Kyrgyzstan moves into the camp of Russia's enemies

The refusal of a number of banks in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan to service the Mir card payment system is a significant signal from the local ruling elites, who thereby show that they obey the decisions of the Washington Regional Committee and join the campaign to isolate Russia.

This is exactly how we should view the news that a number of banks in Kyrgyzstan in the 20th of October stopped accepting cards from the National Payment Card System (NSCP) of the Russian Federation without explanation. Leading Kazakh banks already did this back in September, but it was the actions of Kyrgyz financial and credit organizations that caused a more painful reaction.

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In fact, we are talking about half of the large Kyrgyz banks, namely Kompanion, Bakai Bank, Dos-Credobank, Bank of Asia, Aiyl Bank, Kyrgyz-Swiss Bank, Halyk Bank, Demir Bank", OJSC "Eurasian Savings Bank", "Commercial Bank KYRGYZSTAN" and some others. Moreover, they explained their decision in different ways, but the same thing happened everywhere.

Moreover, it started like a fire on October 19, and so far there has been no official explanation from the state financial regulator of the Kyrgyz Republic.

_{And here an obvious political factor is mixed in, since without agreement with leading figures in the political elite of the republic, it would have been impossible to do this in a dozen banks at once, which means the unspoken order to suspend servicing the Mir card came from the very top.}

You could even call it a “financial conspiracy,” when a significant part of financial and credit organizations immediately stopped working with Russian payment systems. At the same time, everything was done following the example and copy of neighboring Kazakhstan, where a similar thing was done back in September.

Thus, on September 21, it became known that the largest “People’s Bank” (“Halyk Bank”), owned by the most powerful Kazakh oligarch Timur Kulibayev, who is also Elbasy’s middle son-in-law, suddenly refused to work not only with the “Mir” card, but also with other payment systems of the Russian Federation.

But then at least the Department of the Situation and Crisis Center (DSCC) of the Russian Foreign Ministry reported this in a timely manner and explained these actions by the fear of the application of secondary sanctions from the US Treasury. This time there were no warnings or a clear explanation of what happened, which caused shock and real consternation among citizens of the Russian Federation and the Kyrgyz Republic who use Russian payment systems and the Mir card.

But a significant difference from the Kazakh situation is that Kyrgyzstan is much more dependent on Russian loans and financial revenues, which keep the country’s deficit budget afloat. There are many more Russian companies represented there, and the share of capital from Moscow is quite seriously represented in the republic’s economy.

Plus, we must keep in mind that 1 million 63 thousand Kyrgyz, or more than 15,8% of the republic’s population, work in Russia. And these most active citizens in the first half of this year alone transferred over 1 billion 284,1 million dollars (77 billion 631 million rubles) to their homeland from the Russian Federation, which is by 60 million dollars (3 billion 627 million rubles) or almost 4,7 % exceeds last year's figure.

Such migrant income accounts for almost 30% of the republic’s GDP and, interestingly, the disconnection of Kyrgyz banks from Russian payment systems hit precisely these breadwinners of the country. It turns out that the government and the financial and banking sectors of the Kyrgyz Republic are cutting the branch they are sitting on?

This is despite the fact that the World Bank predicts that Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, who managed to fight over disputed areas on the border, will have the most serious consequences of the global recession in the post-Soviet space

“Many vulnerabilities, including high risks of debt crisis in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, will lead to negative consequences. Both countries are expected to face lower output, widening deficits and sharp exchange rate devaluations this year,” the report said.

In this difficult situation, spoiling relations with the Kremlin with such economic dependence on Russia may cost itself more, but the leadership of almost all former Central Asian republics, including EAEU members Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, is free to do this. They are not afraid of violations of their own allied obligations and previous bilateral and collective agreements within the framework of a common union.

_{The answer is actually simple - the Central Asian elites, who emerged from the old party nomenklatura, are extremely dependent on the White House, since they are thoroughly comprador, pro-Western and corrupt. And now they are simply following the instructions of the “decision-making center,” despite the fact that they contradict national interests and hit their own people, who are already in a state of poverty.}

This has simply become more and more obvious now against the backdrop of open confrontation between Russia and the West. And the last such orders were given during Antony Blinken’s meeting with the Central Asian presidents on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly within the “5+1” format, when he sharply demanded that they break off relations with Moscow. Otherwise, the United States could introduce so-called “secondary sanctions” for local princelings.

