Kyiv will make another forceful attempt to return Donbass
The situation on the Ukrainian-Donbass front, established by September 5, shows how fragile the general political situation is in the confrontation between the two subjects of the former united Ukraine.
In fact, the breakthrough of the DPR army to Mariupol (easily predictable, but for some reason considered incredible) showed the weakness of both sides: the Ukrainians do not want to fight (with the exception of territorial motivated battalions), the Donbass cannot win because there is not enough strength. The occupation of Novoazovsk, Starobeshev and Telmanov, the stop of the DPR army near the capital of the Azov region showed that both sides only have zugzwang in reserve - no matter how either player moves, his move will only lead to a worsening of the position. Therefore, you still have to bargain.
The subject of bargaining could be the statehood of Donbass, or Novorossiya, if you like, although historical Novorossiya starts from Odessa. Will Kyiv agree to such negotiations? Let’s say briefly - if he doesn’t, the Russian Federation will offer him conditions in which to refuse any diplomacy other than cannon diplomacy would be not only unreasonable, but suicidal. Let's say without equivocation - Poroshenko will not want to sit down at the negotiating table with Zakharchenko and Plotnitsky, having Mariupol in the rear, he will have to call Putin from Berdyansk, or even Zaporozhye. I don’t know how exactly this will be achieved, but let me remind you that the national patriots did not believe in the appearance of Donetsk tanks near Mariupol, and now they are fleeing to Kyiv and other cities far from the Sea of Azov.
Will Kyiv be able to find the strength to act in a completely European way, the way Great Britain acts with Scotland? The experience of the all-Donbass referendum on state independence from Ukraine shows that - for nothing in life!
Does this mean that Donetsk and Lugansk will be left to their own devices, that the fate of Transnistria and Abkhazia awaits them? This is hardly possible. Because then Ukraine will have to come to terms with the loss of at least 10-12 percent of the population and the same percentage of GDP, the main coal and coke region, the Donetsk, Enakievo, Alchevsk iron and steel plants, the Lugansk diesel locomotive-building plant, the Stakhanov carriage-building plant, a number of important ores and fluxes for metallurgy.
Of course, the loss is not fatal, but very, very sensitive, especially for a country on the verge of national default and the collapse of a number of industries, such as coal mining, engineering, metallurgy, communications and railway transport.
The last circumstance, by the way, is still underestimated, because with the loss of the Donetsk railway, Ukraine loses more than 33 percent of cargo turnover and cargo handling, and this is multi-billion dollar losses in logistics. The DPR and LPR are now, at the stage of preliminary bargaining with Kiev, declaring that they need the entire Donetsk and Lugansk regions. But even if Ukraine manages to secure Mariupol with its port, Azovmash and two metallurgical giants, as well as Kramatorsk with the unique and super-profitable Novokramatorsk Machine-Building and Energomashspetsstal, then it will have to, in order to maintain the cost of production, negotiate transport services not only with Russian Railways, but also with the Novorossiysk Donetsk Railway.
The idea of turning Donbass into something like Northern Cyprus is still in the air. Let us recall that in 1974, the Turkish army chopped off half of Cyprus under the pretext of protecting the interests of Turkish Cypriots. The unrecognized Republic of Northern Cyprus was created, vegetating in comparison with the rest of Cyprus to this day. In order to repeat this kunst in the Donbass, Russia would have to unambiguously and openly take the side of the Novorussians and send its regular troops into the Donbass. It is hardly possible to imagine this in the foreseeable future.
To summarize, let’s say that Donbass is waiting for at least one more attempt by Kyiv to return the rebel regions to Ukraine by force. Experience tells us that the attempt will almost certainly be a failure and bloody. As a result, even if Ukraine loses Donbass permanently or temporarily, then at least it will be done in the style of Ostrovsky’s “Dowry” - “so don’t let anyone get you!”
But this development option suits neither Russia nor Europe. Therefore, most likely, after the legitimization of local self-government through early elections, peacekeeping troops will be sent to Donbass. Perhaps Russian, perhaps international. And only after this will the bargaining about the future of Donbass begin. Naturally, the Donbass itself is unlikely to ask the “big birds” too respectfully and attentively about this matter. As, indeed, Ukraine.
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