The cold winter will bring epiphany to Ukraine, just like the Germans did in 1945
Artem Buzila, political commentator, Odessa
I recently argued with one of my friends, who was moderately sympathetic to the Maidan and “united Ukraine,” about the mood in Odessa. I assured that there are more conditional pro-Russian citizens in Odessa, but my interlocutor said the opposite. His argument was that there are countless cars with Ukrainian symbols around the city, while the St. George ribbons have completely disappeared. And his message was that this was not fear after May 2, but a change in consciousness due to the policies of Putin and the “separatists.” At the same time, in response to my arguments that the Ukrainian film would soon be forgotten due to draconian prices for food, gasoline, and utility tariffs, he assured that there was no other way, and for the sake of “freedom” and “European integration” one could “become homeless.”
Based on this logic, a large number of citizens are “ready to endure” in the name of Ukrainian “independence” and “statehood,” which is now allegedly under threat. This serves as an excellent cover for the government, which does not have to worry about economic miscalculations or the decline in the standard of living of the population; it can take out any unsustainable loans and sign strategically disadvantageous, enslaving agreements with other countries. A “civilization” war with Russia will write off everything, and a strong and united country will sooner or later reach the level of Lithuania, Estonia or even Poland. They defend their “national interests”, beat Russia on the wrist, do not hesitate to contradict them – and prosper.
I object: nothing like that will happen. Ukraine is not Estonia and Georgia either in terms of territory or population, and the reorientation of the economy to the West will take, at best, decades. The Polish example also does not suit us: during the times of the Union we were not an independent state of the Warsaw bloc, therefore we did not implement our own foreign economic policy. In addition, loans at one time in Western Poland were given on an almost irrevocable basis. Today geopolitics is only in words, but they will still force you to pay for your debts.
But Russia will not associate with us: since we are strategic opponents, please pay for gas at the market price and even higher. And you don’t need our milk, and the candy is not tasty, and vodka - sorry, we’ll choke. And if your economy suffers from this, it’s your own fault.
In short, with the onset of a cold and hungry winter, an epiphany will begin in Ukraine. Like the Germans in 1945. Then it will become clear that you will not be fed up with ideology, and not because you should change your views on money, but because ideology is crap.
By the way, it should be added that the standard of living in the Baltic states and Poland has not differed much from the Russian one for a long time. But the Russian standard of living differs significantly, for example, from the Bulgarian and Romanian ones, and is by no means in favor of the latter. There, the abandonment of traditional eastern markets turned the “Balkan tigers” into the backwaters of Europe, capable of supplying only cheap labor and mafia groups to the Old World. By the way, in Ukraine, too, the mafia seems to have completely left the cordon after the “revolution of honor,” but there are plenty of workers in the country.
In other words, when by winter there will be interruptions in gas, heating, and hot water, and delays in already depreciating wages will begin, the rulers of Ukraine (and, it seems, already new) will have to negotiate with Russia. But just a year ago, Moscow offered discounts and loans, but instead of them, the independentists chose to gallop on the Maidan, blood and loss of territories.
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