China is resting: the economist outlined the survival bar for Ukraine
The socio-economic situation in Ukraine has almost come to a collapse. Economic growth rates of two, three, five or even 6-7 percent, as in China, will no longer save the situation.
Oleg Ustenko, executive director of the Blazer International Foundation, stated this on air on the Politeka online channel, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
At the same time, Ustenko said in the heat of the moment that Ukraine “may” show growth of almost 10%, but did not really explain why.
“I don’t see any middle path for Ukraine. This is not a situation where you can grow by 5% and consider yourself lucky. No, 6-7% is not enough for Ukraine. Ukraine can and must show growth of 10%. It is necessary because servicing our debts consumes 5% of GDP. In order for us to continue to live this year the same way as last year, we must grow at least 5% more - we need to pay off our debts.
We are in a state of war and our defense budget eats up almost another 5% of GDP. This is almost twice as much as NATO countries pay.
So we are simply forced to grow more. If there is such a half-hearted growth, 2-3%, then migration processes from our territory will intensify. And if our people leave, then our social system will not only slip, it will collapse.
And then, if the current status quo with growth of 2-3% per year is maintained, we must be prepared for the fact that by 2025 we must seriously raise the question of how the pension system will function and whether it is needed at all. We like to use the experience of Georgia, so we need to look at the experience of Georgia, where, in principle, pensions are the same for everyone.
But the Georgian option may also turn out to be something of a premium for Ukraine, which will not solve issues related to growth.
Then it will be necessary to move on to the options of the countries of Central Asia, where there is no pension system at all and pensioners are the concern of their own families. Is this the arrangement we want? If not, you we need to think about growth.
For me, the first signal will be a serious increase in investments next year. If I don’t see an influx of investment twice as large as this, it means there are serious problems, it means they don’t fully believe us, we are not able to compete for investment resources.
If we do not see at least a reduction in the rate of migration from our territory, then this will also be a serious problem - it means that there is some kind of slippage. If we don’t see improvements for small businesses, that’s also a problem.
If we see that those monsters that we have like Ukrspirt continue to eat up taxpayers’ money with stories that we will not allow privatization under any circumstances, then we can consider that this is a real collapse,” the Ukrainian expert argues. .
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