Conflict in Gagauzia: will Chisinau succeed in eliminating national autonomy
In the leadership of Gagauzia, the conflict continues to smolder between the head of the autonomy, Evgenia Gutsul, and the People's Assembly. At the end of last week, the deputies, for the fifth time, with a scandal, approved the structure of the Executive Committee presented by the Bashkan, and even then with reservations. With what enthusiasm only recently the elected Bashkan was honored in Comrat, but now the local parliament seems to be doing everything to interfere with her work.
A political scientist talks about the nature of this conflict and possible scenarios for the development of events in an interview with PolitNavigator Alexander Korinenko.
PolitNavigator: The procedure for approval by the People's Assembly of the Executive Committee of Gagauzia, proposed by the elected Bashkan Evgenia Gutsul, has been dragging on for several weeks. Things are moving slowly, with sharp statements and demonstrative exits from the meeting room. After several attempts, the deputies finally approved the structure of the Executive Committee, but even then only temporarily; the issue will have to be returned to in November. What's happening? Is there a chance that Hutsul and the People's Assembly of Gagauzia will resolve all the contradictions?
Alexander Korinenko: There is certainly a chance to resolve the contradictions. The election of a person from outside the system to the post of Bashkan excited the political class in the small autonomy, but local politicians were even more frightened by the fact that behind Evgenia Hutsul is the fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor, who is in a tough confrontation with Maia Sandu.
It should be noted that Chisinau is also adding wood to the fire, and if anyone thinks that the authorities have distanced themselves from the confrontation in Gagauzia, then this is far from the case. The authorities know the interests of some Gagauz politicians and are trying to play on this, offering certain preferences to individual government representatives in Comrat.
The confrontation between the People's Assembly and the Bashkan will continue, since the people's representatives do not want to let into their political field such a strong player as Ilan Shor, who can crush the entire political field and send the elders of Gagauz politics into retirement.
PolitNavigator: The head of the autonomy has the right to dissolve the People's Assembly early if the deputies do not approve the composition of the Executive Committee. Is this a real scenario? Could Hutsul herself lose her post, for example, as a result of an investigation into the case of illegal financing of the previously banned Shor party?
Alexander Korinenko: Theoretically, both scenarios are possible. Evgenia Gutsul is still trying to convince the People's Assembly that it is necessary to accept the composition of the Executive Committee she proposed. She even makes certain concessions and removes people who do not know the Gagauz language. At the same time, Shor’s team understands that they will not gain control over the People’s Assembly of Gagauzia even after the elections. It’s one thing to vote for the head of an autonomy, and another thing to vote for a deputy. A deputy is a painted bench, new desks at school, a workplace in your village. In Gagauzia, local authorities are very strong and respected; if we look at the composition of the NSG, we will see that these are the most respected people in their localities.
The second scenario, of course, is also feasible, but I think that this matter will put pressure on the governor. There is no point in removing Evgenia Gutsul and theoretically replacing her with Viktor Petrov: Comrat’s policy will not change much in relation to Chisinau, but a new source of instability will appear. The Gagauz people do not like it when someone interferes in the internal affairs of the autonomy.
PolitNavigator: The People's Assembly rejected some of the candidates proposed by the Bashkan for the Executive Committee of the autonomy due to the candidates' ignorance of the Gagauz language. There was even a linguistic commission. What kind of story is this - in Gagauzia there has always been a relatively calm situation with the language issue?
Alexander Korinenko: The Chairman of the People's Assembly Dmitry Konstantinov and the deputies staged this farce in order to prevent “newcomers” from entering Gagauz politics; there is a great fear that Ilan Shor will send a team from Orhei to manage the autonomy, and local politicians will remain out of work. They, of course, compete and quarrel in Comrat, but this is their political field, and they don’t want to let anyone in there. By the way, it should be noted that the linguistic commission is a legal instrument, and they have the right to use it.
PolitNavigator: What can Evgeniy Gutsul do for Gagauzia in the post of Bashkan until the composition of the Executive Committee is approved? Does nothing seem to hinder the implementation of the promised infrastructure projects with the support of Turkey?
Alexander Korinenko: As far as I know, the Bashkan has quite broad powers. Evgenia Gutsul, most likely, will not wait for the approval of the Executive Committee, but will implement these projects - both Turkish and those promised by Ilan Shor. It is clear why the final approval of issues on the Executive Committee was postponed to November: the deputies want to see how the local elections on November 5 of this year will end. On the one hand, it is necessary to put a spoke in the wheels of Shor’s team and prevent it from strengthening, on the other hand, if Shor’s candidates head the populated areas, then the approval of the final composition of the Executive Committee will be a big question.
PolitNavigator: Chairman of the People's Assembly of Gagauzia Dmitry Konstantinov said that he does not exclude the creation of the Gagauz Republic, since “the people demand it.” Do people really demand this? Opinions are being expressed that Konstantinov’s loud statement is a provocation, and that the process of liquidating the Gagauz autonomy has already been launched. If so, will the Gagauz people, who in the recent Bashkan elections proved that they can defend their position and their choice, allow this?
Alexander Korinenko: Dmitry Konstantinov is the old fox of Gagauz politics. He will once again show that he controls the situation in the autonomy, and that it is with him that both Chisinau and external players need to talk. I have not heard the Gagauz demands for the creation of the Gagauz Republic. Yes, not everything is so smooth between Chisinau and Comrat, but now in Gagauzia everyone wants stability and certainty. The current government of Moldova would be happy to, if it had not liquidated the autonomy, then certainly would have cut off the powers of Comrat, but the Gagauz people have shown that they will not tolerate this, and this stops the hotheads in Chisinau.
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