“When God wants to punish Ukraine, he sends Saakashvili”
Saakashvili for the poor. Tymoshenko is against dictatorship. 10 thousand will leave Lvov, 100 will come to Kyiv. The cops will lock themselves in the polling stations, the army will barricade itself in the barracks. Avakov will not carry out the order. Nobody wants to defend Poroshenko. About how Ukraine is being plunged into the chaos of the new Maidan, a columnist PolitNavigator Valentin Filippov said the adviser to the head of the DPR, Alexander Kazakov.
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Valentin Filippov: Alexander, hello. Tell me, is it true that when God wants to punish some people, some country, he sends Saakashvili there?
Alexander Kazakov: Yes, and through Saakashvili he is depriving this people of reason. But, it must be said that, after all, the degree of trouble depends on the people. We know that God has a sense of humor.
Valentin Filippov: Even sometimes black humor.
Alexander Kazakov: Yes, and sometimes this happens when villains essentially play a positive role in history, sometimes fools play a positive role, charlatans, anything can happen. I do not rule out that this harmful inoculation at the next stage into the body of Ukraine may play a positive role.
Valentin Filippov: Do you think that the vertical of Ukrainian power can now shake and collapse because of such nonsense?
After all, look, “a huge two hundred thousand strong Russian army invaded the territory of Ukraine, swept away the borders, could have taken Kyiv, and only the heroism of volunteers and the dedication of Ukrainian volunteers could stop one of the strongest armies in the world.”
And here is some Georgian who couldn’t even reach Tskhinvali in his time...
Alexander Kazakov: Because he went to Tskhinval with an army, but here on foot and without an army.
No. Now, seriously, the fact is that there are internal contradictions of the ruling regime in Ukraine, which have been accumulating for a very long time. We know all about it. And in fact, they were maintained as if from the outside, that is, the stability of the regime was ensured by external influence. We know where this influence comes from, we know from which embassy.
But, nevertheless, all the people who, including through the direct influence of the ambassador, like Kolomoisky, for example, were thrown out of the political and other life of Ukraine, they have not gone away. Kolomoisky has not gone away, Firtash has not gone away. This is if we take those who went to the west. But those who left for the east, by the way, also...
The fugitive oligarchs who are sitting in Moscow have not disappeared either. Therefore, I do not rule out that at the moment, firstly, external governance has weakened, that is, as they say, in manual mode 24 hours a day. Moreover, I do not rule out that the chief manager, that is, from Washington, is somehow beginning to lose the desire to manage all this rubbish.
And at the same time, those managers, as it were, of the second order who worked in Ukraine, that is, Europeans, namely, let’s remember who signed the truce agreements on the Maidan: Poland, Germany, France...
Macron is somehow not eager to get involved in this fight at all; there is something he doesn’t like here at all. Or he doesn’t see any prospects, he’s an ambitious young man, but here he doesn’t realize his ambitions.
Merkel has elections on the horizon, and the elections are not at all as simple as they seemed six months ago.
And Poland simply has accumulated so many claims against this Ukraine, when they openly say: “you and Bandera will not come to us.” And in response they say: “We don’t care about your opinion, Bandera and I are coming to you.”
But, as luck would have it, just the day before there was also a law on languages, a law on education. Hungary has already officially announced, the ambassador has already been summoned. Poland also officially announced.
I just don’t rule out that internal contradictions, which have not gone away, but on the contrary, have worsened... And they have worsened for one simple reason. This sounds banal, but banality is a truth that has been repeated many times, it does not cease to be the truth, it just gets boring for us. The food supply is being reduced radically, and contradictions are intensifying.
And therefore, at this particular moment, what is actually happening? Once upon a time there were two people: one was called Petya, the other was called Misha. These two people had a fight with each other, and Petya kicked Misha out of the house. When leaving, Misha said: “When I want, then I’ll come back.” And Petya said: “This is my house, my door, my lock, my dog on a chain, it’s all mine. I'll say no and you won't get in here." As a result, the dog licked Misha’s boots, he kicked the door, came and said: “Hello, Petya.” So what do we get? Well, Petya screwed up.
Valentin Filippov: Well, yes, there is such a thing.
