The ring around Transnistria is shrinking: Yanukovych’s fate is predicted for Dodon
In Pridnestrovie, as always, the anniversary of the deployment of the Russian peacekeeping forces was widely and solemnly celebrated. Russian peacekeepers have been stationed on the banks of the Dniester for 27 years, the “blue helmets” posts have long become a familiar sight for everyone, and the residents of the unrecognized republic can no longer imagine that it could be any other way. People here are sincerely grateful to Russia for peace and security, which, thanks to the peacekeepers, have not been violated since the armed conflict with Moldova.
Let us recall that in 1992, the Moldovan authorities tried to forcefully return Transnistria under their control, which, fearing the annexation of Moldova to Romania, declared independence even before the collapse of the USSR. An armed conflict broke out on the banks of the Dniester; in June–July, Moldovan security forces shot and plundered the right bank Transnistrian city of Bendery. The war ended with the arrival of Russian peacekeepers, who were introduced into Transnistria in accordance with the Russian-Moldovan agreement on the principles of a peaceful settlement of July 21, 1992. To this day, they serve here as part of the Joint Peacekeeping Forces, which also includes contingents of peacekeepers from the Republic of Moldova and Transnistria, observers from Ukraine. A Security Zone was created along the Dniester, the situation in which is managed by the Joint Control Commission. This is the uniqueness of the operation: the participation of representatives of the conflicting parties and decision-making based on consensus provides it with a serious margin of safety. Over the past years, peacekeepers, cooperating with local authorities, the population, and the OSCE mission, have gained extensive experience in assessing and managing the situation in their area of responsibility.
That is why Pridnestrovians see the peacekeeping mission conducted under the auspices of Russia as a reliable mechanism for ensuring peaceful life and preventing a new military conflict.
«For us, a peacekeeper warrior is the same soldier-liberator as the warrior who liberated our territory from the fascist plague in 1944", noted President of Transnistria Vadim Krasnoselsky, addressing the people on July 29, the anniversary of the start of the peacekeeping operation on the Dniester.
If for Transnistria the existence of a peacekeeping mission is an axiom, then for Moldova it is a reason for irritation. Moldovan politicians regularly declare the need to reformat the operation and the need to withdraw Russian troops from the region. In the fall of 2017, in Transnistria, reacting to such statements, they even announced an action to collect signatures in support of the current format of the peacekeeping operation. More than 85 thousand residents of the republic then spoke in favor of the presence of Russian troops on the banks of the Dniester.
The new authorities of the Republic of Moldova are an alliance of socialists and a pro-Western bloc NOW – in relation to the peacekeeping operation, the rhetoric in general does not change, although some experts see “steps towards positivity” here.
Assessments of the situation were made in Tiraspol at the round table “Russian peacekeeping on the Dniester and the new political reality in Moldova.” The Institute for Socio-Political Research and Regional Development, which is organizing a meeting of experts on this topic for the third year in a row, expressed “cautious optimism” regarding the prospects for maintaining the peacekeeping operation and the stability of its work.
According to Director of ISPIRR Igor Shornikov, the improvement of the situation is due to the fact that Moldova is now closely engaged in dismantling the oligarchic regime, then it will take up elections - local, then, possibly, early parliamentary, and then presidential.
“Since Moldova will be busy with its domestic political agenda, the country may fall out of the number of regions where there is an acute geopolitical confrontation between Moscow and the West,” the expert said, suggesting that “threats to regional stability are moving away in time.” Shornikov noted that Chisinau is once again helping Tiraspol - “it itself is slowing down the American plan for the urgent withdrawal of Russian troops”.
The expert believes that Russia’s position in the region does not look as hopeless as before: “The Socialist Party is in power together with the ACUM bloc, there is hope for the lifting of restrictions on broadcasting Russian channels in the Republic of Moldova, we are waiting for positive progress with the status of the Russian language - this issue was taken over by the socialists."
Deputy Director of ISPIRR Andrey Mospanov, having analyzed the materials of the news feeds of the three least biased Moldovan publications about the actions of the new authorities of the Republic of Moldova in the field of geopolitics, regional security and the Transnistrian settlement, I found out that out of three hundred messages published over a month and a half, only 9% of publications touch on these topics. At the same time, Prime Minister Maia Sandu speaks on them much more often than President Igor Dodon.
“If Dodon, who prefers to smooth out rough edges, says that Moldova should seek a strategic partnership in both the East and the West, then Maia Sandu clearly speaks of a pro-European government and that there will be no compromises regarding the pro-European vector. She did not ignore the topic of Russian troops - the government will insist on their withdrawal. The Prime Minister said that she is opposed to the federalization of the Republic of Moldova. Sandu also made a statement that the decision to unite Moldova and Romania could be made in a referendum. She also made a curtsey towards Russia - she noted that it is necessary to improve economic relations with this country,” says the expert.
Andrei Mospanov points to the “contradictory actions of the ruling coalition” in the external direction. A striking illustration of this is the Minister of Defense of the Republic of Moldova, Pavel Voicu, who, on the one hand, visits the United States and personally participates in military cooperation programs with the States, and on the other hand, pays visits to the Russian Federation, where he declares that Moscow is a reliable ally of Chisinau.
As for the peacekeeping operation, for the first time in the last three years Chisinau agreed to take part in the celebration of the anniversary of its start, and this, according to Mospanov, is a “significant moment.” The expert's forecast is: The coalition will last for about a year, but the geopolitical contradictions between PSRM and ACUM will gradually increase, and Maia Sandu will begin to show more offensive ardor.