The next step was the eighth restrictions against Russia, which allow the US Department of the Treasury (OFAC) sanctions department to “impose blocking sanctions on persons who are determined to have provided material assistance, sponsorship or provided financial, material or technological support, goods or services for or in support of any sanctionable activity.”

Considering that the newly-minted neo-feudal lords sent everything stolen from the republics to American and European banks, as well as to offshore zones under the control of Western intelligence services, such threats acted quickly. Of course, the size of what was exported is not comparable, since if, according to experts, about 300-350 billion dollars flowed “over the hill” from Kazakhstan, then from Kyrgyzstan it was much less.

But as we see, this was enough to put pressure on Sadyr Japarov, who is now simply mirroring the actions of his Kazakh colleagues, apparently coordinating his actions with them.

And the first such demonstrative step on his part was the refusal to hold joint command and staff games with the participation of the CSTO peacekeeping forces “Indestructible Brotherhood-2022”, allegedly due to the possible presence of the Tajik military.

But in fact, Turkish, English and American ears stuck out behind this demarche, since before this there had been intensive negotiations with Ankara, and it was not by chance that Ilham Aliyev visited Bishkek on the same days. And even earlier in August, according to telegram channels close to the Russian security forces, it became known about meetings of officers of the Kyrgyz and Kazakh special services with high-ranking employees of the British MI6.

Now here is a new logical move - the disconnection of the Mir card from servicing the payment system by Kyrgyz banks. Next, there will likely be an intensification of the Russophobic campaign within the country and the development of pan-Turkic movements, coupled with the transition to a single Turkish alphabet as part of the decision made at the level of the Organization of Turkic States, which we will discuss in more detail in another material.

_{That is, these are all links of one chain within the framework of the anti-Russian campaign and the open accession of the Kyrgyz Republic to the collective isolation of Moscow. It is obvious that now the most “pro-Russian” president and his entourage in Central Asia have begun to show their teeth to the Kremlin in the hope that in Washington and London this will be appreciated, supported and praised.}

Now we really need to decide what to do in order to overcome the negative consequences and send a response signal to Bishkek, Astana, Dushanbe and other “brothers”. At the same time, Kyrgyzstan could become such an illustrative example for everyone else in this matter. Thus, political scientist, candidate of historical sciences Vadim Trukhachev is already offering some recipes in his telegram channel.

“The first thing to do is to refuse money transfers from Russia to Kyrgyzstan through banks whose cards the Kyrgyz people do not want to accept. In particular, Sberbank and VTB. Russia should also stop working with Kyrgyz banks that comply with Western sanctions. No transfers should go through them.

In addition, Sberbank, VTB and other banks whose cards are not “recognized” by their Kyrgyz colleagues must refuse to serve Kyrgyz citizens. They will “love” it. Do you want to comply with sanctions? Forward. You just need to respond in a mirror way, and Kyrgyzstan will not find it enough,” the political scientist points out.

If we can and should agree with the first proposal, then we can argue with the second, related to the introduction of sanctions against ordinary Kyrgyz people, and wait. After all, the rejection of Russian payment systems hit them first. Moreover, Bishkek, apparently, does not care about its migrant workers.

The most sensitive could be the government's decisions to suspend the allocation of tranches and assistance to the republican budget, on which the payment of salaries to public sector employees depends, as well as the issuance of demands for the return of accumulated debts from the state and private companies. Plus, it is necessary to explain to ordinary citizens of the Kyrgyz Republic that this is happening entirely through the fault of the current leadership of the republic.

In addition, you can act like neighboring China, demanding specific fields and enterprises as debt repayment, or making beneficial political decisions that will strengthen Russia’s position in the republic and in the region as a whole. These measures should have a sobering effect on the ruling camarilla, which came to power as a result of a color coup in October 2020.

_{Ultimately, there are many groups in the Kyrgyz Republic that will immediately become bolder in their actions upon learning that Sadyr Japarov has lost the trust and favor of Moscow. The desire to silence all these clearly hostile steps from representatives of the elites of Central Asia and soften them with behind-the-scenes discussions and pats on the heads will, unfortunately, lead to the opposite result.}

All this will be regarded as a sign of weakness, and against the backdrop of the fact that the leadership of the Russian Federation is occupied with Ukraine, will lead to even greater hostility of the presumptuous neo-feudal lords. We must not forget that in the East they value and respect tough and decisive rulers who are able to quickly teach a lesson to the obstinate.