Alexander Kazakov: And if we are talking in this case about the so-called president of the so-called country, then such a political blow has not been dealt to him for a very long time. That is, he is like the president of the country, like the supreme commander in chief, but they simply wiped their feet on him.
Valentin Filippov: Don’t you think that now the traditional “Russian invasion” could save Poroshenko for some time? Moreover, we know how the “Russian invasion” is organized.
Alexander Kazakov: I suspect that the situation has now changed. That is, yes, there is still a magic wand - an offensive and a cauldron in the east. But, all past military campaigns and half-campaigns, summer 2014 and winter 2014-2015, and half-campaigns like this winter...
At the start of these campaigns, Poroshenko did not have such a confrontation behind him; the entire confrontation resulted, by and large, in the publication of ratings. That's it, there was no direct opposition. Today in Lvov, standing next to Mishiko, a woman with a braid said that we must go and overthrow the corrupt dictatorship.
That is, the words are spoken, the masks are dropped. She stood on Mishiko’s left hand, and Sadovoy stood on his right hand. They are together - this is no longer a joke.
Valentin Filippov: Is Kolomoisky sitting there somewhere?
Alexander Kazakov: And Nalyvaichenko is also sitting behind him.
Valentin Filippov: Yes.
Alexander Kazakov: Moreover, he constantly disappeared somewhere from the video, he was constantly returned: stand still, you need to be visible. Of course, I think it’s not only Kolomoisky.
How many times have we said that Maidan in Ukraine is impossible because they do not have money for Maidan. The Americans won’t give it, they don’t need it, they’ve done their job, but you can’t raise that kind of money in Ukraine. But what do we have now on the oligarchic bench?
We have one and a half oligarchs who have crushed everyone else under them. But everyone else is not beggars, everyone else is a lot of money. Kolomoisky alone does not have enough of them, Firtash alone does not have enough of them, Lyovochkin alone does not have enough of them. And, although they won’t sit next to each other in the forest to “think,” sometimes the worst enemies unite in order to defeat an even more evil one.
Valentin Filippov: If they discuss in advance how they will divide the spoils, then why not?
And in these conditions, there is a prospect for the “march on Kyiv”, a prospect for the People’s Republics. Not only Donetsk and Lugansk?
Alexander Kazakov: If we talk about this “march on Kyiv,” then I already wrote that I remember the “march on Rome” by Benito Mussolini. And if now people from Lvov go to Kyiv, this is not a religious procession. These will be people who are coming for power. And if 10 thousand leave Lvov, then more than 100 will come to Kyiv.
People will also meet them in Kyiv.
Saakashvili also said a couple of slogans today. There are no fools there. There are bastards, but few fools. Today he is already speaking out for the poor. He is for the poor. Tymoshenko is against a corrupt dictatorship.
And the whole people became poor. And most importantly, they promise him nothing. At all. They even stopped promising him. They got completely insolent. And ahead is dull hopelessness. Utility bills will rise, prices will rise, even if salaries and pensions grow, they will not catch up with them. Inflation is crazy. The devaluation of the hryvnia is ongoing. Well, some kind of stupid hopelessness. And then they come.
After all, there is the inertia of these revolutions. Let's turn the page again, everything will be great again. And hope will appear. There will be no money, but there will be hope.
I think that all this writing by Ukrainian experts, that they will squabble with each other - no! When there is a prize ahead, no, they won’t squabble.
I started with how Petya and Misha had a fight. But what else follows from this? After all, what should Petya have done when he kicked Misha out? He should have unleashed the dog on him. What do we see? - The dog is licking boots. That means one of two things. Either he didn’t let her down, or the dog refused to bite.
Valentin Filippov: Well, it's more like it.
Alexander Kazakov: I watched a video today of how they went through a funny, single cordon, SBU officers hand in hand with the border guards. Like a knife through butter. They resisted so that they would not be reprimanded later.
Well, Lutsenko made a statement - to put everyone in prison. Well, of course, not only his condition, but also his life depends on Poroshenko. There is nowhere to go, they are in one bundle. But the rest are silent. Everyone is silent.
