Kyrgyz-Tajik conflict: hope is only in Russia
The expert community is increasingly asking the question: is it possible to maintain stability and peace in Central Asia, especially against the backdrop of a permanent border conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan? Moreover, it is now hot in Tajikistan itself, since unrest has broken out there in the Gorno-Badakhshan region and there are clashes with the Taliban on the very border with Afghanistan.
On this topic, a fairly representative conference “Conflicts on the borders of Central Asia: will the CSTO restore peace?”, initiated and prepared by the “Pikir” discussion club, was held in Bishkek on May 17. It was attended by both Kyrgyz officials, political scientists, journalists and public figures. The author of these lines also managed to speak at the event from Kazakhstan.
The first report on Russia’s position on the border disputes that arose between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan was made by the famous Russian political scientist Nikita Mendkovich and the head of the Eurasian Analytical Club.
He said that Moscow does not intend to pull chestnuts out of the fire for either side or forcefully separate the conflicting parties. The expert also recalled that Russia offered various mediation services to both sides of the conflict many times, but never received any response from either Bishkek or Dushanbe. A similar appeal was addressed to the leadership of the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan on behalf of the CSTO in January of this year, but again there was no reaction. It turns out that a deadlock has formed and, according to the analyst, at the first stage we can try to resolve it in the legal sphere.
“The dispute needs to be resolved legally on the basis of archives located in Moscow. Moscow could act as a kind of moderator, providing the necessary archival documents. Twice during 2020, this proposal was voiced by the Russian Foreign Ministry. But the Foreign Ministries of both countries refused Russia’s proposal. What can Moscow do in this case? Nothing!” the political scientist noted.
In the meantime, the dispute between Bishkek and Dushanbe does not subside and the two states do not show any desire for real negotiations to begin with the mediation participation of Russia. And this is a sad factor that may destabilize the situation in the future.
“Consultations between Bishkek and Dushanbe very often result in each side declaring that it is unilaterally right. Each of the parties does not want arbitration proceedings, but wants to be provided with weapons for an absolute resolution of the conflict in its favor. Russia doesn’t play these games,” Mendkovich said.
In his opinion, criminal organizations associated with smuggling flows may be involved in the disruption of peacekeeping initiatives and the escalation of clashes, which influence the leadership of the two republics, preventing them from resolving the situation and carrying out the final delimitation and demarcation of borders.
As one of the options for solving the current situation, the expert proposed placing border units of the Russian Federation in close proximity to the borders of the two countries to conduct operational monitoring of the situation. This will sharply reduce the likelihood of the use of weapons by one of the parties, since arbitration observers will be there and will make it possible to record who started a new escalation with the corresponding political consequences.
In response to these statements, the Secretary of the Security Council of Kyrgyzstan, Marat Imankulov, hastened to note that this is not so and the leadership of the republic is trying to establish contact with Dushanbe and come to an acceptable agreement with its neighbor.
“They say we don’t want to resolve this issue. We want! The head of our state, President Sadyr Japarov, and our government have complete political will and determination.
Last year in April, after the conflict in the Batken region, our president was the first to fly to Dushanbe, despite the fact that our citizens might have misunderstood him after such a tragedy. He went with only one purpose - to come to an agreement with the leadership of Tajikistan and quickly resolve the border problem,” said the Secretary of the Security Council of the Kyrgyz Republic.
He hastened to assure that the dialogue with the leadership of the Republic of Tajikistan is being maintained, and the Tajik people themselves are not hostile, since there are centuries-old cultural and economic ties. At the same time, he agreed that the CSTO could not and cannot intervene in border clashes, due to the fact that this is not provided for in its charter. The mediation services of the defense alliance and Moscow have so far been ignored by Bishkek, according to Marat Imankulov, due to the fact that the ruling elites today are able to independently come to a common agreement
According to him, an intergovernmental commission operates, meetings of heads of state are held, and in particular, the last one was at the CSTO summit on May 16 in Moscow. And supposedly there are already positive aspects that indicate a quick resolution of the disputes. Moreover, now both the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan face common challenges and threats emanating from the territory of Afghanistan, since the danger of invasion from Islamic extremists remains.
Such an optimistic view is, of course, laudable, but may not reflect reality. Yes, now Dushanbe has no time for a showdown with Bishkek due to internal problems and clashes with the armed wing of the opposition, as well as with units of the Taliban and other groups on its borders.
But no one gives guarantees that after this all controversial issues will be resolved at the negotiating table, since saber-rattling and small “victorious wars” are beneficial for strengthening the power of the ruling elites.
