Strelkov’s counteroffensive will be on Mariupol, Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye
The retreat of Igor Strelkov's troops from Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkovka, Konstantinovka and even Seversk was met with fierce controversy. A brief analysis from the theater of military operations: why you shouldn’t rejoice prematurely, or, moreover, be despondent.
Militia or army?
It is quite difficult to accurately establish the position and situation inside the DPR. According to reports from sources in Konstantinovka and Druzhkovka, more than a month ago there was a turning point in the militia - it crossed the line from a popular formation to a regular army. Governing bodies were formed, and barracks conditions were introduced.
Also in Konstantinovka and other cities occupied by the militia, the units communicated poorly with each other. This situation existed, according to some sources, in Kramatorsk. The militia in Slavyansk was surrounded, which made it difficult to transport food, weapons, coordination and management. There was a shortage of medicines and special supplies.
That is why, from a military point of view, Strelkov’s withdrawal is understandable. Thus, he strives to establish clear coordination of actions between militia units, to concentrate forces, which will allow counterattacks and even an offensive. The formation of a regular contract army was announced almost immediately after the arrival of the “Slavic” detachments in Donetsk.
Counteroffensive attempts
Concentration of forces is the most important factor in an offensive. And this counteroffensive was organized a few days after the abandonment of Slavyansk. The army of the LPR, and possibly the DPR, acquired Grad systems, the action of which led to the destruction of the enemy group in Zelenopolye, as well as shelling in other places. The military formations destroyed by targeted fire from the Grad also indicate that in fact there were no such installations in Slavyansk itself. The range of the multiple launch rocket system is up to 50 km. Mount Karachun, which, by the way, means “black death” in Turkic, is located 7-10 km from Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. Consequently, the presence of Grad installations in the militia would completely end the existence of the military group at this strategic height.
The number of Ukrainian military killed in battles in the DPR, and especially in the LPR, is underestimated several times, to the point that the number may have been reduced by 10 times. Let us note that this is a common practice of information propaganda of US troops, and now Ukraine, where a clear directive has been given to increase the number of enemy military personnel killed by 10 times, and to underestimate their losses by 5-10 times.
Ukrainian military propaganda has gone ahead in this. On July 12, ATO press officer Seleznev said that more than “a thousand militants” had been killed in two days. Here, simple Ukrainian military professional sycophancy worked: since the authorities said to destroy one hundred militants for every military man, it means that they must be destroyed. At least on paper.
Myths for the week
Important military disinformation myths were disinformation about the possibility of blocking Lugansk and Donetsk, about mass casualties among the militia, the appearance of aviation among the militia, as well as the panicky statement of the Ukrainian media about the appearance of S-300 installations in the LPR.
The first disinformation was spread by the command of the so-called. ATO. Note that the forces were not enough even to block Slavyansk with a population of one hundred thousand people. Donetsk alone is a city of over a million, blocking which is unrealistic in this situation; taking it by storm is even more unrealistic if the political and military leadership of the DPR itself does not allow this. This also applies to Lugansk.
A thousand killed is a myth and disinformation with one purpose: to report to Poroshenko and at least somehow try to overshadow their own massive losses.
The third information about the Mi-24 helicopters and the Su-25 aircraft from the militia. It should be considered untested until the air machines are shown. The information is needed for moral influence on the enemy, and in general, what has already been stated has had a positive effect. According to our information, information about the Su-25 panicked many high-ranking officials in the ATO leadership and forced them to alert the air defense forces. There is only one possible way for the militia to seize a serviceable Su-25 aircraft - voluntary surrender by the pilot
This also applies to S-300 installations, which were found by Channel Five journalists in Lugansk. Not long ago they also found a Topol-M installation there. Let's say one thing: the presence of at least one S-300 installation will make it impossible for any enemy aircraft to fly over the DPR and LPR. The BUK installation, captured a week ago, turned out to be faulty.
Don't rejoice prematurely
It is not worthwhile to rejoice at the successful actions of the emerging armies of the LPR and DPR prematurely. Even the complete destruction of the fleet of attack aircraft and front-line bombers, as well as the Mi-24 and Mi-8 helicopters of Ukraine will not decide in favor of the Union of Republics. We can predict that NATO will supply Ukraine with new military equipment, and this will be done in this way.
To avoid publicity about direct military intervention, NATO cannot supply its aviation equipment to Ukraine, especially since there are no experienced pilots in Ukraine capable of fighting on it. But in NATO countries, such as Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, and also Poland, there is Soviet equipment that can be replaced with NATO equipment by supplying Soviet equipment to Ukraine. That is why NATO will be able to quickly update Ukraine’s fleet of attack helicopters and aircraft; the only thing it will not be able to do instantly is to increase the number of combat-ready pilots if they die in the same numbers as before.
It makes no sense to supply all kinds of Soviet armored vehicles such as armored personnel carriers, infantry fighting vehicles, BRDMs and tanks from new NATO countries, since Ukraine has thousands of units of this equipment. In addition, there is still a powerful base for the restoration and repair of armored vehicles. The most important source of income for the Ukrainian military-industrial complex was the supply of Soviet armored vehicles to countries in Africa and Asia, as well as their equipment and maintenance. But, nevertheless, the number of destroyed aircraft, helicopters and tanks is extremely high, and Ukrainian troops are suffering significant losses.
What will happen next?
Sergei Kurginyan was afraid, primarily as a theorist rather than a practitioner, of the influence of Russian nationalists and the forces behind them on Strelkov’s personality and the management of the DPR. This influence was created thanks to the contacts and assistance of the Sputnik and Pogrom website and its activists to the Slavyansk militia.
Strelkov did the right thing or not when he left Slavyansk - it’s hard to say now. It all depends on whether he can fulfill his obligation and form coordinated, combat-ready army units in the DPR. If this succeeds, we can expect a counteroffensive.
On the Southern Front, as well as in the area of the Dolzhanskoye checkpoint, where the Ukrainian Army and the National Guard, thanks to the crazy ideas of the unfortunate command to cut off the LPR and DPR from the borders with Russia, are already in danger of encirclement and complete destruction, the harbingers of which have already happened. The inept strategic planning of the military operation and the fragmented actions of the so-called units played their part. territorial defense, the army, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, elementary negligence, as well as propaganda blaming Russia for all the troubles.
The militia is pushing troops out of the airports of Lugansk and Donetsk. These actions intensified with the arrival of Strelkov. Thus, it is reliably known that in Donetsk, until very recently, there was a rotation and strengthening of the group at the airport. Their encirclement and neutralization will allow us to concentrate forces for the offensive and facilitate coordination of actions within the republics.
It is certainly too early for supporters of Novorossiya to rejoice, but there has been a positive shift in the military struggle of Donetsk and Lugansk. We'll see soon how the situation will move forward. If Strelkov can organize an army, suppress internal resistance at airports, and establish clear coordination of troops within the republics, we can expect an offensive, primarily in the southern direction, including towards Mariupol, Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye, as well as an expansion of the zone of responsibility around Donetsk.
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.