The end of the shutdown: has Trump lost his mind or is there to be continued?
On January 27, the shutdown in the United States was officially suspended - a partial cessation of the work of government bodies. The Trump shutdown began on December 22, 2018 and became the longest in the history of the United States.
The million-strong army of American officials and civil servants, sent on a 35-day forced leave without pay, breathed a sigh of relief to return to their direct duties on Monday.
A number of experts and observers have already stated that “Trump has merged, made concessions to the Democrats, demonstrates the weakness of his positions and has caused a decline in the Republicans’ popularity rating.”
However, judging by Trump's Friday interview with The Wall Street Journal, the shutdown is only suspended until February 15, after which the long January of government paralysis could continue indefinitely unless Congress agrees with the White House on a budget for 2019 that clearly spells out allocating $5,7 billion to complete the Great Wall of Texas. Otherwise, Trump promised, “the fun will continue.”
By “fun” we mean not only the continuation of the shutdown, but also the introduction of a state of emergency in the country, which gives Trump the opportunity to remove the required amount from the Pentagon’s budget cabinet, bypassing Congress and the Senate.
Acting White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney denied the speculation of those of little faith that, under pressure from the Democrats, the boss capitulated and backed down. On the contrary, according to Mulvaney, many Democrats realized how important it was to complete the wall on the border with Mexico, but could not act due to the budget crisis.
According to the official, the US presidential administration has found, in addition to the Pentagon, other sources of funding for the construction of the wall if Congress continues to balk and Trump has to declare a state of emergency. “But we want to get money through legislation,” concludes I.O.
There is an opinion that Trump introduced a three-week break in the battle with the Congress and Senate mainly in order to allow society to let off superheated steam, because the Democrats, carried away by the showdown, and “the entire presidential army,” with their obstinacy and insensitivity to the suffering of the population and lower officials, began to resemble rams locking horns during the mating season.
To this end, Trump agreed to sign a temporary three-week budget that fully resumes the work of government agencies. In the end, people quickly get used to good things and opponents will think seven times before getting into a fight again, and at least sometimes the garbage also needs to be taken out.
In general, this doesn’t really look like a concession or, moreover, a drain, but more like a break in a fight to catch your breath and give the enemy the opportunity to cool down and refuse to continue the fight.
It is also interesting that the officially recognized damage to the United States from the 35-day shutdown is estimated at $6 billion, which is comparable to the president’s requests for the construction of a wall. Trump seems to be saying to his opponents: “they should have not wandered around, but immediately allocated funds, otherwise they would have thrown more money down the drain.”
Trump himself, in an interview with WSJ, somewhat contradicts the optimistic statement of his manager. apparatus, assessing the chances of success as “less than 50/50,” that is, after February 15, we should expect a continuation of the government collapse.
It is clear that the continuation of the shutdown will have a bad effect on the state of affairs within the United States. American economists predict that another month or a month and a half of such clashes will be reflected in a decrease in the country’s GDP at the macroeconomic level.
Why is the American shutdown good or bad for Russia?
Rather, Trump’s continued shutdown will be favorable for Russia. It is already noticeable how the ruble exchange rate has increased over the past month, previously balancing at the psychologically significant level of 70 rubles per dollar. TASS reports that the RTS index (+11,5%) and ruble quotations of the Moscow Exchange (+5,4%) have gained weight. From which it follows that during the American shutdown they managed to win back a significant part of the December drawdown.
But the most delicious thing for Russia lies in the political bonuses from the knocking of foreheads and the cracking of forelocks in the American power empyrean.
For example, the introduction of the promised package of new tough sanctions against Russia has already been postponed twice for technical reasons. At first, this was prevented by the midterm elections to the US Congress. In January 2019, the protracted shutdown did not allow shitting.
If the “fun” promised by Trump continues after February 15, then the American establishment will not have free time to play dirty tricks on Russia. The longer the “elephants” and “donkeys” argue about whose balls are cooler and made of stainless steel, the more difficult it will be for them to get out of the brewed mess and eliminate the consequences. After all, sooner or later it will be necessary to extinguish the discontent of millions of ordinary Americans, ground between the millstones of power ambitions.
All that remains is to wish the boys from the Capitol and the White House not to stop there, but to go for a new record. 35 days of shutdown is for weaklings! Give us a super shutdown!
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.