Korean crisis: The moment of truth is approaching
For several days now, the whole world has been anxiously watching the news that the United States may launch a preemptive strike on North Korean military targets. The reason to unsheath the club was the news that the Juche people were planning to carry out the sixth nuclear test explosion this coming weekend, dedicated to the 105th anniversary of the birth of the founder of the DPRK, Kim Il Sung, as a kind of festive fireworks display.
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Washington and Pyongyang exchanged threatening statements, and now everyone is waiting for the onset of “Time H.” The American side, which has a military and geopolitical advantage in the region, indicated its intentions not only in words, but also in deeds, by moving a naval strike group to the Korean Peninsula. At first there were two destroyers carrying Tomahawk cruise missiles, like the ones that struck a Syrian air base last week, but now they have added a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier with an accompanying convoy and a pair of nuclear-powered submarines with cruise missiles on board.
In an impressive demonstration aimed at achieving several goals at once, the United States launched its most powerful MOAB (Mother of All Bombs) volumetric detonating munition in Afghanistan. These goals, it seems to me, are twofold: to impress the Kim regime with their non-nuclear “Kuzka mother”, and also to prove to the world their commitment to the fight against ISIS. But did showman Trump manage to convince all interested parties?
It is interesting that, in stirring up a new Korean crisis, Trump did not lie and posed a point-blank question to China: either the PRC leadership will force the Juche people to submit to American demands, or the United States itself will begin to bring the rebellious North Korea to a common denominator, and on behalf of and on behalf of “all mankind.” .
Trump's decision cannot be called spontaneous. In 1953, the Korean War did not end with the artificial division of the country into North and South. The American interventionists, who managed to obtain the status of “international peacekeeping forces” from the UN, had their sides severely broken during the Korean War. An attempt to recoup geopolitical losses after the victory of Mao's communists in China, the goals in Korea were not fully achieved. The pro-fascist dictatorship of South Korea was balanced by the communist North. The Korean War was the bloodiest conflict since World War II, claiming millions of lives.
Official American data on losses in Korea are underestimated by almost an order of magnitude and are estimated at no less than half a million people, otherwise it is impossible to explain the hysterical reaction of General MacArthur, who persistently demanded that President Truman nuclear bomb North Korea. Fortunately, Truman came to his senses in time and replaced the commander of American troops in Korea with a more moderate one.
However, as can be observed, the Korean post-traumatic syndrome turned out to be much deeper and longer lasting for the United States than the Vietnamese one. The hatred felt by all American administrations for the DPRK indicates that the issue of the existence of North Korea is fundamental for the United States, that in Washington for 64 years “they just can’t eat.”
When all sorts of pseudo-democratic journalistic rubbish begins to suck up the DPRK, the issue of poverty, the totalitarian barracks system, “mortar executions” and other nonsense always comes up. To think that for 70 years now a small country has been living under the most severe economic sanctions from the “world community,” which severely limits its development and the well-being of its citizens, is not enough brainpower.
Meanwhile, today few people remember that until the early 1980s, none of the Koreas had an economic advantage, but the dictatorial regime in Seoul, starting with the American puppet Syngman Rhee, was corrupt and very cruel. The communist regime of the Kims, compared to Syngman Rhee and Park Chung Hee, was simply vegetarian, except for the militant rhetoric.
Who now remembers the student uprising in the South Korean city of Gwangju, drowned in blood by regular tank and parachute units of General Park Chung-hee? It is still unknown exactly how many thousands of dead the suppression of civil disobedience cost. And there were several such gwangju in South Korea. And this is not counting the tens of thousands who were extrajudicially killed and tortured under Syngman Rhee only on suspicion of sympathizing with North Korea.
Everything changed in the early 80s, when American curators decided to organize several military dictatorships in Southeast Asia into exemplary showcases of capitalism. South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore received favorable attention. There was no military dictatorship in Singapore, but power was held by “triads”, who were carefully kept secret in the process. There was a positive experience - post-war Japan became the first that the West allowed to become the “Asian Tiger”.
Investment gold rained down on the new “Asian tigers”, they were given most favored nation treatment, and Japan, for example, was obliged to send its engineers and scientists on Korean business trips to give lectures and exchange experiences.
The calculation of Western curators was accurate: South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore were small states, tightly controlled by the military or “triads”, whose population consisted mainly of workaholics.
Of course, the hereditary Juche regime established by Kim Il Sung in the DPRK is a rather strange state structure. But people live there, relying on their own strength and resources, and, most importantly, they do not teach anyone to live according to their charter. And at least with this tenacity they are able to command respect.
