Poroshenko’s nightmare: If Kharkov suddenly comes to the aid of Donetsk
In the spring, the authorities were able to deal the strongest blows to the dissenters, organizing (or not preventing) a massacre in Odessa and organizing mass arrests of activists in Kharkov. Because of this, as well as the defeatist position of the local elites, the two most powerful regions of the southeast were withdrawn from the fight and did not support Donbass.
Ukrainians are actively accumulating forces and military equipment in the south of the Donetsk region for a decisive blow to the metropolis. Moreover, rather than risk going on a full-scale offensive again, they continue to bomb and shell unruly cities, hoping that the population will tire of the war and surrender. Meanwhile, the militias are strengthening their defense lines and repairing military equipment they received as trophies.
Soon a new battle is inevitable, which will be even larger and bloodier. It is difficult to predict its outcome. On the one hand, Ukraine, with a population of 35 million, clearly surpasses Donbass in terms of resources for waging war. It is possible that because of this, Kyiv will simply be able to overwhelm the enemy with cannon fodder, and none of Strelkov’s military talents or the valor of the militia will be able to do anything. Moreover, despite the losses, the Ukrainians were able to take control of a significant part of Donbass, and the ring around Donetsk is gradually shrinking. On the other hand, the militias are on the defensive, which means they suffer much fewer losses. In addition, they are local, know all the roads and terrain features of the region, and can always maneuver unnoticed, deliver sudden attacks and instantly disappear. So Strelkov may well create an insurmountable defense against which the next Ukrainian attack will crash.
Could some region of Novorossiya open a “second front”, coming to the aid of Donetsk? In Odessa, the situation for anti-Nazi forces is quite complicated. The city received a stunning psychological blow on May 2, from which it has still not recovered. In addition, serious forces of nationalists who control the region have been transferred there, and reinforcements from Donbass will not reach southern Palmyra. However, the Transnistrian Republic is located nearby, for which the current Ukrainian government poses a real threat. Therefore, if Odessa residents decide to revolt, they can count on secret help from the PMR.
However, in my opinion, it is most likely that the next blow to neo-Nazis will occur in the Kharkov region. Firstly, it borders both Donbass and Russia, thanks to which after the start of the uprising it will be easy to transfer a militia strike group and the necessary ammunition there. Secondly, in Kharkov the number of active supporters and opponents of a united Ukraine is approximately equal, which gives each force a chance for success, even if the bulk of ordinary people remain aloof from the conflict. In addition, this metropolis is one of the largest economic centers of Ukraine and the very fact of an uprising there will be a strong image blow to the Poroshenko regime. From a military point of view, if the rebels in Kharkov are successful, the entire northern group of Ukrainian forces in the Donbass will find themselves between two fires and will be forced to retreat to the west in order to avoid encirclement and extermination. At the same time, the Ukrainian army will have to abandon its rear units and warehouses with weapons and fuels and lubricants, which will significantly strengthen the militias.
In addition, the Shebelinskoye gas field is located in the Kharkov region, control over which in the conditions of the approaching cold season will become a serious trump card. So Kharkov is a key region in the current confrontation. If Kyiv manages to maintain power over it, then Novorossiya, most likely, will not be able to go beyond the two regions, but if the city goes over to the side of the People's Republics, this will be the beginning of a chain reaction that will then cover the entire southeast of Ukraine.
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