Kyiv, November 15 (PolitNavigator, Mikhail Ryabov) – The likelihood of a militia attack on Mariupol is high, as Russia needs a tough response to the ongoing economic sanctions of the West.
Diplomat Oleg Voloshin, who headed the press service of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry during the time of Viktor Yanukovych, stated this on the Inter TV channel.
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“Putin’s goal is not Ukraine, Putin’s goal is an attempt to change the entire system of international relations that developed after the end of the Cold War. He wants to achieve equal great power status from the West along with China, the EU, and the USA. He wants the West to recognize the post-Soviet space as its sphere of influence. Today the question of the occupation of Ukraine is not on the agenda... It is a crazy story that Putin wants to include Ukraine in Russia. He doesn't need it. He is much more pragmatic. He wants to neutralize Ukraine so that it is at least nowhere, and at most in Russia’s sphere of influence...
But now the situation has developed that China has signed a colossally important agreement with the United States to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It would seem, what does ecology have to do with it? The Chinese have shown that they will not play the anti-American game on Russia's side. They will not put pressure on Russia, but they will not help Russia resist the West. This means that Putin was left alone.
The Americans received an additional argument not to make any fundamental concessions. No guarantees that Ukraine will never be a member of NATO, a member of the EU, no official recognition of Crimea, federalization - all that Putin is seeking...
The West sees that the Russian economy is collapsing, the ruble is collapsing, oil prices are below $80 for a reason. The West is ready to wait and delay until February-March, when even according to the estimates of pro-government economists, the situation will become dire.
Therefore, Putin wants to provoke the West once again. Ideally, take Mariupol, round off the territory of the DPR and LPR, and see what happens next. Understanding that the West will not fight anyway. Show weakness - “NATO has undertaken to provide for Ukraine, so what? Soon there will be no Ukraine.” This is what Putin wants if they don’t negotiate with him in an amicable way,” Voloshin said.
“But there is no threat of invasion and capture of Kyiv. In March, obviously, it was. But there is a threat of a breakthrough towards Mariupol - advance a little and bargain from stronger positions. Our Armed Forces and SBU are preparing for this,” says the Ukrainian diplomat.