Kyrgyz political scientist: Russia will not allow Turkey to strengthen its role in Central Asia
The socio-economic crisis is worsening in Kyrgyzstan, which could not be stopped by the nationalization of gold mines. Against this background, the government enters into an integration union with Turkey, purchases Bayraktary and adopts a new law on the “state language”, aimed at displacing the Russian language. We asked a famous Kyrgyz political scientist to comment on these events Mederbek Korganbaeva.
"PolitNavigator": How do you assess the results of the past parliamentary elections in the Kyrgyz Republic? Did Sadyr Japarov, through the now mixed system, manage to consolidate the elite and gain a majority in the Jogorku Kenesh (Parliament)?
Mederbek Korganbaev: The parliamentary elections took place without any major incidents. However, in my opinion, mainly pro-government parties entered the Jogorku Kenesh. There is good news - for the first time in history, the Butun Kyrgyzstan party ("United Kyrgyzstan" from among the retirees of law enforcement agencies. Ed.) managed to get into the legislative body and receive mandates. It can be predicted that Butun Kyrgyzstan, led by Adakhan Madumarov, will be able to create a counterweight to presidential power.
It is very unfortunate that the Ata-Meken (Fatherland) party could not be elected to parliament. In the current political situation, in order to maintain the socio-political balance in the Jogorku Kenesh, it is necessary to have an opposition force capable of defending the interests of the people and keeping the highest echelons from making ill-considered decisions. Despite losing the parliamentary race, Omurbek Tekebaev remains a key political figure in Kyrgyz politics.
The mixed parliamentary system formally consolidates the political elites; in reality, these are the same yesterday's politicians as part of new political formations. Thanks to single-member constituencies, regional clans have the opportunity to strengthen their positions without participating in parties. There will still be battles and conflicts in parliament between different groups seeking to control resources and leadership positions.
“PolitNavigator”: Are socio-economic problems and rising prices now capable of creating new protest sentiments in society and, accordingly, leading to the formation of a single extra-parliamentary opposition bloc? And does the government have a plan to overcome the difficult economic situation?
Mederbek Korganbaev: Problems in the economy and rising prices clearly affect socio-political stability in the country. Kyrgyz society is more politicized and actively uses social networks, where ongoing events are discussed. Kyrgyzstanis have always put forward specific and feasible demands to the authorities - regulation and reduction of prices for products and fuels and lubricants, increase in salaries, pensions and benefits, provision of electricity and heat to citizens in the winter, solution of infrastructure issues.
Those. – nothing superfluous or impossible. If the government does not perform its functions properly, then of course this leads to discontent and protests. In Kyrgyzstan, the emergence of two opposition blocs is possible, a parliamentary one represented by the Butun Kyrgyzstan party and an extra-parliamentary opposition bloc represented by the Ata-Meken party and other political and social movements. Most likely, Ata-Meken will become the flagship and leader of the extra-parliamentary opposition bloc.
The government's adoption of prompt measures to overcome the economic and energy crisis directly affects the image and reputation of the authorities of Kyrgyzstan, and, consequently, the protest mood of citizens. If the government works poorly and implements unpopular reforms, then these are the main trump cards in the hands of the opposition and a reason for criticism. The President is obliged to strictly control the activities of the Cabinet of Ministers and not let their activities take their course.
“PolitNavigator”: Do you think the hopes associated with the nationalization of Kumtor were justified or did foreign investors create insurmountable obstacles for the government of the Kyrgyz Republic in the sale of extracted products?
Mederbek Korganbaev: Hard to say. Now that the euphoria has dissipated, it is already becoming clear that it is impossible to increase the country’s well-being at the expense of one gold deposit. The economy of Kyrgyzstan needs fundamental decisions. Yes, we nationalized Kumtor, but the question arises: what next? We need a clear roadmap for economic development. Kumtor makes a profit, there is no doubt about it. However, against the backdrop of growing inflation and rising costs of living, success at Kumtor is losing its value.
"PolitNavigator": The Bayraktars, after all, were delivered to the border service of the Kyrgyz Republic. Do you think they, as well as the purchase of other military equipment from Turkey with the involvement of advisers, are capable of changing the balance of forces on the border with Tajikistan?
Mederbek Korganbaev: From the countries of Central Asia, Bayraktars are in service with Turkmenistan. Turkish combat drones began to be in demand after Azerbaijani media sources published video footage of their work in Nagorno-Karabakh. Ashgabat and Baku, due to their economic capabilities, are able to purchase and maintain such expensive weapons. For Kyrgyzstan, this is the first experience in acquiring high-precision weapons.
