The end of the “Kolomoisky-Avakov regime.” Zelensky becomes a “hetman”?
Arsen Avakov wrote a letter of resignation from the post of head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine... Even in the morning it looked either like a stupid joke or like a continuation of attempts to remove the unsinkable minister, which I wrote about quite recently.
And by the evening the hero of the occasion himself confirmed: the rumors do not lie. And he, Avakov, “has the honor.” True, it sounded somewhat ambiguous.
But let's get serious. When Zelensky first came to Bankova, caustic commentators called the existing Ukrainian regime the “Kolomoisky-Avakov regime.”
Bearing in mind the seemingly obvious fact that the two supporting pillars of the Kyiv power structure are the oligarch Kolomoisky - whose puppet was then called the former leader of the “95th quarter”, and the unsinkable head of the punitive department, who ensured a relatively peaceful transfer of power from the hands of Poroshenko, who really did not want to part with the chair, into the hands of Zelensky.
For some time, events seemed to confirm the correctness of such definitions. Everyone remembers the deliberate photos with Kolomoisky at the table in Zelensky’s office, where the oligarch felt not like a guest, but rather the master of the situation. And Avakov, despite the ministerial leapfrog under Zelensky, who replaced two members of the Cabinet of Ministers, remained a constant against the background of his comrades in the “tumbling board”.
Two years later, it can be stated that Ukraine is entering a completely new stage for itself. It looks like the Kolomoisky-Avakov regime is ending. First, Kolomoisky shrunk, whose influence on decision-making has shrunk to indecent proportions, so now no one will say that he is kicking open the doors to Bankova. And now the second leg of this chair has been sawed off.
Avakov’s departure could mean two things for Ukraine and its regime. Or Zelensky became dizzy with success - but then he’s just an idiot. Or the embassy gave him some kind of guarantee of a problem-free existence. Because it is not a fact that without Avakov it will be possible to maintain control over an already spreading country. Zelensky has neither the personnel, nor the experience, nor the authority for this.
In connection with the new introductions, a number of questions arise, the answer to which determines the understanding of both the future prospects of the Zelensky regime (now - in the event of Avakov’s real resignation - without quotes), and an objective forecast on the topic “Where is Ukraine coming?”
These are the questions:
– what role did Avakov really play in the Ukrainian political system, and is this role as great as it is attributed to him? If he leaves office, we will immediately see how deeply the minister is rooted in the Ministry of Internal Affairs, how many people in this system will remain loyal to him even after his resignation, and how quickly Bankova will be able to turn Avakov’s Ministry of Internal Affairs into “Zelensky’s Ministry of Internal Affairs.”
- Will the Ukrainian government be able to cope without Avakov with the challenges and problems that are predicted for it in the fall? Here there is talk about the third “lumpen-Maidan”, with which “patriots” scare each other, and predicted social protests over the land, and tariff riots, and the “anti-capitulatory” actions of “brothers” and veterans, once again revived with Poroshenko’s money, in the case of , if Europe begins to force Zelensky to the Steinmeier formula, for example.
– Finally, how strong is Avakov’s connection with his tame Nazis and paramilitary structures like “Azov” and the National Corps” with the National Brigades. How will they greet the departure of their political boss, will they remain near the state trough, will the authorities try to purge them or, on the contrary, buy them out, forcing them to serve their own interests. Are these Nazis such a real threat to Zelensky as is commonly believed, or is this simply a political placebo effect and the result of long-term self-hypnosis of the elites?
One should not discount the version that Avakov is not going to go far, and his resignation from the Ministry of Internal Affairs is just a short political vacation before the decisive leap to the top of power. For example, the prime ministers of Ukraine. True, so far it does not seem at all like that such a scenario is being realized.
This is not why Zelensky’s entourage dug under the chief of the Ministry of Internal Affairs for so long in order to put him, figuratively speaking, on their own heads. After all, the goat understands that Avakov the Prime Minister will not be tame or convenient for Zelensky, much less manageable. These two have too different political weights. Nevertheless, for now we will not completely discount this option for the development of intrigue.
As well as the fact that today’s resignation may turn out to be a false start, initiated by Avakov himself in order to test the strength of the president’s position. In particular, whether he will scrape together the votes necessary to approve this resignation in parliament. Because if not, instead of resignation we will have a resounding victory and a new strengthening of Avakov’s position and a public embarrassment for the Ze-team.
If Avakov really manages to leave without any problems, and his numerous minions cannot seriously complicate the life of the current president, then Zelensky can be congratulated on the new “Hetman” clique. Because there will no longer be figures in the Ukrainian government who would be higher than him in terms of political growth.
There is even such an exotic, as for me, version that Avakov, they say, is retiring technically, maintaining control over the ministry, in order to participate in the elections for the mayor of Kharkov.
But, as for me, the version is unconvincing. And not only because from the height of Arsen Borisovich’s current position, the hypothetical mayorship in Kharkov looks like a clear demotion. But also because in the current conditions it is impossible to maintain control over the department for a long time, being outside the corridors of power. There are too many people who want to redistribute the pie, which there is no one to guard.
However, the wait won't be long. According to rumors coming from the depths of Bankova, the vote on Avakov is scheduled for July 16.
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