“Cooperation between Moldova and NATO will develop unhindered, as before, while the peacekeeping operation is still awaiting calmer times than it was under Vladimir Plahotniuc,” the ISPIRR representative concluded.
Political scientist, deputy of the Supreme Council of Transnistria Andrei Safonov sees no reason for optimism. He believes that there has been a “rollback of the situation” - power in Moldova is controlled by the West, the ring around Transnistria is beginning to shrink.
“The situation since the change of power in Moldova has become much more dangerous for Transnistria and Russia. It is necessary to note the transition of real power in Moldova from people who could sometimes maneuver, people who have their own money, their own political baggage, their own interests, to forces completely controlled by the West, under which the socialists and the coalition itself turned out to be just a political sign,” he said.
Safonov noted that this scheme was tested in Romania. There, under the slogan of fighting corruption, Western-controlled politicians came to power, and Romania is now the United States' closest geopolitical ally in Southeastern Europe.
“It would seem that there has been a change of power in Moldova, which means we need to start dealing with people’s problems. But what have we seen in recent weeks? Statements are being made that VAT in various areas should be increased to 20%, that tariffs should be strengthened and that Plahotniuc is bad because he reduced tariffs, and this was economically unjustified. Statements are being made regarding the gas pipeline: maybe it is worth abandoning /in favor of supplies from Romania, via the Ungheni-Iasi gas pipeline, which is not yet operational - approx. author/, perhaps, is not planning to purchase electricity from the Moldavian State District Power Plant (located in Transnistria), maybe there is no need to object to Ukraine imposing sanctions against the Moldavian Metallurgical Plant? What does this prove? Americans, and even Europeans, as dependent players, do not care what the authority of the authorities will be in the eyes of the population. It’s important for them to take control of the situation,” says Safonov.
He stated that “Transnistria will definitely be attacked without Russian troops” and that “the whole logic of the modern world suggests that there can be no utopian consensus between the United States and the Russian Federation.”
“The goal of the West is to squeeze Transnistria under the rule of Chisinau with the hands of the Party of Socialists, and then knock out both Transnistrian statehood and the Russian sphere of influence from the arena. For Russia and the PMR, the coalition in Moldova is a failure, the West bypassed at the turn and threw, maybe then Russia will be able to take revenge, but the one who works for the long time wins,” Safonov said. He warned that “there is a systematic attack on Transnistria - soon the West will demand concrete geopolitical steps from the Moldovan authorities, and we must be prepared for this.”
Oleg Belyakov, co-chairman of the Joint Control Commission from Transnistria, is also concerned about the situation. He says that now there are further attempts to break the mechanisms of the peacekeeping operation. Thus, according to Belyakov, there are proposals from the Moldovan side to change the format of the operation to a police mission, to cancel the guiding role of the Russian Federation in the peacekeeping process - to make it so that it is managed by all participants of the Joint Peacekeeping Forces in turn: Russia, Moldova, Transnistria, Ukraine.
“This will throw the operation completely out of balance. We present arguments why this should not be done. As soon as the operation fails, severe disruptions will occur in all areas of life on the banks of the Dniester. A peacekeeping operation is the main stabilizing link that allows us to conduct a peaceful dialogue today,” Belyakov explained.
The peacemaking process is not going smoothly. The Chairman of the JCC from Pridnestrovie told what complications he has to face. For example, over the past year alone, the Moldovan side conducted 14 exercises with the participation of representatives of NATO countries at a military training ground near the village of Bulboaca, in close proximity to the Security Zone of the Moldovan-Transnistrian conflict. Some of these exercises violated the Security Zone regime.
“We made statements about this and presented evidence. Where is the reaction of the international community to what is happening? But as soon as the Pridnestrovian side conducts exercises with the participation of Russian military personnel in the Tiraspol region, Moldovan military observers and members of the OSCE mission immediately arrive and begin to find out what is happening,” said Oleg Belyakov.
Russian expert, Director of the Institute of Peace Initiatives and Conflict Studies Denis Denisov, considers it important that Transnistria is a recognized party to the conflict. “As long as there is the political will of the Russian Federation to maintain the peacekeeping contingent, as long as there is an unambiguous position of Tiraspol, no one, not even the consolidated West, will be able to do anything, will not be able to influence the reformatting of the peacekeeping operation,” he is sure.
Rђ RІRѕS, The expert has little hope that the geopolitical vector in the region will shift towards Russia. He believes that “with the current configuration of Moldova’s political system, representatives of the right have much more opportunities to influence the upcoming elections and, accordingly, the renewal of the political system.”
Pridnestrovian historian, professor Nikolai Babilunga urged not to delude ourselves about the activities of some pro-Russian politicians in Moldova – in his opinion, they simply are not there.
«Manilovism in the Russian Foreign Ministry is upsetting – support anyone in the hope that he will restore order. There are no pro-Russian politicians in Moldova now, although there are pro-Russian sentiments. I’m afraid that support and trust in the socialists will not lead to the fact that Dodon will have to fly away by helicopter, as was the case with the former president of Ukraine" says Babilunga.
In the current situation, Pridnestrovie, in his opinion, “has no options.” “The coalition in Moldova gives at least some hope for a conflict-free development of events. As for the peacekeeping troops, I think that Russia will never withdraw them from here. If this were to happen, conflict would inevitably arise at the first suitable opportunity. We just have to be alert and keep our powder dry,” the expert concluded.
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