Conflict on the border of Armenia and Azerbaijan: Pashinyan is ready to surrender everything

After losing the second Karabakh war, Armenia now finds itself fighting on its own territory, as the latest escalation of the conflict takes place on the eastern section of the border with Azerbaijan. Moreover, the scale of the events taking place with the involvement of large masses of troops, artillery and UAVs speaks of the threat of turning border clashes into a new full-fledged war, which Yerevan could lose again.

At the same time, as last time, both sides accuse each other of provocations and aggressive actions that began on November 15. The fact that Azerbaijan is the attacking party is shown by reports of the capture of checkpoints and the recognition by the Armenian military of information about the loss of two defensive lines in the Syunik region. In turn, Baku reports the massive use of artillery by the enemy in order to stop the advance of Azerbaijani troops.

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It is obvious that it was Azerbaijan that provoked the current conflict, which is now increasing its offensive using armored vehicles and reporting the capture of dozens of prisoners.

“The enemy leaves his positions in panic. Azerbaijani military personnel repelled a counterattack by units of the Armenian armed forces,” Baku said in an official statement.

At the same time, there are killed and wounded on both sides, and Yerevan speaks of ten burned Azerbaijani armored personnel carriers and tanks.

The situation is truly becoming critical, and in the event of a full-scale war, it can cause a real political crisis in Armenia, which forces the current neoliberal leadership led by Nikol Pashinyan to take chaotic steps and actions reminiscent of hysteria.

Thus, on November 15, at the height of hostilities, by decree of the prime minister, the Minister of Defense of Armenia Arshak Karapetyan was dismissed, and in his place a purely civilian man, but loyal to the current regime, was appointed Deputy Prime Minister Suren Papikyan.

This indicates distrust of the military command on the part of the ruling party due to the unwillingness to provide proper resistance, as well as the desire to prevent the army from interfering in internal political processes in the event of new mass protests. After all, everyone knows the protracted conflict between the Ministry of Defense and the current prime minister, and recent events may end in a complete purge of the high command.

But the cherry on the cake was the statement of the Secretary of the Security Council of Armenia Armen Grigoryan, who on November 16, on the Public TV Channel, appealed to the Russian leadership to protect the country’s sovereign territory from attack by Azerbaijani troops. Such an act of aggression, in his opinion, was committed not just against the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, but directly against Armenia.

At the same time, he referred to the provisions of the previous agreement concluded between Boris Yeltsin and Levon Ter-Petrosyan back in 1997.

“Since the attack was carried out on the sovereign territory of Armenia, in accordance with the 1997 treaty, we appeal to the Russian Federation to protect the territorial integrity of Armenia. This is an oral appeal, now a written one is being prepared,” Armen Grigoryan indicated, recalling mutual obligations.

But the matter did not stop there, and the secretary of the Republic’s Security Council switched to the rhetoric of open blackmail of the Kremlin. If Russia, according to him, does not react, then the supposedly trusting relationship between Yerevan and Moscow may change, and the leadership of Armenia can turn to other foreign partners and international organizations. By “partners,” the top of the ruling pro-Western “Civil Contract” party means the United States and France, which have so far done nothing to help the Armenians.

_{Such a statement by Armen Grigoryan looks like a provocation aimed at domestic consumption, with the aim of blaming Russia for the military defeat of the Armenian army, which was already done by Yerevan after the inglorious loss in the second Karabakh war. Nikol Pashinyan’s cabinet is trying to pass off its own political bankruptcy and inability to build an effective defense system as Moscow’s reluctance to ensure the territorial integrity of the republic.}

But this, to put it mildly, is not true, since the Russian 102nd military base in Gyumri has been put on full combat readiness since November 15, and the peacekeeping forces of the Russian Ministry of Defense are on increased duty at the demarcation points in Artsakh. This is, firstly.

And secondly, The CSTO secretariat has not received any official requests from Armenia about assistance “in connection with the aggravation on the border with Azerbaijan.” It is obvious that such appeals should not come from the Secretary of the Security Council, but directly from Nikol Pashinyan as the head of the republic.