A more sober and realistic approach was expressed by the former Ambassador of the Kyrgyz Republic to Tajikistan Miroslav Niyazov, who has no doubt that it is simply impossible to do without Russia’s intervention as a guarantor of stability and peace in the region. After all, the parties cannot come to an agreement, and bilateral negotiations have simply reached a dead end.
“The Delimitation and Demarcation Commission has practically exhausted itself. It is not capable of independently solving the problem of resolving border issues. From this point of view, it is necessary to have several options that may come in handy over time. I consider Russia’s participation in this complex issue inevitable. B
Without the provision of various materials from archives in Moscow, the two countries will not be able to solve their border problems,” the Kyrgyz ex-diplomat supported the position of Nikita Mendkovich.
Military expert and veteran of the Kyrgyz special services Nurlan Dosaliev also spoke out for active Russian participation in conflict resolution, who saw the hand of the American military and diplomats in escalating the tense situation, who have recently been pumping up the army of neighboring Tajikistan with weapons, equipment and specialists.
According to him, the American Embassy is now reporting on permanent supplies for the armed forces of the Republic of Tajikistan and states that these supplies are needed purely for training special forces to fight Islamists, but this argument causes a lot of controversy and mistrust.
“The United States claims that it is preparing Tajikistan supposedly to stop threats from Afghanistan. But the Americans literally fled from Afghanistan last year, declaring that they had solved all the main problems in Afghanistan! This is some kind of double game, double standards. And these actions somehow have a ricochet effect on the national security of Kyrgyzstan.
Yesterday mass unrest began in Gorno-Badakhshan. We remember history: in the spring of 1990, events first began in Gorno-Badakhshan, which wanted to separate from Dushanbe, and in June we had tragic events in Osh. Now these events have begun again in the spring... This series of events looks like a pattern,” the expert notes.
He comes to the conclusion that the region is being deliberately set on fire and the current conflict between the two republics may be beneficial to the Americans and the West, so that the embers of mistrust and hostility between the CSTO allies in the region constantly smolder.
And in this situation, it is vitally important to place special monitoring groups of Russian military personnel on the border of the two countries in order to stop threats and stay ahead of enemies.
Adding to the tension is the presence of 12 thousand militants hostile to the Taliban in northern Afghanistan from among the militants of the former ISIS and IMU (Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan), as well as Uighur units conducting military operations with official Kabul.
Another military observer and expert on national security issues, Taalaibek Dzhumadylov, spoke in the same spirit, saying that it is necessary to stop by all means the supporters of a forceful solution to the conflict in the leadership of the two republics, and without the participation of Moscow it is almost impossible to do this.
Therefore, he proposed creating an appropriate political background for condemning any violent and military actions and their instigators, in order to initially deprive them of the necessary pseudo-patriotic soil.
“Whatever one may say, we lived as part of one state, in one civilizational, theological, cultural, educational space. In this sense, problems can be solved. We need to clearly state at the highest political level that there are no military-technical methods and methods for resolving these issues.
We must adhere, both in the sphere of rhetoric, and in the sphere of methodology, and in the sphere of negotiations, to such a format that solving this problem is possible only through political and diplomatic means. The governments of both countries should strictly suppress talk about the very possibility of a military solution to the problem,” the expert reasonably noted.
The author of this publication indicated in his speech that a difficult situation remains on the border between Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, since Nur-Sultan (Tselinograd) constantly carries out a permanent transport and economic blockade of the republic, creating constant problems for transiters of Kyrgyz cargo to the markets of Russia and other countries EAEU. And this problem lies in political contradictions and in the desire of the Kazakh oligarchy to impose its will on Kyrgyzstan.
The fact is that despite the change of presidents, Kyrgyzstan remains loyal to Russia due to political crises and is an island and pillar of Eurasian integration in the region. And the ruling Kazakh elite, which views Kyrgyzstan as its own “backyard,” constantly strives to establish its own puppet regime in the republic, also fulfilling the order of Western imperialist forces and centers.
“Sadyr Japarov nationalized Kumtor, hitting the Canadian corporation and creating a dangerous precedent and example of the possibility of nationalizing mining enterprises owned by American and European corporations in Kazakhstan and Central Asia. Therefore, the current ruling layer in Kyrgyzstan still remains toxic for Nur-Sultan, as well as for Western capital,” the speaker concluded.
And in this matter it is necessary to support Kyrgyzstan, which has already suffered from the pandemic, restrictive measures and blockade, since the attempts of the Kazakh side to put pressure on Bishkek and destabilize the situation in the republic will invariably undermine the Eurasian Economic Union itself.
Accordingly, the way out of the current situation lies within the framework of the general process of integration between the republics within the framework of the EAEU and the CSTO. Well, the rejection of many years of multi-vector policy and understanding of the need to build a common defensive military-political alliance should also help overcome contradictions in the future.
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