In order to overthrow President Poroshenko, his political opponents could unleash a full-scale war in the Donbass, writes Rostislav Ishchenko, president of the Center for System Analysis and Forecasting, in Izvestia.
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“There is no politician in Ukraine who for a long time and persistently would not want to remove Poroshenko and would not want to climb into his place, becoming the main one in dividing up the loot,” the author notes. – A long time ago (two years ago) his overthrow by force was prepared, relying on Nazi battalions integrated into the Ministry of Internal Affairs. But in order to maintain at least conditional control over the country and to be recognized by the world community, Poroshenko’s potential successors need him to transfer power voluntarily and legitimately.
Petr Alekseevich, naturally, refuses to do this. Firstly, Poroshenko dreamed of the presidency for too long and irrationally to just leave. Secondly, he has nowhere to go. No matter what guarantees his opponents give him, he understands perfectly well that the moment he loses power, they will begin to hunt him, just as they hunted Yanukovych.”
Ishchenko points out that so far Poroshenko’s only support is the army, while the SBU is not strong enough, and the Ministry of Internal Affairs is under the control of the enemy – Avakov.
“If you intercept the levers of control of the armed forces, Poroshenko will have no chance of effective resistance and you can try to force him to capitulate. Martial law sharply strengthens the powers of the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Turchynov to manage security forces. Poroshenko is losing the opportunity to give direct orders to the generals. Only through Turchinov.
Consequently, martial law deprives Poroshenko of his power base and makes him defenseless. Therefore, now in Kyiv there is a struggle for control over the army. And it directly affects the situation in Donbass,” the political scientist summarizes. – Moreover, if Poroshenko, in order to obtain arguments against his opponents, staged a fake war, limiting himself to heavy artillery shelling, but without serious infantry battles, then his opponents, in order to achieve the introduction of martial law, are ready to unleash a real full-scale war. So far Poroshenko is holding out, but how long does he have left?”