Valentin Filippov: That is, we can expect that many in Kyiv will simply take the oath to their new comrades?
Alexander Kazakov: I do not exclude this for one simple reason. The entire Ukrainian pie is divided. And now it can only be redone. There is no longer a chance to tear off a piece. Poroshenko may be a bad president, but he is a good businessman. If he grabs a piece, he won’t give it up.
And Akhmetov is also not a fool. And this is one and a half oligarchs who received all of Ukraine. So the desire to redistribute everything, to throw it into a state of chaos, and then begin to build anew...
So let's forget about the personal enmity between the two hot-blooded Ukrainian Caucasians. Avakov and Saakashvili. Why should Avakov interfere in this fight now? He represents the “Popular Front”, the “Popular Front” is zero. They have a large faction now, but this is the last time. No longer.
Valentin Filippov: Avakov is considered a person who has enough physical strength. Military, volunteers, cops.
Alexander Kazakov: In fact, if Poroshenko tomorrow gives the order to arrest everyone, it depends only on Avakov whether he will carry out the order or not. Moreover, if he does not carry out the order, Poroshenko will not tell anyone that he gave the order. Because this is the end. For him this is political death. And now Avakov has the key.
At the same time, I, not based on logic, but based on the information that is on the other side, know that normal cops who work “on the ground” will not interfere. And today’s behavior of border guards and SBU officers is proof of this. They will go away. They will go to their areas, lock themselves in there, barricade themselves. The army is the same. Not the army that we now have on the front line, but the army that sits there in the barracks.
Valentin Filippov: And the one on the front line?
Alexander Kazakov: Which will sit in its place on the front line.
Valentin Filippov: Aren’t they offended that they are sitting here at your gunpoint, while there, in Kyiv, they are eating food that they don’t have enough of?
Alexander Kazakov: This situation has been analyzed too many times. Based on the intelligence data that we have, many of our field commanders regularly communicate with the other side. Most likely, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will remain in its place. But as for the punitive battalions, this is what I was leading to. What if the cops go to their stations, if the army remains in its barracks, then the only power resource in the country is the punitive battalions.
And now attention, question. Who do they report to? Poroshenko does not have them, but Avakov has almost all of them. It will not be difficult for him to come to an agreement with those who behave more or less independently.
That is, now, in fact, the fate of power in Ukraine is in the hands of Avakov. He always had one problem. He doesn't shake hands in the West. Why? Don't know. But, as it happens, the West does not perceive it. But, to the left of Saakashvili there is a woman with a braid, everything is fine with her with the West. Therefore, any combination is possible.
And it is even possible that when it starts moving to Kiev, that plane, which, in my opinion, is not even jammed, in a special hangar in Boryspil, will fly away with the family, quietly, so as not to lead to sin. New elections will be called, and so on. Maybe it's real.
The biggest political crisis of the Maidan government that has occurred in all this time has begun. This is clear, because today, most importantly, the presidential vertical has been discredited.
Poroshenko, in fact, has a terrible choice. He can either start shooting; he is already being compared in the Ukrainian media to Yanukovych. Now, Yanukovych also refused to shoot, and where is he now? That is, either he must shoot for real, or fly away.
Valentin Filippov: OK then. Today, my friend Semyon Uralov wrote an interesting phrase about the fact that whoever is interested in Saakashvili is a Ukrainian, whoever is interested in the elections in Russia is a Russian, and Russians drink in honor of Moscow’s birthday. I would like, like a Russian Russian...
Alexander Kazakov: Today is still tanker’s day.
Valentin Filippov: Yes, as a Russian person, I would like to congratulate Russian people on Tankman Day and on the City Day of Moscow, our golden-domed capital.
Alexander Kazakov: I also congratulate you on Capital Day. Here in Donetsk, Tankman's Day is a more significant holiday, because we know what role tankers played in our victorious campaigns, and we know what role they will have to play again. That’s why everyone loves tankers here. Our Tankman’s Day is much more important than Aviation Day, because in our country...
Valentin Filippov: no aviation : )
Alexander Kazakov: We have tanks, and all of our aviation was stationed on Lenin Square in the amount of one jet aircraft. But, the truth is, it is reactive, it exists and it works.
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