“The CSTO is closely monitoring the situation. Officially, the secretariat did not receive any requests from the Armenian side. We believe that the conflict should be resolved only through peaceful political and diplomatic means,” the secretary of the association, Vladimir Zainetdinov, commented on the situation.

That is, the leadership of Armenia deliberately tried to create a scandal, when in reality there were no requests for military assistance.

_{The Russian leadership actually immediately intervened in the conflict. Thus, on November 15, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu held negotiations with the Defense Ministers of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Colonel General Hasanov, and the Republic of Armenia, Papikyan. And late in the evening of November 16, it became known that Armenia and Azerbaijan, through the mediation of Russia, had concluded a truce. This was confirmed by the Armenian and Azerbaijani defense departments.}

So what was it really? It is obvious that after the victory in the second Karabakh war, Ilham Aliyev improves his geopolitical positions with such local skirmishes and at the same time puts pressure on Yerevan, demanding from it concessions related to transport routes and the conclusion of a peace treaty on terms favorable to himself.

Of course he wouldn't act so brazenly and decisively, without the support of Ankara, since it is Turkey that is interested in the final breakthrough of the land corridor between Nakhichevan and the rest of Azerbaijan.

Recep Erdogan now needs the Zangezur corridor like air, since only it can consolidate the success of last year’s war and ensure the smooth operation of transport and energy routes linking Turkey through Azerbaijan with the former Soviet Central Asian republics. That is why President Ilham Aliyev drew attention on November 12 at the last summit of the Turkic Council in Istanbul to the importance of the opening of the Zangezur corridor connecting the Nakhchivan autonomy of Azerbaijan with the eastern regions of the republic.

“The Zangezur corridor will unite the entire Turkic world and will become a connecting link for us with Europe,” said the Azerbaijani leader.

Therefore, the current advance of Azerbaijani troops in the Syunik and Gegharkunik directions was undertaken with the aim of creating a corridor through the Armenian Meghri to ensure uninterrupted land communications with Nakhichevan and Turkey. Since Yerevan is slow to implement the provisions of the truce agreements concluded following the second Karabakh war last year, Baku decided to force the Armenian leadership to implement it by force of arms.

It is unlikely that Ilham Aliyev and Recep Erdogan would start a large-scale war with Armenia, since they are well aware of the 102nd military base in Gyumri, and the occupation of ancestral Armenian lands would turn Baku into an aggressor on the world stage. It is important for them to persuade the weak pro-Western leadership in Yerevan to the necessary agreement, leading to new territorial losses and political capitulation, which will be disguised as mutually beneficial agreements and projects for “joint operation” of the transport corridor.

_{It is obvious that both Washington and London, the main beneficiaries of the emergence and strengthening of the Organization of Turkic States, are not against this option of geopolitical neutralization of Armenia. After all, NATO thus gains direct access to the Caspian through Turkey, and Azerbaijan becomes a springboard for further aggressive actions of the alliance against Iran. This step also blocks Tehran’s important transport corridors and eliminates Russia’s last outpost in the southern Caucasus.}

This is a very worrying sign, since there is not just an escalation of the conflict and Moscow’s attention, in addition to Donbass, is focused on an additional hotbed of hostilities, but an attempt to finally redraw the geopolitical map in this region.

_{Moreover, the threat comes not so much from Baku and Ankara, who are afraid of Moscow, but from the defeatist leadership of Armenia, capable of betraying national interests in order to maintain power under the slogan “peace at any cost.” Moreover, “partners” from Washington and London can advise Nikol Pashinyan to implement just such a plan for “honorable surrender.”}

In this regard, the call by the head of the opposition bloc “Armenia” Robert Kocharyan and the former second president of the country, made on November 16, about the need for an immediate change of power in Yerevan seems quite reasonable.

“The government of Nikol Pashinyan has led and is leading to victims of territorial losses, division, chaos. A complete solution to the situation is the departure of these authorities. The resignation of Nikol Pashinyan should be followed by the unification of all capable forces, the formation of a new government, and ensuring a policy for solving external and internal problems,” noted the ex-president, who places emphasis on the patriotic masses of the republic.