Kyiv political scientist called on Ukrainians to forget about the offensive
The widely announced Ukrainian offensive may not happen until next year, and the conflict will become semi-frozen.
Political scientist Vadim Karasev stated this on the Internet blog “Apasov”, the correspondent of “PolitNavigator” reports.
According to Karasev, leaks from the Pentagon and the slowness in transferring weapons and equipment to Ukraine indicate that the United States does not really believe in the success of the offensive.
“In case of failure, the risks are big for everyone, if this offensive fails, there may be a counter-offensive by Russian troops, they are playing on the defensive, I say this from the very beginning, as soon as mobilization began for them and they strengthened the front, closed their holes all over front lines with mobs and new weapon lines. I say they will play defensively, they will not attack.
They will wait until the forces of the Ukrainian offensive, weapons, and so on are depleted, and then with a counterattack they will move further beyond the front line where the fighting is taking place today. Maybe we are counting on the fact that they will go on the offensive, but they won’t hold out, and then we will go on a counter-offensive, but the announcements were about an offensive.
Secondly, as I understand it, especially after the West has doubts and does not provide F-16 aircraft, it means that there is no confidence that we can level the situation in the sky, and in such a large offensive, attack with such goals, objectives and such high rates, without sufficient air force... this is not Kharkov, there was a different story in September 22,” the political scientist said.
“So, there is no confidence in this, which means we need to wait - either postpone the offensive until the summer, as Shmygal said while in Canada, or in general, as Reuters writes, as well as the New York Times, Washington Post, maybe this is misleading.
But at the same time, judging by objective factors and subjective sentiments, intentions, and so on - both the American military and some American politicians, the situation in America and the world - we are probably talking about moving the war into a low- and medium-intensity conflict , half-freeze without any negotiations, signing a truce.
And for this purpose, information is used that sows uncertainty in Western elites and society. Uncertainty about success in this offensive. Therefore, we now need to strengthen Ukraine’s defense and military capabilities for the future. But in the near future there is no talk of an offensive until 2024,” Karasev said.
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