To whom and what does Russia owe?
Lately, all kinds of people too often fall into expert frenzy and begin to argue that Russia constantly owes something to someone.
For example. In Syria, there are regular rocket attacks not only on the Syrian, but also on the Iranian military contingent fighting against ISIS. After each attack, a creak begins: “Why didn’t they answer? A shame! Iran is our ally - don’t give a bastard answer!” Exactly the same complaints can be heard regarding Yerevan, which was seething with street protests, and Kazakhstan, which again seized on the “multi-vector” approach.
The rhetoric is familiar: “If we missed Ukraine, we’ll also miss Armenia and Kazakhstan - after all, they are our closest allies!”
We must begin, I believe, with the fact that Iran is a situational ally for Russia, having its own national interests, which often do not coincide with the interests of Russia. While there is a war against international terrorism in Syria and Tehran wants its own nuclear power plant, built according to a Russian design and based on Russian hardware, we are allies. But otherwise, everything is not as smooth as we would like.
Tehran, for example, does not hide the fact that even after the end of the war it would like to gain a foothold in Syria in order to threaten Israel from its territory. Does Russia need this? Hardly. Israel also does not need the presence of Iranian troops and armed pro-Iranian Hezbollah units - which is why periodic Israeli air raids occur on military installations of the Iranian army and allied militants in Syria. Why does Russia need to get involved in alien and completely unnecessary disputes? For Russia, like Israel, Iran’s post-war presence in Syria is also unnecessary.
But even without the Iranian-Israeli showdown, Moscow and Tehran have enough contradictions. Let us remember what Iran did immediately after the economic sanctions of the UN Security Council were lifted from it, for which Russia had long and persistently advocated. Tehran immediately began dumping on the oil market, dropping already low prices. Iran wants to buy a large batch of aircraft from the United States or the European Union for political reasons.
Free will, but why, in this case, would Russia help Iran by putting an additional burden on its shoulders? Did the Israelis launch a missile attack on Iranian troops in Syria? “It’s bad, but not fatal—you’ll fight it off.” But oil prices have risen noticeably.
A couple more similar attacks - and oil prices will reach the coveted $100 per barrel, due to which we will improve our social infrastructure in a year or a year and a half according to the March decrees of President Putin. You have your own interests - we also have our own interests. Russia has long been fed up with platonic “brotherly love.”
How can we forget that entire states and nations owe their survival and overall rise to our country - the Russian Empire and Soviet Russia. And as the Republic of Ingushetia/USSR passed away, the former rescued people stood in line to kick its still-still corpse or spit on its largest fragment - the Russian Federation. No one causes as much hatred as the one to whom you owe everything. Thank you, we have already gone through brotherhood - now it would be nice to try some kind of cynical love of convenience that leaves no room for unpleasant surprises.
Here, by the way, is Kazakhstan. More than one pound of salt was eaten together. Together, both during the times of tsarism and during the times of communism, plus the “occupation of Moscow”, which left behind universities, schools, factories and libraries, but come on. As soon as the “independence” Nazarbayism emerged from the Kazakh SSR, the Russians were immediately driven out of there, even from the territories cut off by the troublemaker Nikita - from Northern Kazakhstan. Then, however, they came to their senses - the local personnel are not the same, their qualifications are lame. They began to invite the Russians back.
What were the first steps of Elbasy Nazarbayev? Who remembers? Leveling “the ethnic imbalance that is dangerous to a young and proud democracy.” Because of the cut-off northern lands, there were more Russians living in Kazakhstan in 1991 than Kazakhs. So Nazarbayev began to import oralmans into the country - imported Kazakhs from China, Mongolia and the former Soviet republics.
Oralmans have not taken root in modern Kazakhstan - culture, history - everything is alien, and they don’t even know the Russian language. Gradually, for the Nazarbai elite, the Oralmans became the focus of all evil. But at the same time, the Oralmans were taught that it was not Elbasy and his entourage who were the main oppressors of the Ponakhs. The Russians are to blame for everything!