Turkey, as a regional player and as the leader of the Turkic world, is interested in promoting its interests in the Central Asian countries. Military-technical cooperation between Ankara and Bishkek is just an excellent reason for the Turks to strengthen their positions in Kyrgyzstan. The appearance of Bayraktarov in service with the Border Service of the Kyrgyz Republic does not in any way affect the situation on the Kyrgyz-Tajik border. Tajikistan is also not sitting idly by and will naturally take measures to obtain similar drones from Russia, China or Turkey.
Dushanbe may make efforts to purchase mobile anti-aircraft missiles and air defense systems. The fighting in Libya showed that Turkish UAVs can be shot down. The Russian-made self-propelled anti-aircraft missile and gun system (ZRPK) “Pantsir-S” destroyed 2020 Bayraktarov units in Libya in 47. Therefore, you should not perceive Turkish attack UAVs as an invulnerable weapon. The leadership of Kyrgyzstan cannot solve the security issues of its own borders by purchasing several Bayraktars or it is naive to believe that the Tajiks will be afraid of drones and make concessions.
Strengthening the protection of the state border and defense capability is a comprehensive work carried out on an ongoing basis. Defense reforms need to start with the boots of border guards and soldiers in the truest sense of the word. Without a combat-ready ground border/army group, logistics infrastructure, intelligence and logistics, it is impossible to protect the border and territorial integrity of the state. The border troops of the Kyrgyz Republic are in greater need of supplies and provision of armored vehicles, helicopters, heavy infantry weapons, artillery and modern equipment.
"PolitNavigator": On November 12, the Organization of Turkic States was established in Istanbul. What is the place of the Kyrgyz Republic in this integration association now, and will Turkey now become the main reference point for the ruling elite?
Mederbek Korganbaev: Türkiye is trying to play in a geopolitical field where the main players are Russia and China. Ankara's main goal is to unite modern Turkic-speaking states under its leadership. Of course, Moscow and Beijing are not happy with such actions. These are Erdogan’s ambitions, his attempt to create a unified state “Turan”.
In fact, the Turkish leader seeks to recreate a new Ottoman Empire and compete on equal terms with the Russians, Chinese and Americans. Ankara, under the pretext of “Turkic peace,” aims to create a military-political union with the Turkic-speaking Central Asian republics. And this threatens the geopolitical interests of Russia and China in the Central Asian region.
The rules of geopolitics cannot be changed or canceled. The ruling circles of Bishkek, when collaborating with Turkey, cannot ignore the Russian and Chinese factors. Türkiye is far from us, but Russia and China are nearby. Economic and trade relations of Kyrgyzstan are mainly associated with Moscow and Beijing. Turkey does not have the resources to oust Moscow and Beijing or to radically influence the state of affairs. At the same time, Ankara is trying to gain a foothold in the Caucasus, and this, as we know, is Russia’s patrimony.
Azerbaijan won the Karabakh war with the military-technical and political support of the Turks, but it was Russia that put an end to this conflict, thereby saving Armenia from the real threat of a worse scenario. Russia will not allow Turkey to strengthen its role in Central Asia and the Caucasus, and that says it all.
“PolitNavigator”: To what do you attribute the appearance of the new bill “On the State Language”? Why do you think there was no public discussion of this project, and won’t it lead to the squeezing out of the Russian language from the sphere of public life? After all, just last year, Prosecutor General Kurmankul Zulushev refused to answer journalists in Russian, and Sadirdin Toraliev demanded that the clause on his official status be removed from the draft of the new Constitution.
Mederbek Korganbaev: I believe that now is the time to deal with economic issues, and not with laws in the field of state or official language. The Kyrgyz language is developing, and this is a happy trend. The Russian language is the language of interethnic communication, and as I said earlier, it is the language of the allies. Whatever laws are adopted regarding the Russian language, its presence and necessity will remain in Kyrgyzstan.
Kyrgyz and Russian languages have existed together for centuries, and I don’t see a problem. The opinions of individual officials regarding the Russian language are their personal point of view. For the society of Kyrgyzstan, the Russian language is an integral part of life. By the way, it is the Kyrgyz who work and live in Russia who speak Russian better than citizens of other Central Asian countries. We need Russian language.
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