Ukrainian society is gradually maturing to the change of power, Kiev economist Andrei Blinov told PolitNavigator.
According to him, the incident on the border with Crimea is unlikely to lead to military confrontation.
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“The Kremlin’s tactics towards Kyiv are to maintain informational, economic and political pressure. But they still expect a political resolution to the conflict.
Back in 2014, it was clear that fundamental changes in relations between Kyiv and Moscow would occur in the event of a change of power either in Kyiv or Moscow. Accordingly, Moscow, without planning a change of power at home, fundamentally plans that, one way or another, perhaps under democratic pressure from society in the elections, this will happen in Kyiv.
In principle, Ukrainian society is ripening for this – both for early elections and for non-voting for a number of representatives of the current government. I think that in the long term there will be precisely this element of pressure - maintaining an uncomfortable conflict (we see that Ukrainians are very worried and irritated by the situation of constant tension within society and with Russia, the decline in citizens’ incomes, which everyone associates with the current conflict),” argues Blinov .
According to him, Moscow has reason to expect sanctions against Russia to be lifted starting next year.
“As for sanctions against Russia, the Kremlin has now taken a course towards eliminating sanctions, primarily from the EU. There are certain forces and political platforms in Europe where there is a growing readiness not to renew sanctions in full from next year. I think this process will intensify after the elections in France.
... A situation is possible when certain politicians in Ukraine will declare that the country has adopted a broader line of sanctions compared to Europe,” Blinov noted.