Moreover, all their “shoals” can be attributed to costs and deformations from external pressure on the country for quite a long time. The DPRK, with all its oddities and problems, is developing, and recently an ultra-modern scientific center was built in the republic, and the cities differ for the better from South Asian and Eastern European cities, which have been turned into viper houses. But the choice is from two or more candidates!
The main thing is that the Juche people are sane and do not spoil their neighbors - Russia and China. South Korea is a special issue. It was from there that there were constant attempts and attempts on the leadership of the DPRK, and the occupying American contingent even brought nuclear weapons to the southerners, mining the demarcation line between the North and the South with nuclear landmines. The United States has withdrawn all these nuclear gadgets from South Korea, but is already thinking about returning thermonuclear aerial bombs to their local arsenals.
Taking into account the long-lasting heartburn of Uncle Sam, who did not strangle the northerners economically, but dreams of revenge by force, the North Korean leadership has no other way than to develop its own nuclear and missile deterrent forces. After the collapse of the USSR and the bloc of socialist countries, the DPRK was left practically alone with the old aggressor. The country tightened its belts even tighter and began to look for ways to cooperate with states that are opponents of the United States and are on the verge of creating nuclear weapons and long-range missiles.
It must be said that the DPRK knows how to keep its secrets. According to data from open sources, North Korean nuclear scientists have not only built a full nuclear weapons production cycle, but also learned how to design compact charges. As for missile weapons, the DPRK has currently created ten missiles for various purposes on its own.
At least two short-range missile systems - the KN-01 anti-ship complex (analogous to the Soviet Termit system) and KN-02 Toksa (analogous to the Soviet Tochka missile).
Four medium-range missile systems, which are deeply modernized Soviet R-17/R-300 missiles, built through “creative understanding” of samples and documentation package purchased from Egypt.
Four complexes of multi-stage intercontinental ballistic missiles, including the Taepodong-2 dual-use missile, capable of launching artificial satellites into orbit or delivering a thermonuclear charge to a distance of 12 thousand km.
Another missile, the KN-11, is an underwater launch missile for use with submarines. The Taepodong-2 and KN-11 are still undergoing testing, but most of the medium-range missiles have been tested and put into combat duty. Moreover, the DPRK army already has at least 150 - 200 medium-range missiles based on SCUD systems. The number of “points” and anti-ship missiles is unknown, but given their relative cheapness, the DPRK has probably created a reserve in case of war.
The United States is capable of deploying the forces of the Seventh Fleet in the region, as well as B-52, B-1B, B-2 strategic bombers from the Guam base, against the DPRK. Having about 70 thousand military personnel at its disposal, the United States is capable of launching massive strikes from the sea and from the air, as well as conducting landing operations, without attracting additional forces. In addition, earlier US plans to deploy special operations in North Korea are known, including the physical elimination of the DPRK leadership and sabotage at nuclear infrastructure facilities.
For a number of reasons, the DPRK is more limited in its choice of goals and means. The country's leadership openly warned Trump that it would not sit idly by and announced a list of possible targets. Three American military bases, as well as the residence of the President of South Korea, bases in Japan and even in the United States could be subjected to a retaliatory attack. The KPA General Staff also warned of its readiness to attack the aircraft carrier Carl Vinson.
A very unpleasant surprise for Americans could be North Korean submarines with underwater-launched KN-11 missiles, capable of hitting targets deep in American territory. It seems that the sea launch program has recently been among the top priorities of the DPRK leadership.
There is currently a war of nerves going on. The Japanese leadership has already fallen victim to it, first hysterically announcing an imminent sarin missile attack on Japan by the Juche, and then in pleading intonations appealing to Trump not to take any steps against the DPRK without consulting them. It’s clear: where is Trump and where is Mr. Abe. A good example to note for all the political “six” who want to become a NATO springboard.
Informed observers note that at the moment both sides are taking a wait-and-see approach. Trump (probably not without pressure from experts from the Pentagon) even backed down a little and said that economic and political methods were chosen among the primary measures to influence the DPRK, while the military was in third place.
On the other hand, the threat of military conflict remains. The parties made calculated moves, and the next step remains up to the Juche people - will they blow up or not?
If Kim's balls really are made of molybdenum, then the tests will take place. And then Trump will have to pass the exam. And a very difficult exam. After all, an attack on the DPRK could cause not only a regional military conflict, but something even worse.
But if Donnie leaks and turns out to be a cheap market clown, then this leak could severely overshadow the rest of his presidential term. Perhaps even for a short time.
All that was left before the explosion was nothing. The moment of truth is approaching.
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