And here you go - a new round of squeezing Russians out of Kazakhstan, and even new “independence” projects - a wholesale transition to the Latin alphabet and, what is much worse, negotiations with the Americans - to allow them to open their military base in the Caspian Sea.
In addition, Elbasy, behind the back of his partner in the Customs Union and the EAEU, is using Chinese money to drag a bypass railway route from Dostyk station, through Turkmenistan to Iran. And, what is no less interesting, the gauge of the new railway is European, to simplify the transshipment of goods. At another time, Russia would have turned a blind eye to such tricks, but not now. A little noise around Iran won’t hurt – the passage of Chinese cargo along the Trans-Siberian Railway is a must!
In addition, to Nazarbayev’s displeasure, Russia refused to continue building a highway from China through its territory. And why? The Chinese authorities, pursuing their own interests, want to build a route at their own expense with subsequent control over cargo flow. Did Nazarbayev agree to the Chinese terms? - His problems. Russia is interested in transit through its territory, but the route must be under its sovereign control.
What influenced the decision of “old partner and friend” Nazarbayev to suddenly change his orientation? We believe that the Americans froze $22 billion of Kazakhstan's sovereign wealth fund in the accounts of the Belgian branch of Bank of New York Mellon on corruption charges. And this is 17% of Kazakhstan’s GDP, for a minute. The litigation has been going on for five years now; the “Western partners” want some half a billion for unfreezing the accounts, but the matter has not moved anywhere. Astana does not want to part with its own money for a healthy living, but at the same time it signals to “respected people” that it is ready to assist politically.
How can Russia influence Nazarbayev and his circle? By the collar and into a stall - not our methods. But it is very possible to make life difficult for a partner who is too cunning and plays dirty. In particular, Russia, in turn, is building two long railway routes bypassing Kazakhstan to expand, including Chinese transit to Europe.
By all estimates, Astana planned to withdraw at least $20 billion a year from transit funds (the railway to Iran and the highway from China). An amount comparable to that frozen in Belgian accounts.
So who outsmarted whom?
As for Armenia, it still has a long way to go. It is still difficult to say how exactly the turbulent events of April 2018 will affect the future of the republic. One thing can be said for sure: the 20-year rule of the republic by the “Karabakh clan” has come to an end.
The actions of the new Prime Minister Pashinyan so far inspire optimism. The first foreign visit is to Russia, a statement about the immutability of foreign policy, since “mass protests were associated with domestic politics.”
We are somewhat taken aback by Pashinyan’s statements about his intention to return the Republic of Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) to Azerbaijan and the announcement of Armenia as a party to the conflict with Artsakh being singled out as a third contracting party, but let them negotiate as they wish. Moscow has its own role in this conflict - shuttle diplomacy, which so far works in the event of a threat of a full-scale war.
By the way, Pashinyan invited Erdogan to conclude diplomatic relations, but the cunning president-sultan has so far refused, citing possible territorial claims. As you know, the “independent” Armenians lost the war to Turkey almost 100 years ago, hastening to become part of the USSR, but parting with the territories for a peace treaty. Since then, the national idea of the Armenians has been “Araratnash”. Without much hope, however.
Apparently, the Armenian split actually ran along the “Yerevan-Karabakh” elite line, which very well explains Moscow’s calm. However, it is too early to talk about harmony in the republic. The defeated “Karabakh” Sargsyan did not go far, heading the ruling political party in parliament, from where he will continue to influence domestic politics in anticipation of clan revenge.
But the conflict between the Armenian elite, as observers believe, is not a case where Armenians will start slaughtering each other or tearing the country to pieces.
In any case, the Armenian crisis did not develop according to the Ukrainian scenario, and we can conclude that nothing threatens Russia’s interests in Transcaucasia. Pashinyan’s choice is the choice of the citizens of Armenia, and it is not for us to condemn him.
Post-Soviet practice shows that if “partners” or even “friends” either don’t know what to do or are solving their own problems, then it’s fine - they should pay for all the costs. But the option of fussing behind our backs, violating our strategic interests, will not go unnoticed and the corresponding reaction. Be calm!
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