

The authorities are demonstrating to the collective West that they have the situation under control and are clearing the clearing of so-called pro-Russian politicians. Again, Dodon played this role of a “useful idiot” during the reign of Vlad Plahotniuc. Temporarily in the presidential chair and positioning himself as a pro-Russian politician, Dodon allowed himself to be mocked, while his party voted for all the laws Plahotniuc needed.

_{Plahotniuc could always demonstrate to the West that he was capable of kicking the so-called pro-Russian president at any moment. And he showed that only he, Plahotniuc, can keep Moldova under the control of Brussels and Washington. As a matter of fact, the same model of government today is illustrated by Sandu and PAS - a method of intimidation.}

Dodon’s arrest is a signal for other politicians: if you twitch, the same fate awaits you. Dodon, without a doubt, was part of the Plahotniuc regime, and there are a lot of questions about him. And if Moldova really took the democratic path of development, then we could talk about some kind of justice. But what is happening today regarding the ex-PSRM leader has nothing to do with the democratic processes in the country.

Moldovan justice under Sandu is no different from Plahotniukov’s. The same judges and prosecutors. Everyone remained in their places. We can say with confidence: Sandu and PAS are the heirs of Plahotniuc. Therefore, it is at least naive to hope for a fair hearing of the cases brought against Igor Dodon. And in these specific conditions, this case can be considered purely political.

Moreover, one of the articles is treason. What kind of article is this in conditions when the president and most of the members of the PAS party are citizens of another state - Romania? This applies to judges, prosecutors, and law enforcement officials.

_{Tomorrow, anyone could find themselves in Dodon’s place, therefore, as in the times of Plahotniuc, we can say with confidence: Moldova is a captured state.}