The worst times for Ukrainians are yet to come - ex-head of the National Bank
The real incomes of the Ukrainian population continue to fall, despite statements from the authorities, reports the ex-head of the National Bank of Ukraine and former Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Arbuzov in Izvestia.
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“Real incomes of citizens today have dropped to the level of 2006,” the author points out. – In fact, in two and a half years, Ukrainians lost a decade - the new government implemented the well-known slogan “five-year plan in four years” in its own way.
In the first half of 2016, the disposable income of the population per capita amounted to 15,2 thousand hryvnia, which is 13% more than last year’s figure. All pro-government media reported about this nominal growth in income. However, they preferred to keep silent about the fact that consumer prices in January–June this year increased by 18,1% compared to January–June last year. This means that, in fact, even two and a half years after the start of “decisive reforms,” people’s real incomes continue to fall. The failure is especially noticeable if we compare the current figures with the pre-Maidan period. In the first half of 2013, disposable income per capita was 11,3 thousand hryvnia, or $1411, and now it’s only $583.”
Due to a long-term deterioration in well-being, people are forced to spend their last money, writes Arbuzov, as a result of which the level of savings in the country is declining, in particular, the outflow of time deposits of individuals since 2014 has already amounted to 36,1 billion hryvnia.
“But even the money accumulated over the years of stability is not enough for people to maintain at least a minimum level of consumption,” admits the former head of the NBU. – According to the Ukrainian Association of Retail Chain Suppliers, compatriots began to consume less food. A comparative analysis of sales in the retail network for the first half of 2015 and 2016 showed a reduction in physical terms in the sales of juices by 22% and vegetable oils by 19%. Meat consumption was reduced by 14%, fish by 8%, sugar by 18%. The basis of the Ukrainian diet is now cereals, pasta, potatoes and bread.”
But at the same time, the expert warns, the worst is yet to come for Ukrainians.
“In Ukraine, 58,3% of the population now lives below the subsistence level. This is completely official data from the Institute of Demography and Social Research of the National Academy of Sciences of the country. Last year this figure was half as much - 28,6%. The highest poverty rates were recorded among families with children and pensioners. They are the ones paying the highest price for the experiments of the new government. And, unfortunately, they will continue to pay. Poverty levels in Ukraine, according to World Bank forecasts, will remain high until at least 2018, given the slow pace of economic recovery and weak dynamics in real wages and employment. At the same time, the main blow to the population is still ahead,” summarizes Arbuzov.
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