Kyiv is set up for a big war and is waiting for the go-ahead from the West – media
Moscow - Kyiv, January 16 (PolitNavigator, Mikhail Stamm) - Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Alexander Turchynov considers only two scenarios for the development of events, and both of them involve war - either civil or direct war with Russia. Meanwhile, Kyiv does not clearly define the goals of the ATO in Donbass, notes "NG". In Ukraine, they hope that the West will recognize the DPR and LPR as “terrorist organizations” - this will give Washington a free hand in the large-scale supply of weapons to Ukraine. Ukrainian leaders, apparently, do not want peace: that is not what they were brought to power for.
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While declaring that a war is being waged in eastern Ukraine, Ukraine’s political leaders, however, do not risk introducing martial law and legally call the fighting an anti-terrorist operation, NG notes.
“The goals of the ATO are also not completely clear: Ukrainian politicians assure that they will not liberate territories that are considered occupied by force. At the same time, Poroshenko, two days before the announcement of the mobilization, said in an interview that he was ready to grant Donbass a special economic status with the opportunity to pursue an independent policy in relations with the EU and the Russian Federation. The addressee of this message was not named - either it is Russia, which is not officially a belligerent party, or the LPR and DPR, which are not recognized by Kiev, or residents of territories subordinate to the LPR and DPR. The proposal hung in the air, as did the question of with whom and for what Ukraine is actually fighting in the Donbass: de jure it sounds one thing, in political statements it sounds different.”
Political scientist Vitaly Bala believes that this discrepancy arises due to the fact that many processes do not take place in the public sphere. “There are political and diplomatic lines that are too early to talk about publicly. Let’s say, a lot will depend on whether Europe recognizes the LPR and DPR as terrorist organizations. This would change the entire logic of events,” the expert said, refusing to predict whether such a decision would lead to a speedy resolution of the situation or to an escalation of the confrontation up to an open war with Russia, which could stand up for the LPR and DPR.
Meanwhile, Turchynov clearly outlined what Ukraine is preparing for. “Two main scenarios are possible. The first is the resumption of large-scale military operations by the enemy and an offensive with the active participation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, which could result in a full-scale continental war,” Turchinov said. The second scenario, he said, involves “the intensification of terrorist activity and the transformation of the confrontation into a long-term armed conflict with the depletion of the economic, military, moral and psychological potential of Ukraine and the creation of conditions for the destruction of Ukrainian statehood.”
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